With a massive 238-point total, the market is betting on a track meet at the FedExForum. Our prediction analyzes how Ja Morant’s return and Atlanta’s #1 ranked assist rate will break down two bottom-ten defenses.
The Setup: Hawks at Grizzlies
Memphis is laying 2.5 at home against Atlanta on Wednesday night, and this number tells you everything about where both teams stand right now. The Grizzlies are 18-23 and sitting 11th in the West. The Hawks are 20-25 and 10th in the East. Neither team is defending well, neither team has separation in their conference, and the oddsmakers are pricing this like a coin flip with a tiny home bump. That 238-point total is the real story here—the market expects this game to fly, and when you look at the personnel and pace metrics, it’s hard to argue otherwise. Ja Morant just returned with 24 points and 13 assists in Memphis’ win over Orlando in London. Jalen Johnson is stuffing the stat sheet for Atlanta with 23.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. This is a game where the spread might not matter as much as the total, and the matchup dynamics support a high-possession, high-scoring environment.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Atlanta Hawks (20-25) at Memphis Grizzlies (18-23)
Date & Time: January 21, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Hawks +2.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Hawks +114 | Grizzlies -139
- Total: Over 238.0 (-110) | Under 238.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The 2.5-point spread is essentially telling you that Memphis has a marginal home-court advantage and nothing more. The Grizzlies are 9-11 at FedExForum this season, which isn’t exactly fortress-level stuff. Atlanta is actually better on the road (13-12) than at home (7-13), which compresses this number even further. The market isn’t giving Memphis credit for dominant home play because it doesn’t exist. The Grizzlies just got Ja Morant back, and he looked sharp in London with 24 points and 13 assists, but one good game doesn’t erase the fact that Memphis has struggled to defend consistently all season. That 238-point total is where the real market opinion lives. Both teams have offensive weapons—Johnson for Atlanta, Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. for Memphis—but neither squad has shown the ability to slow down opposing offenses consistently. The total is elevated because the market expects transition opportunities, limited half-court resistance, and plenty of possessions. When you see a total this high, you’re looking at two teams that either can’t or won’t grind the pace down.
Hawks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Jalen Johnson has emerged as Atlanta’s most complete player this season, averaging 23.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. Those are all-around numbers that create offensive flexibility and allow the Hawks to play through multiple actions. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is contributing 20.7 points per game, and CJ McCollum adds 18.6 points with 3.6 assists. The Hawks have scoring depth, but they’re missing key pieces. Kristaps Porzingis remains out with left Achilles tendinitis, and Zaccharie Risacher is sidelined with a left knee bone contusion. Both players have missed the last five games, which limits Atlanta’s frontcourt depth and rim protection. The Hawks just lost to Milwaukee 112-110 at home after blowing a late lead, which tells you about their execution issues in crunch time. Atlanta’s 13-12 road record is actually better than their home mark, which suggests they play with more urgency away from State Farm Arena. The problem is defensive consistency—when you’re allowing teams to score in transition and you don’t have rim protection, you’re relying on your offense to outscore problems rather than solve them.
Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis just got Ja Morant back, and his return was everything the Grizzlies needed—24 points, 13 assists, and a 126-109 win over Orlando in London. Morant’s season averages are 19.3 points and 7.8 assists, and his ability to push pace and create for others is what makes Memphis’ offense functional. Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 18.8 points and 5.5 rebounds, and Jock Landale contributed 21 points and 8 rebounds in the London game. The Grizzlies are dealing with significant frontcourt injuries—Zach Edey is out for at least another six weeks with an ankle injury, and Brandon Clarke remains sidelined with a calf issue. That puts more responsibility on Landale and limits Memphis’ rim protection and rebounding depth. The Grizzlies are 9-11 at home, which is below .500 and doesn’t give them a meaningful home edge. Memphis thrives when Morant is on the floor because he dictates pace and creates open looks, but their defensive inconsistency means they’re vulnerable to teams that can score in transition and exploit mismatches.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and transition opportunities. Both teams are missing frontcourt depth, which means rim protection and defensive rebounding will be compromised. When you have Morant pushing the ball for Memphis and Johnson facilitating for Atlanta, you’re looking at a game with plenty of possessions and limited half-court grinding. The 238-point total reflects that reality. Over a 100-possession game, you’re looking at both teams needing to average around 1.19 points per possession to hit the over. That’s achievable when neither team has the personnel to consistently slow down the other. Memphis will try to use Morant’s speed and vision to create open threes and rim attempts. Atlanta will counter with Johnson’s versatility and McCollum’s shot-making. The key is whether either team can force the other into half-court sets and make them execute in the paint without Porzingis or Edey available. The answer is probably no. Both teams will push, both teams will score, and the total becomes the sharper play than trying to split hairs on a 2.5-point spread between two sub-.500 teams.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Over 238.0 for 2 units. The spread is a toss-up between two teams that can’t defend consistently and don’t have the frontcourt depth to control the paint. Memphis is 9-11 at home, Atlanta is better on the road than at home, and the 2.5-point line reflects the market’s uncertainty about which team actually has an edge. The total, however, is backed by the personnel and pace dynamics. Morant pushes tempo, Johnson creates transition opportunities, and neither team has the rim protection to slow down penetration. The market set this number at 238 because it expects a high-possession game with limited defensive resistance, and the matchup supports that thesis. The risk is if one team decides to grind this out in the half-court and the pace drops below expectation, but with Morant back and both teams dealing with frontcourt injuries, that seems unlikely. This game should fly, and the over is the play that makes sense when you run the possessions math.
BASH’S BEST BET: Over 238.0 for 2 units.
