RBD leans on his T1 betting model again as Houston vs Miami lands in a profitable totals spot backed by strong recent trends.
Thursday, for the second time this week, I abandoned my normal conservative style of isolating a single game that I designated as my strongest play and betting just one game per day. I gave out two picks on Wednesday and two picks on Friday.
And nailed all four.
My model T1 continues to kill it on Overs.
After last night’s wins with the Over in Brook/Bos and NY/Mil it’s now at 35-16.
That’s 68% with more than 50 games in the data sample.
Both games also qualified as Overs in my other model for choosing totals, T2.
T2 is now 51-38, 57%.
Best of all, when a game qualifies as a play for both models, the record is now 8-1.
With numbers like that I started my handicapping this morning with high hopes for another game that qualifies. But with only five games on the card the chances were slim.
I crunched all the numbers, and . . . do I have another one tonight?
I wouldn’t be writing this/you wouldn’t be reading this if I didn’t!
Let’s get to it.
T1 and T2 Breakdown
T1 says Hou/Mia goes Over tonight.
It qualifies for T1 (35 – 16) but not for T2 so I don’t get a match.
But it does qualify for the subcategory I’ve been using with its record of 21-7 (corrected record after the loss with the Min/LAC game on Thursday and two wins last night.)
My memory says Houston was recently in this spot so let’s hit the log book and look up both teams to see if they’ve qualified for a T1 play this season, and what their records are.
Houston is 3-1 in T1 Overs, including 2-0 in Rd games like tonight.
Ya gotta like that.
Miami appeared in this spot once, a Hm game that stayed Under, 0-1.
1-0 would be better but one loss is not enough to put me off all the other stats I have in my favor.
Houston has gone Over three straight and three of their last five.
Miami has gone over three straight and four of their last five.
There are no H2H (Head to Head) stats to factor in – this is the first time these two have met this season.
The game opened at 226 and is already down to 225 so as always when the line is moving in my favor there’s no sense buying it right now.
But be careful – it’s a day game so don’t wait too long, mistakenly thinking it’s a typical 7:00 p.m. EST start.
Recap
Recap: 2-0
Record: 19-11
Review:
I had Brook/Bos Ov 209.
They combined for 259.
I had NY/Mil Ov 218.
They combined for 225.
I didn’t have enough time to write up a homepage article on the two spots so remember – check out the PredictEm Forum everyday for updates!
