Charlotte rolls into Houston as winners of seven straight, but they face a Rockets team that is 17-5 at home. Handicapper Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and why Houston’s +5.4 plus/minus makes them the primary prediction for Thursday night.
The Setup: Hornets at Rockets
Charlotte rolls into Toyota Center on Thursday riding seven straight wins, but the Rockets are laying just 3.5 points at home despite owning a 17-5 record in their building. That’s the market telling you something important: Houston’s been dominant at home, but this Hornets squad has legitimate offensive firepower that keeps games close. Charlotte’s averaging 116.0 points per game with a balanced attack featuring five players north of 18 per night, while Houston counters with Kevin Durant’s 25.9 PPG and a defensive identity that produces 14.6 combined steals and blocks per game. The total sits at 217.5, which feels light given Charlotte’s pace and the Hornets’ ability to push tempo even on the road. But here’s the tension: Houston’s +5.4 plus/minus dwarfs Charlotte’s +1.8, and that efficiency gap matters when you’re trying to cover a short number in a building where the Rockets protect home court.
The line respects Charlotte’s recent surge—LaMelo Ball just dropped 24 in a comeback win over New Orleans, fighting back from 22 down—but it also acknowledges Houston’s structural advantages. The Rockets grab 3.1 more rebounds per game, including a massive 16.2 offensive boards compared to Charlotte’s 12.3. That’s extra possessions, and extra possessions against a Hornets defense that’s been winning games by outscoring opponents, not by locking them down. This spread is begging you to pick a side, and the answer lives in how Charlotte’s offensive efficiency holds up against Houston’s length and activity on the defensive end.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Charlotte Hornets (23-28) at Houston Rockets (31-18)
Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Toyota Center
TV: Space City Home Network (Home), NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SE (Away)
Spread: Rockets -3.5 (-110) | Hornets +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -159 | Hornets +128
Total: Over 217.5 (-110) | Under 217.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Rockets -3.5 because Houston’s home dominance collides with Charlotte’s offensive versatility, and neither side gets a clean edge. Houston’s 17-5 at home and 31-18 overall, but Charlotte’s 12-15 on the road and just won seven straight by averaging over 116 per night. That’s not a fluke—the Hornets have five guys who can create their own shot, and they’re shooting 37.0% from three as a team. Houston counters with Durant shooting 50.8% from the field and 39.9% from deep, plus Alperen Sengun’s 21.2 PPG and 9.4 RPG giving them interior control. The Rockets also commit half a turnover fewer per game, which matters in tight possessions late.
But here’s why this isn’t a six-point spread: Charlotte’s ball movement is real. They’re dishing 26.6 assists per game compared to Houston’s 24.8, and that extra passing creates cleaner looks. Brandon Miller’s averaging 20.6 PPG, LaMelo Ball adds 19.1 with 7.5 assists, and Kon Knueppel is shooting 42.5% from three on nearly 19 per night. That’s three legitimate scoring threats who can exploit Houston’s rotations if the Rockets get caught in switches. The total at 217.5 reflects both teams’ ability to score, but it also assumes Houston’s defensive activity—8.8 steals and 5.8 blocks per game—disrupts Charlotte’s rhythm enough to keep this from turning into a shootout. The spread respects Charlotte’s offensive talent while acknowledging Houston’s home court and rebounding edge.
Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Charlotte’s seven-game win streak isn’t built on defense—it’s built on overwhelming opponents with balanced scoring and tempo. Five players averaging over 18 points per game means you can’t load up on any single threat, and LaMelo Ball’s 7.5 assists per game keeps the ball moving. Ball just scored 24 in a comeback win over New Orleans, shaking off an early collision to lead the Hornets back from 22 down. That’s the kind of resilience that carries into road spots, and Charlotte’s 12-15 away from home isn’t terrible for a team sitting 11th in the East.
The shooting percentages tell you how Charlotte stays in games: 46.3% from the field and 37.0% from three. Knueppel’s 42.5% from deep makes him a legitimate floor spacer, and Miles Bridges adds 18.3 PPG with 6.1 boards to give them size on the wing. Coby White chips in 18.6 PPG, and Brandon Miller’s 20.6 per night gives them a go-to scorer when Ball gets pressured. The problem is on the glass: Charlotte’s grabbing just 12.3 offensive rebounds per game, and they’re giving up 15.7 turnovers. Against a Rockets team that forces 14.6 combined steals and blocks, those turnovers become transition buckets the other way. Charlotte’s +1.8 plus/minus suggests they’re barely outscoring opponents over full games, and that margin shrinks in hostile environments like Toyota Center.
Rockets Breakdown: The Other Side
Houston’s built around Durant’s efficiency and Sengun’s interior presence, but the real edge is defensive activity. The Rockets are forcing 8.8 steals per game, and their 5.8 blocks mean they’re protecting the rim and disrupting passing lanes. Amen Thompson adds 18.0 PPG with 7.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists, giving Houston a secondary playmaker who can push pace when Durant gets doubled. Jabari Smith Jr.’s 15.1 PPG and 6.8 boards provide floor spacing, and Reed Sheppard’s 12.6 PPG on 38.4% from three keeps defenses honest.
The rebounding edge is massive: Houston’s pulling down 49.1 boards per game, including 16.2 on the offensive glass. That’s nearly four more offensive rebounds than Charlotte, which translates to extra possessions and second-chance points. Houston’s shooting 47.2% from the field, and Durant’s 50.8% means they’re getting efficient looks in the halfcourt. The Rockets’ +5.4 plus/minus is more than three times Charlotte’s, and that gap reflects their ability to win games by controlling pace and limiting opponent possessions. Dorian Finney-Smith is listed as out but expected back for this game, which would give Houston another body to throw at Charlotte’s wings. Steven Adams is done for the season, but Clint Capela and Finney-Smith splitting backup center duties behind Sengun keeps the frontcourt rotation intact.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Charlotte’s ball movement can overcome Houston’s defensive pressure and rebounding advantage. The Hornets are assisting on 26.6 of their 116 points per game, which means they’re creating open looks through passing rather than isolation. But Houston’s 8.8 steals per game suggest they’re jumping passing lanes and forcing live-ball turnovers that turn into transition buckets. Charlotte’s already coughing it up 15.7 times per game, and if Houston converts those into easy points, the Hornets’ offensive efficiency takes a hit.
The rebounding battle is where Houston builds separation. The Rockets are grabbing 16.2 offensive boards per game compared to Charlotte’s 12.3, and that’s nearly four extra possessions every night. Over a full game, that’s the difference between covering 3.5 and falling short. Charlotte’s 37.0% from three keeps them in striking distance, but Houston’s 47.2% from the field means they’re getting higher-percentage looks in the halfcourt. Durant shooting 50.8% overall and 39.9% from deep is the kind of efficiency that wears down opponents, and Sengun’s 21.2 PPG with 9.4 boards gives Houston an interior anchor Charlotte can’t match.
The total at 217.5 assumes both teams push 110, but Charlotte’s +1.8 plus/minus suggests they’re winning games by one or two possessions, not blowing teams out. Houston’s +5.4 plus/minus means they’re winning by bigger margins, and that efficiency gap matters when you’re trying to cover a short spread. If Houston controls the glass and limits Charlotte’s second-chance points, the Rockets win this by six or seven. If Charlotte’s ball movement creates open threes and they hit at their season average, this stays within a possession. The market’s telling you it’s the latter, but the data says Houston’s structural advantages tilt this toward the former.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 3.5 with Houston at home. Charlotte’s seven-game win streak is impressive, but it’s built on outscoring opponents, not stopping them. The Hornets are giving up 15.7 turnovers per game, and Houston’s 8.8 steals turn those into transition opportunities. The rebounding gap—16.2 offensive boards for Houston versus 12.3 for Charlotte—means the Rockets get extra possessions every night, and those possessions add up over 48 minutes. Durant’s efficiency and Sengun’s interior presence give Houston two ways to score in the halfcourt, and Charlotte doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow both down.
The risk is Charlotte’s three-point shooting. If the Hornets hit at 37.0% and Ball orchestrates the offense like he did against New Orleans, this stays close. But Houston’s 17-5 at home for a reason, and that reason is defensive activity and rebounding. The Rockets’ +5.4 plus/minus suggests they win games by more than one possession, and 3.5 points feels like a gift given the matchup advantages. Charlotte’s 12-15 on the road and just +1.8 in plus/minus, which tells you they’re barely outscoring opponents over full games. Houston’s home court and structural edges push this to a five or six-point win.
BASH’S BEST BET: Rockets -3.5 for 2 units.
