Houston has turned Toyota Center into a fortress this season, sporting one of the NBA’s best home records. Now they face a Memphis squad missing its primary playmaker. Is this 10.5-point point spread a gift for Rockets bettors, or can Jaren Jackson Jr. spark a massive upset prediction?
The Setup: Grizzlies at Rockets
Houston’s laying 10.5 points at home against a Memphis squad that’s limping into Toyota Center at 18-25. The Rockets sit fourth in the West at 27-16, and that 15-3 home mark tells you exactly why the market doesn’t respect the Grizzlies here. But this number screams pace and possession math once you account for what Memphis can still do when they push tempo. The Rockets are elite at home, but double-digit spreads in uptempo spots create backdoor value when rotation depth narrows late. Houston’s got Kevin Durant averaging 26.3 points and Alperen Sengun controlling the paint at 21.2 points and 9.0 boards per night. Memphis counters with Ja Morant at 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, plus Jaren Jackson Jr. chipping in 18.9 points. The talent gap is real, but the spread assumes Memphis can’t hang for three quarters in a game that could easily see 95-plus possessions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets
Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Toyota Center
TV: Space City Home Network (Home), FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Houston Rockets -10.5 (-110) | Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston Rockets -500 | Memphis Grizzlies +362
- Total: Over 222.5 (-110) | Under 222.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s pricing Houston’s home dominance and Memphis’s road mediocrity. That 15-3 home record for the Rockets creates legitimate respect, especially when you’re facing a Grizzlies team that’s just 8-11 on the road. The -500 moneyline tells you the market expects Houston to win outright without much drama. But 10.5 points isn’t about who wins—it’s about margin, and that’s where possession count becomes critical. The total sitting at 222.5 suggests the oddsmakers expect a faster-paced game, which makes sense given Memphis’s tendency to push in transition when Morant’s orchestrating. Houston’s got the firepower with Durant and Sengun, but they’re also dealing with Steven Adams out after exiting Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. That removes some interior depth, though Sengun’s still the focal point at 9.0 rebounds per game. The spread assumes Houston controls tempo and executes in the halfcourt, but if Memphis can force transition opportunities and keep this game in the mid-90s possession range, 10.5 points becomes a lot of real estate to cover.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies just dropped a game to New Orleans where Saddiq Bey torched them for 36 points, including 19 in the fourth quarter alone. That’s a defense that’s leaking late in games, which is concerning when you’re catching double digits on the road. Morant’s averaging 8.1 assists per night, and that playmaking keeps Memphis competitive in uptempo spots where they can generate easy looks in transition. Jackson Jr. provides 18.9 points and rim protection, but he’s not consistent enough to anchor a defense against Durant and Sengun operating in the halfcourt. Cedric Coward’s contributing 14.0 points and 6.4 rebounds, giving Memphis some secondary scoring, but this roster lacks the depth to match Houston’s rotation. Brandon Clarke remains out with a calf injury, and Zach Edey’s still sidelined with an ankle issue that’s kept him out for weeks. Ty Jerome hasn’t made his Grizzlies debut yet as he works back from a calf strain. The injury situation limits Memphis’s ability to sustain defensive intensity across 48 minutes, especially in a road spot where they’re already 8-11 this season.
Houston Rockets Breakdown: The Other Side
Houston just handled Detroit 111-104 behind Durant’s 32 points, and that’s the version of the Rockets that makes 10.5 points feel achievable. Durant’s averaging 26.3 points with 5.5 boards and 4.6 assists, and he’s the steady halfcourt scorer who can exploit Memphis’s perimeter defense. Sengun’s the engine at 21.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists—he’s a legitimate triple-threat big who can punish smaller lineups in the post and facilitate from the elbow. Amen Thompson adds 18.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, giving Houston another versatile piece who can defend multiple positions and push pace when opportunities arise. That 15-3 home record isn’t an accident—Houston’s executing at a high level in front of their crowd, and they’re deep enough to rotate fresh bodies against a Memphis team that’s already thin. Steven Adams is out with an ankle injury after exiting Sunday’s game, which removes some veteran presence in the paint, but Sengun’s workload doesn’t change. Aaron Holiday is probable after missing five games with a back issue, though his minutes have been inconsistent all season. The Rockets control tempo at home, and when they’re dictating pace in the halfcourt, they’re tough to outscore over 48 minutes.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on possession count and transition efficiency. Memphis wants to push the pace and generate easy looks before Houston’s defense can set up. If the Grizzlies can force 95-plus possessions and keep this game in the 115-120 scoring range, they’ve got a chance to stay within the number late. Morant’s 8.1 assists per game suggest he’s capable of creating those transition opportunities, and Jackson Jr.’s scoring gives them a secondary option when the halfcourt slows down. But Houston’s built to control tempo at home. Durant and Sengun operate efficiently in the halfcourt, and Thompson’s versatility allows the Rockets to switch defensively and limit Memphis’s transition looks. The total at 222.5 implies a faster game, which favors Memphis’s ability to hang around, but if Houston dictates pace and keeps this game in the low-90s possession range, the Grizzlies don’t have the firepower to keep up. The injury situation matters here—Memphis is missing Clarke and Edey, which limits their interior depth against Sengun’s 9.0 rebounds per night. Houston’s rotation depth allows them to stay fresh late, and that’s where double-digit spreads get covered. If Memphis can’t sustain defensive intensity in the fourth quarter, this game could balloon late.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Memphis to cover +10.5 in a spot where the pace keeps them competitive for three quarters. Houston’s the better team, and that 15-3 home record is legitimate, but 10.5 points requires the Rockets to pull away late, and I’m not convinced they’ve got the separation against a Memphis team that can push tempo. Morant’s playmaking and Jackson Jr.’s scoring give the Grizzlies enough offensive firepower to stay within striking distance through 36 minutes, and the total at 222.5 suggests the market expects possessions. If this game hits 95 possessions, Memphis has the talent to hang around even if they lose outright. The risk is Houston’s depth wearing down Memphis late, especially with Clarke and Edey out, but I’ll trust the Grizzlies to cover the number in a faster-paced game where they can generate transition looks. This isn’t about Memphis winning—it’s about staying within two possessions late, and the math supports that outcome.
BASH’S BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 for 2 units.
