The betting market has set a line that screams “trap game” at the Target Center. While the Minnesota Timberwolves are laying 7.5 points as the home favorite, their 2-0 record without Anthony Edwards is inflating the spread against a dangerous Memphis Grizzlies squad. Bash analyzes why the injury uncertainty for both stars (Edwards and Morant) creates value on the underdog, especially with Jaren Jackson Jr. coming off a 31-point explosion.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Timberwolves
This line’s a joke, and not in the way you’d think. Minnesota laying 7.5 points at home against a Grizzlies squad that’s been inconsistent all season? The books are begging you to take the Wolves and lay the points, but I’m not buying what they’re selling. Memphis rolls in at 12-14, sitting ninth in the West, while Minnesota’s 17-9 and looking like a legitimate conference threat. But here’s the thing—this spread screams trap game written all over it.
The Timberwolves just went 2-0 without Anthony Edwards, who’s questionable again for this matchup with a foot issue. Meanwhile, Ja Morant’s status is up in the air with an ankle problem, and the Grizzlies are coming off a statement win against the Clippers where Jaren Jackson Jr. dropped 31 and Cam Spencer had a career night with 27. Now Spencer’s out for personal reasons, and suddenly we’ve got a game where both teams are dealing with significant injury concerns. The market’s disrespecting Memphis here, and I’ve seen this movie before—it usually doesn’t end well for the chalk-eaters.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 17, 2025, 8:00 ET
Venue: Target Center
Spread: Timberwolves -7.5 (-110) / Grizzlies +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -294 / Grizzlies +230
Total: Over/Under 233.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down what Vegas is really doing here. Minnesota’s 9-4 at home this season, and they just proved they can win without their superstar by taking down Sacramento 117-103. Julius Randle dropped 24 with 9 boards, Jaden McDaniels added 21, and Naz Reid put up a double-double with 20 and 11. The narrative writes itself: Wolves are rolling, they’ve figured out how to win without Ant-Man, and they’re getting him back against a below-.500 Grizzlies team.
But here’s what the oddsmakers are counting on—you forgetting that Memphis is 6-7 on the road, which isn’t terrible, and they just dismantled a Clippers team 121-103 with Jackson Jr. going nuclear in the first half. The Grizzlies have weapons, and when Jaren gets rolling, he’s one of the toughest covers in the league at 17.4 PPG. Add in Zach Edey’s interior presence at 13.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG, and you’ve got a team that can control the paint.
The -294 moneyline on Minnesota tells you everything about how lopsided the market views this game. That’s nearly a three-to-one favorite at home, which is substantial. But I’m hammering this number before it moves, because if Edwards sits again or is limited, this line could shift dramatically. Sharp money knows what’s up here—you’re getting value on a live dog that’s proven they can score in bunches.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are sitting at 12-14, and while that’s not pretty, they’re not the pushover this spread suggests. Ja Morant’s averaging 17.7 PPG with 7.5 APG, and even though he’s questionable, his presence alone changes defensive schemes. When Ja’s on the floor, Memphis runs, and that pace can create problems for even the best defensive teams.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is the real X-factor here at 17.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG. He just went off for 31 against the Clippers with 21 in the first half alone, showing he can take over games when he’s locked in. The loss of Cam Spencer hurts—he had a career-high 27 in that Clippers win—but Jaylen Wells stepped up with 16, and rookie Cedric Coward added 12. This team has depth, and they’re not afraid to use it.
The real concern is Brandon Clarke’s questionable status with a knee issue, which could impact their frontcourt rotation. But with Zach Edey averaging a double-double at 13.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG, they’ve got the size to bang with Minnesota’s big men. The Grizzlies are 6-7 on the road, which means they’ve won nearly half their away games—not exactly a team that rolls over when they leave Memphis.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota’s 17-9 record and 9-4 at Target Center looks impressive on paper, and it should. Anthony Edwards is having an MVP-caliber season at 28.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 3.8 APG, but he’s questionable again with that foot issue. The Wolves proved they can win without him, but asking them to cover 7.5 without their best player is a different story.
Julius Randle’s been outstanding at 23.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 5.8 APG, essentially giving Minnesota a second star who can create his own shot and facilitate. Jaden McDaniels at 15.8 PPG provides that two-way versatility, and Naz Reid’s bench scoring punch is invaluable. But here’s the problem—Mike Conley’s out with Achilles tendinopathy, which means they’re missing their floor general and veteran presence.
The Wolves are sixth in the Western Conference, but they’re not some dominant force that should be laying 7.5 against a team with legitimate NBA talent. They just beat Sacramento by 14 without Edwards, but the Kings are 13-13 and hardly a measuring stick. This is exactly the spot where Minnesota burns you—coming off a feel-good win, getting public love, and facing a team that’s hungry to prove they belong in the playoff picture.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to three key factors: health, pace, and the paint battle. If Edwards sits or is limited, Minnesota loses their primary shot creator and the guy who commands double teams. If Morant plays, Memphis gets their engine back, and they’ll push tempo to create transition opportunities.
The frontcourt matchup is fascinating. Edey’s 11.1 RPG against Minnesota’s interior defense could be the difference. If the Grizzlies can control the glass and get second-chance points, they’ll keep this game close. Minnesota’s 9-4 at home, but they’re also dealing with injuries that could level the playing field.
The total of 233.0 suggests Vegas expects a relatively high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams have offensive firepower. But with key players questionable on both sides, that number feels inflated. The real question is whether Minnesota can build enough separation to cover 7.5, and I’m not convinced they can.
Memphis is 6-7 on the road, which means they’ve covered in plenty of away games this season. Minnesota’s 8-5 on the road themselves, showing they’re not invincible at home. This is a classic look-ahead spot for the Wolves, and I’ve seen this movie before—the home favorite gets too much respect, and the live dog hangs around all night.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 without hesitation. This line’s a gift, and I’m hammering it before the market wakes up. The injury situations on both sides create too much uncertainty to lay nearly eight points, even with Minnesota at home. If Edwards is out or limited, this game stays within a possession or two all night. If Morant plays, Memphis has the firepower to keep pace.
The Grizzlies just proved they can score 121 on the road against a solid Clippers defense. Jaren Jackson Jr. is playing at an All-Star level, and Edey’s interior presence gives them a dimension that can exploit Minnesota’s frontcourt. The public’s all over Minnesota after their impressive wins without Edwards, which means we’re getting value on the dog.
The Play: Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 (-110) for 2 units
This is exactly the spot where Vegas traps the public into laying too many points with a home favorite. Sharp money knows what’s up here—you’re getting a talented team at nearly eight points in a game that could easily come down to the final possession. I’ll take the points all day long and sleep like a baby knowing I’m on the right side of this number.
