The market is chasing the high-scoring trends from last night, but Bryan Bash’s total pick leans toward the under as two depleted offenses struggle to find consistency over 102 possessions.
The Setup: Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is laying 5.5 points at home against a Memphis squad that’s been gutted by injuries, and at first glance, that number looks generous for a Mavericks team that’s lost six straight at American Airlines Center. But this line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. the projection has Dallas by just 1.9 points, which means we’re looking at a 3.6-point edge toward Memphis plus the points. Both teams are hovering around the same net rating—Dallas at -3.1, Memphis at -2.8—and when you factor in the offensive rebounding gap favoring the Grizzlies by 3.1 percentage points and a pace blend sitting at 102.1 possessions, this spread screams inflated home favorite. The market’s disrespecting Memphis here, and I’m taking the points all day long.
The Grizzlies just got torched 133-112 by Golden State on Wednesday, but context matters. Memphis is missing Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Dallas isn’t much better off—Cooper Flagg is out with a shoulder issue, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II are done for the season, and P.J. Washington is questionable with an ankle sprain. This is a skeleton crew matchup, and the possessions math tells a different story than the spread suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Memphis Grizzlies (21-36) at Dallas Mavericks (21-37)
Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
Time: 8:30 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
TV: Home: KFAA-TV, Mavs.com | Away: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (-110) | Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 238.5 (-110) | Under 238.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks -217 | Memphis Grizzlies +174
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Dallas -5.5 because the Mavericks are at home and just got embarrassed by Sacramento on Thursday night, losing 130-121 despite Naji Marshall’s 36-point explosion. Books are banking on a bounce-back narrative and home-court advantage to justify the spread. But the efficiency gap is too narrow to support this number. Dallas posts a 110.7 offensive rating and 113.8 defensive rating, while Memphis checks in at 113.1 offensive rating and 115.9 defensive rating. That’s a net rating differential of just 0.3 points per 100 possessions in Memphis’s favor—basically priced correctly when you account for home-court advantage.
The pace blend of 102.1 possessions pushes this game into up-tempo territory, which benefits Memphis’s transition game even without Morant. Ty Jerome has been running the show at 19.6 points and 5.6 assists per game, shooting 51.5% from the field and 41.2% from three. The Grizzlies’ offensive rebounding advantage—25.8% to Dallas’s 22.7%—creates extra possessions that narrow the margin further. When you project this out over 102 possessions, that 3.1-percentage-point OREB edge translates to roughly three additional second-chance opportunities for Memphis, which matters in a game where both teams struggle defensively.
The total of 238.5 looks inflated as well. The projection sits at 231.5, creating a 7-point edge toward the under. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating, but the offensive firepower just isn’t there with so many key contributors sidelined. this number points to recency bias after Dallas allowed 130 to the Kings last night.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Memphis is running on fumes, but they’ve still got enough offensive firepower to keep games competitive. Ty Jerome is doubtful with a thigh injury after scoring 22 points against Golden State, which would be a massive blow. If Jerome sits, the backcourt minutes shift to Scotty Pippen Jr., Walter Clayton, and Javon Small—a significant downgrade in shooting efficiency. GG Jackson dropped 24 points and eight rebounds in Wednesday’s loss, showing he can carry the scoring load when needed.
The Grizzlies average 115.4 points per game on 46.0% shooting, and their 57.2% true shooting percentage is actually slightly better than Dallas’s 56.9%. Memphis generates 28.8 assists per game compared to Dallas’s 25.1, which speaks to better ball movement despite the personnel losses. The turnover rate sits at 13.1%, slightly better than Dallas’s 12.7%, so ball security is within noise.
In clutch situations—last five minutes, score within five—Memphis posts a 38.2% field goal percentage and a 12-21 record. That’s a 36.4% win rate in tight games, which tells you they struggle to close but don’t get blown out often. On the road, Memphis is 9-18, but they’ve covered in several competitive losses this month.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is in full tank mode, sitting at 21-37 with a 14-17 home record. The Mavericks just lost their sixth consecutive home game, and the energy level is concerning. Naji Marshall had a career night with 36 points on Thursday, but he’s averaging 15.6 points per game on 53.3% shooting for the season. Cooper Flagg, their leading scorer at 20.4 points per game, is out with a shoulder injury for the fifth straight contest.
The Mavericks’ offense runs at a 110.7 rating, and they’re shooting 47.4% from the field with a 34.4% three-point percentage. The ball movement is stagnant—25.1 assists per game ranks near the bottom of the league, and their 59.1% assist rate is well below Memphis’s 69.1%. P.J. Washington is questionable with an ankle sprain, which would remove another 14.3 points and 7.1 rebounds from the rotation.
In clutch situations, Dallas posts a 41.3% field goal percentage and a 15-23 record, good for a 39.5% win rate. That’s marginally better than Memphis, but not enough to justify a 5.5-point spread. The Mavericks are also dealing with a back-to-back situation after playing Sacramento on Thursday, which impacts defensive intensity and rebounding effort.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the glass and in transition. Memphis holds a 3.1-percentage-point offensive rebounding edge, which over 102 possessions translates to roughly three extra second-chance opportunities. That’s significant when you’re dealing with two teams that struggle to defend consistently. The Grizzlies also move the ball better—28.8 assists per game compared to Dallas’s 25.1—which creates cleaner looks in the halfcourt.
The pace blend of 102.1 possessions favors Memphis’s transition attack, even without Morant. GG Jackson and Javon Small can push the tempo off defensive rebounds, and Dallas’s back-to-back fatigue will show up in transition defense. The Mavericks’ offensive mismatch sits at -5.2 per 100 possessions, meaning Dallas’s offense versus Memphis’s defense creates a moderate gap, but it’s not wide enough to overcome the rebounding and ball movement disadvantages.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup: two depleted rosters grinding through the final stretch of a lost season. Dallas has no incentive to push starters heavy minutes on a back-to-back, and Memphis—despite the injuries—has shown they can hang around in up-tempo games. The efficiency gap is within noise, the pace favors Memphis’s style, and the rebounding edge tilts toward the Grizzlies. This is exactly the spot where Dallas burns you if you’re laying points on name recognition alone.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Memphis +5.5 for 2 units. The model projects Dallas by just 1.9 points, which creates a 3.6-point edge toward the Grizzlies. The offensive rebounding gap, better ball movement, and pace advantage give Memphis multiple paths to cover even if they don’t win outright. Dallas is 0-6 at home in their last six, and the back-to-back fatigue is real. The main risk is Ty Jerome’s status—if he’s ruled out, that’s a significant hit to Memphis’s backcourt shooting—but even with Jerome doubtful, the depth pieces have shown they can score in volume.
The total also offers value. I’m taking Under 238.5 for 1 unit. The projection sits at 231.5, creating a 7-point edge. Both teams are banged up, the defensive effort should be higher in a competitive game, and the offensive firepower just isn’t there with so many key players sidelined. this number points to overreaction to Thursday’s 130-point explosion by Sacramento.
BASH’S BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 for 2 units.
