RBD breaks down Pacers vs Clippers betting trends using his T1 model and team-specific handicapping data to identify a strong NBA total play.
League Specific Stats: stats that encompass how all teams perform in a certain situation.
Team Specific Stats: stats that show how a particular team performs in a certain situation.
One of the best parts about being this deep into the season is I can incorporate months of team specific stats, which tell me how a particular team performs in a certain situation.
For example, tonight’s game.
T1 says Indiana and LA go Over total.
It’s taken a few hits lately but overall, league-wide, T1 is still hitting at 35-20, good for 63%.
The game also qualifies for a subcategory that’s hitting at 22-11, 67% on Overs.
And when I look at the team specific stats, how the individual teams are performing in this situation, I see that Indiana has been in the T1 over spot three times this season.
They have a winning record of 2-1.
Even better, the Clippers have been in this spot five times and have a record of 4-1.
Team specifics stats also point me toward games to NOT pull the trigger on.
For example, the Atl/Mil game tonight also fits the same two stats, T1 Over and the subcategory.
BUT . . . team specific wise, Atlanta is 2-2 in this spot, and Milwaukee is 3-4.
Neither team has a winning record so I’ll eliminate that one and use the Pacer/Clipper game instead.
The Pacers are 27-34 Ov/Un.
The Clippers are 32-28.
On the Rd the Pacers are 11-18 Ov/Un.
At Hm the Clippers are 19-12.
The stat on the Pacers on the Rd is pretty ugly but most of those Unders came earlier in the season.
In their last 10 road games they’re 5-5 Ov/Un.
And in their last 10 games overall, Hm or Rd, they’re 6-4 to the Over.
The Clippers are 5-5 Overall/Un in their last 10.
There’s no head-to-head info to factor in, this is their first meeting this season.
The game opened at 224 and is already up to 227 so I’m buying it right now.
My play:
Ind/LAC Over 227
Recap
Recap: 1-2
Record: 20-14
Review: Disaster diverted on the last plays I made, Sunday, March 1st.
I had one of the good kind of 1-2 days.
How is a 1-2 day a good day?
I lost the morning game.
I lost the afternoon game.
I was staring at a possible 0-3 before the Clippers saved me in the night game, taking me from a loss of three units to just a single unit surrendered.
THAT’S when a 1-2 day is a good day.
I noted in a forum post that Milwaukee put up a pitiful eight points in the 4th quarter to cost me a loss in one of those three games.
I stopped watching in disgust when I realized that they were going to screw me on my Over.
I didn’t find out until yesterday that the Bulls went on a 27-0 run.
A “professional” men’s basketball team got outscored 27-0??!!
(No, I didn’t go to the box score play-by-play section to see if the 27-0 run that I heard about on the radio was accurate. It was painful enough to watch, I don’t need to relive it!)
