The Charlotte Hornets enter the United Center as 8.5-point road favorites on Tuesday night, a number that feels suspiciously high for a 27-31 team, regardless of Chicago’s recent nine-game slide. While the Hornets just dismantled Washington behind LaMelo Ball’s 37 points, taking the Bulls as our ATS pick aligns with a +7.8 value edge generated by the model, suggesting the spread has reached a “peak value” overreaction point.
The Setup: Hornets at Bulls
The Charlotte Hornets travel to the United Center on Tuesday night as 9-point road favorites against a Chicago Bulls squad that’s dropped nine straight games. The market’s laying a big number on a Charlotte team that’s 10th in the East and just swept Washington behind LaMelo Ball’s 37-point explosion, but the projection tells a different story than this bloated spread suggests.
the projection has this as a 1.2-point Charlotte win, which means the Bulls are getting 7.8 points of value at +9.0. That’s a massive gap between market perception and efficiency reality. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—Charlotte’s the better team, but not by nine points when you run the possessions math against a Bulls squad that’s actually competitive in clutch situations despite the losing streak.
The total sits at 229.5, and with a projected pace blend of 100.3 possessions—well above league average—this number points to Over. The model projects 231.8 total points, giving us a 2.3-point edge on the over. This is exactly the spot where tempo and offensive efficiency create scoring opportunities that the market hasn’t fully priced in.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 24, 2026, 8:00 ET
Location: United Center
TV: Home: CHSN | Away: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
Current Spread: Charlotte Hornets -9.0 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +9.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Charlotte -357 | Chicago +270
Total: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)
Book: MyBookie.ag
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving you nine points because Chicago’s lost nine straight and Charlotte just torched Washington for 129 points on 25-of-46 shooting from deep. But the efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here—in the wrong direction for this spread.
Charlotte posts a +2.0 net rating on the season compared to Chicago’s -4.4, creating a 6.4-point gap per 100 possessions in the Hornets’ favor. That’s a meaningful efficiency advantage, but it doesn’t translate to nine points in a single game when you account for pace and variance. The Bulls run at 102.4 possessions per game compared to Charlotte’s 98.2, and the pace blend of 100.3 possessions means more opportunities for both teams to score—and more variance in outcomes.
Here’s what the market’s missing: Chicago’s clutch stats tell you they’re not getting blown out in close games. The Bulls are 17-16 in clutch situations with a 51.5% win rate, while Charlotte sits at just 36.0% in clutch spots. That’s a 15.5% gap favoring the home team when games get tight. This line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math against actual game context.
The Bulls’ offensive rating of 112.8 against Charlotte’s defensive rating of 115.1 creates a small mismatch of just 2.3 points per 100 possessions—basically within noise. Charlotte’s offense at 117.1 versus Chicago’s defense at 117.2 is essentially a wash at 0.1 points per 100. Neither team has a dominant offensive-defensive edge in this matchup, which makes nine points look like an overreaction to recent results rather than sustainable efficiency.
Charlotte Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Hornets come in at 27-31 overall and 15-15 on the road, riding the high of a four-game season sweep of Washington. LaMelo Ball went nuclear for 37 points on 10 three-pointers, Kon Knueppel added 28, and Brandon Miller chipped in 22. They shot 54.3% from three in that game, making 12 of 14 triples in the third quarter alone.
But here’s the reality: Charlotte’s season-long three-point percentage sits at 37.5%, and their effective field goal percentage of 54.7% is basically in line with the market expectations. Ball averages 19.4 points and 7.3 assists on the season, while Miller leads the team at 20.5 points per game. Knueppel’s been efficient at 48.7% from the field and 43.5% from three, giving them a legitimate three-headed scoring attack.
The Hornets’ 117.1 offensive rating ranks among the better units in the league, and their 58.6% true shooting percentage confirms they’re creating quality looks. But their 115.1 defensive rating means they’re not stopping anybody consistently. Coby White is probable for his Charlotte debut after missing time with a left calf strain, which could add another scoring option off the bench if he’s cleared.
Charlotte’s clutch struggles are the concern—just 9-16 in clutch games with 39.3% shooting and 24.0% from three in crunch time. That’s a significant drop-off from their overall efficiency, and it matters in a game projected to be competitive.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
The Bulls sit at 24-34 overall and 15-15 at home, which tells you they’re not getting destroyed at the United Center despite the nine-game skid. Josh Giddey leads the offense at 18.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 8.5 assists, giving them a legitimate playmaker who can distribute and create. Matas Buzelis provides 15.0 points and 1.5 blocks, while Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons both average over 14 points per game.
The problem for Chicago is Simons is out with a wrist injury suffered Sunday against the Knicks, which removes a key backcourt scorer who shoots 38.5% from three. Jalen Smith is questionable with right calf tightness after leaving Sunday’s game early. Those absences matter, but the Bulls’ depth chart still features Sexton, Tre Jones, and Rob Dillingham to absorb minutes.
Chicago’s 112.8 offensive rating is below league average, but their 58.3% true shooting and 55.0% effective field goal percentage show they’re not creating bad shots—they’re just not getting enough stops. The 117.2 defensive rating is the real issue, allowing opponents to score efficiently over 102.4 possessions per game.
But here’s the edge: Chicago’s 68.6% assist rate leads Charlotte’s 64.8%, and their 12.9% turnover rate is cleaner than Charlotte’s 13.8%. The Bulls move the ball and take care of it better than the Hornets, which creates more efficient possessions when they execute.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in transition and on the glass. Charlotte holds a massive 7.2 percentage-point edge in offensive rebounding at 30.3% compared to Chicago’s 23.2%. Over 100.3 possessions, that offensive rebounding gap translates to approximately 7 extra second-chance opportunities for the Hornets. Those are high-value possessions that can swing a game by 8-10 points if Charlotte converts efficiently.
The pace blend of 100.3 possessions favors the over and creates variance in the final margin. Both teams will get up-and-down opportunities, and with Charlotte’s 117.1 offensive rating projected to generate 117.5 points and Chicago’s pace pushing them toward 114.3 points, you’re looking at 231.8 total points in a competitive game.
The possessions math tells a different story than this nine-point spread. Charlotte’s net rating advantage of 6.4 points per 100 possessions projects to roughly 6.4 points over the course of 100.3 possessions—not nine. Factor in home court advantage for Chicago (worth about 2 points), and you’re looking at a projected margin of 1.2 points for Charlotte. That’s an 7.8-point gap between the market number and the efficiency projection.
Chicago’s clutch performance—17-16 record and 51.5% win rate in close games—suggests they’ll keep this competitive late. Charlotte’s clutch struggles at 36.0% mean they’re vulnerable when games tighten up. I’ve seen this movie before—a team on a losing streak gets disrespected by the market, but the underlying numbers say they’re competitive at home.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The market’s disrespecting Chicago here, and I’m taking the points all day long. The 7.8-point edge on Bulls +9.0 is too wide to ignore when the efficiency math projects a one-possession game. Charlotte’s the better team, but nine points is asking them to cover against a Bulls squad that’s 15-15 at home and 17-16 in clutch situations.
The main risk is Charlotte’s offensive rebounding dominance creating enough second-chance points to push the margin beyond the number, or LaMelo Ball and company getting hot from three like they did against Washington. But over a full 100.3 possessions, the efficiency gap doesn’t support a blowout.
On the total, the 2.3-point edge on the over at 229.5 is solid value with the pace blend at 100.3 possessions and both teams posting above-average offensive ratings. The projected total of 231.8 gives you breathing room even if one team has an off shooting night.
BASH’S BEST BET: Chicago Bulls +9.0 for 2 units.
Secondary play: Over 229.5 for 1 unit. This line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math, and the possessions math changes everything in this matchup.
