Can Ja Morant and the Grizzlies exact revenge for last week’s loss, or will Washington’s offense stay hot? Bryan Bash breaks down the situational factors and provides his top ATS pick for Sunday’s clash.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Wizards
The Grizzlies are laying 7 points on the road against Washington on Sunday evening, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Memphis sits at 15-16 with Ja Morant back in the lineup after a four-game absence, while the Wizards are limping through a 6-23 season that’s put them dead last in the Eastern Conference. But here’s the thing — when you’re asking a .500 road team to cover a full touchdown at Capital One Arena against a desperate home squad coming off their best offensive output of the season, that margin starts to feel stretched.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not buying it at this number. Memphis just handled Milwaukee 125-104 with Morant back orchestrating the offense and Jaren Jackson Jr. dominating on both ends. Washington just hung 138 on Toronto with Keyshawn George going 9-of-13 for 23 points and the entire roster clicking offensively. The market sees talent disparity and gives Memphis the respect. I see a situational spot where the Grizzlies’ 8-8 road record tells a more honest story than their reputation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 28, 2025, 6:00 ET
Venue: Capital One Arena
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -7.0 (-110) | Washington Wizards +7.0 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 240.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -275 | Wizards +225
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Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Memphis -7 because the talent gap between these rosters is real. Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 18.0 points with 5.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game — he’s a legitimate two-way force. Ja Morant adds 17.7 points and 7.7 assists, and when he’s running the show, this Memphis offense has a different gear. Santi Aldama chipping in 14.3 points and 6.6 boards gives them a third scoring option that keeps defenses honest.
Washington counters with CJ McCollum at 18.7 points per game, Alexandre Sarr posting 18.2 and 8.3 rebounds, and KyShawn George contributing 15.0 points with 5.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists. That’s not a terrible trio, and it’s exactly the group that just torched Toronto for 138 points. The Wizards are 3-10 at home, which tells you everything about why they’re getting points in their own building. But that 3-10 record also means they’ve covered some numbers this season simply by keeping games competitive.
The total sitting at 240.5 reflects what both teams showed in their last outings — offensive firepower that can push tempo and pile up points. Memphis scored 125 against a legitimate Bucks defense. Washington put up 138 against Toronto. The market expects points, and I don’t disagree with that assessment.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are 8-8 on the road this season, which is the number I keep coming back to. This isn’t a dominant road team that shows up and imposes its will in hostile environments. They’re a .500 squad away from home, and while getting Morant back is huge for their offensive flow, he’s still working back into game shape after missing four contests.
Jackson Jr. is the anchor — 18.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and those 2.0 blocks per game make him a problem on both ends. But Memphis is dealing with rotation concerns. Vince Williams Jr. is out with a knee issue, which removes a key perimeter defender and secondary ball-handler. Brandon Clarke is sidelined with a Grade 2 calf strain and won’t return for weeks. Jock Landale is questionable with a calf problem, potentially thinning their frontcourt depth even further.
That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. When your rotation is compromised and you’re asking your stars to carry a heavier load on the second night of a road trip, covering seven points becomes a taller order. Memphis has the talent edge, but talent doesn’t always translate to comfortable covers when the depth chart is patched together.
Washington Wizards Breakdown: The Other Side
Washington is 6-23, and there’s no sugarcoating that record. They’re 3-10 at home, which means Capital One Arena hasn’t been kind to them this season. But once you dig into the matchup data, you see a team that just dropped 138 points on Toronto with balanced contributions across the roster. George went for 23, McCollum and Bilal Coulibaly each added 21, and the offense hummed in a way we haven’t seen from this group all year.
McCollum averaging 18.7 points gives them a veteran scorer who can get buckets in isolation. Sarr at 18.2 points and 8.3 rebounds provides interior presence and rebounding that can keep possessions alive. George at 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists is a versatile playmaker who can impact the game in multiple ways.
The injury situation is worth monitoring. George is questionable with a hip issue, which would be a significant loss given his recent performance. Malaki Branham is day-to-day with a thumb problem, and Corey Kispert is out with a hamstring injury. If George can’t go, this line might need to move — but if he plays, Washington has enough offensive weapons to keep this game within striking distance.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
Here’s where the possession math matters. Memphis wants to push pace with Morant back in the lineup — he’s at his best in transition, creating easy looks before defenses can set. Washington just showed they can score in bunches when their offense clicks, and they’re playing at home where they’re desperate for any positive momentum.
The efficiency gap exists, no question. Memphis has better defensive structure when healthy, and Jackson’s rim protection is a legitimate weapon. But with Williams out and Landale questionable, their perimeter defense takes a hit. Washington’s backcourt can exploit that, especially if George is available to facilitate and attack off the bounce.
The main risk here is Memphis pulling away in the third quarter and turning this into a blowout. They have the talent to do it, and if Morant catches fire, the Grizzlies can score in waves. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Washington’s 138-point explosion against Toronto wasn’t a fluke; it was a team finding offensive rhythm at the right time. That confidence carries over, especially at home where they need wins to salvage any dignity from this season.
When you do that math over 96-100 possessions, Memphis winning by 5 or 6 feels more realistic than a comfortable 8-10 point victory. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, particularly with Memphis’s road record sitting at exactly .500 and their rotation depth compromised.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Washington Wizards +7 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m taking the Wizards plus the points at home. Memphis is the better team, and I expect them to win this game outright. But asking them to cover seven on the road with rotation issues and Morant still finding his rhythm is too much. Washington just put up their best offensive performance of the season, and that kind of confidence doesn’t evaporate overnight.
The Grizzlies’ 8-8 road record tells me they’re not a dominant road team that shows up and blows out inferior competition. They’re a .500 squad away from home, and seven points is a significant number to cover when the opponent has legitimate scoring options and home-court desperation working in their favor.
The main risk is Memphis’s defensive intensity overwhelming Washington’s offense and Jackson controlling the paint on both ends. If the Grizzlies get out in transition and build a double-digit lead early, this number could be in trouble. But I trust Washington’s recent offensive execution and their ability to keep this game competitive into the fourth quarter.
Give me the Wizards plus the points. This line feels like it’s giving Memphis too much credit for what they’ve actually shown on the road this season, and I’m betting on Washington to keep it close enough to cash the ticket.
