The Grizzlies head to the Moda Center as 7-point underdogs despite holding a superior efficiency rating and a better turnover margin. Our betting preview breaks down the ball-movement gap to provide a high-value ATS pick for this Western Conference matchup.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Trail Blazers
Portland is laying 7 points at home against a Memphis squad that’s been quietly outperforming its 20-29 record in almost every efficiency metric that matters. The Grizzlies come in off a road win in Sacramento where Ty Jerome dropped 28 and Cam Spencer hit clutch buckets late. Portland just got torched at home by Phoenix, surrendering 130 points to a Suns team that shot 11-of-14 from one of their role players. The market sees a home favorite with a slightly better record. I see a line that’s overpricing venue and underpricing the possessions math.
Memphis shoots 45.6% from the field compared to Portland’s 44.8%. They shoot 34.9% from three versus Portland’s 33.6%. They assist on 29.0 possessions per game compared to Portland’s 24.3. They turn it over 1.8 fewer times per game. And their plus/minus of -1.7 is a full point better than Portland’s -2.9. This isn’t a seven-point gap in quality. It’s a coin flip being sold as a blowout.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
Date: Friday, February 6, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
TV: Home: KUNP 16, BlazerVision | Away: NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SE
Spread: Portland -7.0 (-110) | Memphis +7.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Portland -269 | Memphis +213
Total: 233.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Portland’s 13-13 home record and their three-game edge in the standings. That’s surface-level logic. When you dig into the season averages, Memphis is the more efficient basketball team across the board. The Grizzlies shoot better, pass better, and protect the ball better. Portland’s only statistical advantages are offensive rebounding—14.0 per game versus Memphis’s 12.0—and a marginal edge in defensive activity with 8.1 steals plus 4.8 blocks compared to Memphis’s 7.8 and 5.1.
But here’s the problem with that rebounding edge: Memphis controls possessions through ball movement and efficiency, not second chances. They’re averaging 29.0 assists per game, nearly five more than Portland. That’s the signature of a team that generates clean looks in the half-court and doesn’t need offensive boards to sustain scoring runs. Portland, meanwhile, is relying on Deni Avdija to do everything—25.5 points, 7.2 boards, 6.7 assists per game—and when he’s not dominating the ball, the offense stagnates.
The injury situation tilts this further. Memphis is without Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, but those are interior players who don’t directly impact their perimeter-oriented offense. Ty Jerome is healthy and averaging 22.3 points on 61.1% shooting with 43.8% from three. Ja Morant is back and facilitating at 8.1 assists per game. Portland is missing Damian Lillard for the season and Matisse Thybulle, which thins their perimeter depth. Seven points assumes Memphis is overmatched. The data says otherwise.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are built around two dynamic guards who can both score and facilitate. Jerome is shooting an absurd 61.1% from the field and 43.8% from three while averaging 22.3 points. Morant adds 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, though his 41.0% shooting and 23.5% from three show he’s still finding his rhythm. The supporting cast is balanced: Santi Aldama at 14.0 points and 6.7 boards, Cedric Coward contributing 13.6 points, and Cam Spencer proving he can hit big shots late, as he did with 20 points in Sacramento.
Memphis’s efficiency edge is real. They’re turning the ball over just 15.3 times per game compared to Portland’s 17.1. That’s nearly two extra possessions per game where Memphis isn’t giving the ball away. Over a full game, that compounds into better shot selection and fewer transition opportunities for the opponent. Their 45.6% field goal percentage ranks ahead of Portland’s 44.8%, and their three-point shooting is a full percentage point better.
The Grizzlies’ road record of 9-13 doesn’t inspire confidence, but their plus/minus of -1.7 suggests they’re competitive in most games. They’re not getting blown out. They’re losing close ones, which means they’re live as a seven-point dog in a matchup where the efficiency gap is minimal.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s offense runs through Deni Avdija, who’s having a breakout season at 25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. Shaedon Sharpe adds 21.8 points, and Jerami Grant chips in 18.7. Jrue Holiday is facilitating at 6.6 assists per game, but the Blazers are averaging just 24.3 assists as a team—nearly five fewer than Memphis. That’s a ball-dominant offense that relies on individual creation rather than flow.
The defensive numbers are concerning. Portland just allowed 130 points at home to Phoenix, and their -2.9 plus/minus is worse than Memphis’s despite playing in a weaker conference slot. They’re averaging 17.1 turnovers per game, which means they’re giving up nearly two more possessions per game than Memphis. Against a Grizzlies team that shoots 43.8% from three with Jerome leading the way, those extra possessions turn into points in a hurry.
Portland’s offensive rebounding—14.0 per game—is their best edge, but it’s not enough to overcome the efficiency gap. They’re shooting 44.8% from the field and 33.6% from three, both worse than Memphis. Their home record of 13-13 is mediocre, and they’ve shown no ability to defend consistently. The market is overvaluing home court and undervaluing the matchup dynamics.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to ball movement versus individual creation. Memphis averages 29.0 assists per game compared to Portland’s 24.3. That’s nearly five more possessions per game where Memphis is generating an open look through ball movement rather than isolation. Over 100 possessions, that compounds into cleaner shots, better spacing, and fewer contested looks. Portland’s offense is more reliant on Avdija and Sharpe creating off the dribble, which leads to more turnovers—17.1 per game versus Memphis’s 15.3.
The turnover differential is critical. Memphis is protecting the ball nearly two possessions better per game. Against a Portland defense that just allowed 130 points at home, those extra possessions turn into easy buckets. Ty Jerome shooting 61.1% from the field and 43.8% from three means Memphis can punish Portland’s perimeter defense every time they get a clean look. Morant’s 8.1 assists per game ensures the ball is moving and finding the open man.
Portland’s only real edge is offensive rebounding—14.0 per game versus Memphis’s 12.0—but that’s a two-board difference that doesn’t offset the efficiency gap. Memphis is shooting better from the field, better from three, and turning it over less. The Blazers’ -2.9 plus/minus suggests they’re getting outscored over the course of games, while Memphis’s -1.7 indicates they’re staying competitive even in losses.
The total of 233.0 feels inflated given both teams average 115.3 points per game. That’s 230.6 combined, which means the market is pricing in a shootout. But Memphis’s turnover discipline and Portland’s inconsistent defense suggest a game that stays closer to the number rather than flying over it. The spread is the better play here.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Memphis +7 in a game where the efficiency gap doesn’t support this number. The Grizzlies shoot better, pass better, and protect the ball better than Portland. They’re coming off a road win where Ty Jerome and Cam Spencer showed they can close games. Portland just got torched at home by Phoenix and has no answer for a Memphis backcourt that can both score and facilitate.
The main risk is Portland’s offensive rebounding and home court, but Memphis’s ball movement and shooting efficiency should keep this game within a possession or two. Seven points is too many for a matchup where the statistical edges favor the road dog. Memphis covers, and they might win this one outright.
BASH’S BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies +7.0 for 2 units.
