The Jazz enter tonight as a firm home favorite, and you should read on to get our capper’s ATS pick to see if Utah’s functional bench can overwhelm a Kings squad that has officially ruled out six rotation players.
The Jazz are laying 7 at home against a Kings team riding a 12-game losing streak, and the market isn’t being subtle about where this one’s headed. Sacramento comes to Salt Lake City at 12-43, sporting a 3-24 road mark that’s among the worst in basketball. Utah sits at 17-37 but plays to a respectable 10-17 clip at the Delta Center. The spread reflects what the numbers scream: one team is functional at home, the other is barely functional anywhere.
But here’s where it gets interesting. The Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray, gutting their frontcourt depth and rebounding presence. The Jazz counter with their own injury issues—Keyonte George is out with a right ankle sprain, and Walker Kessler is done for the season. Yet Utah still averages 7.7 more points per game, controls the glass by 2.9 rebounds, and distributes 5 more assists per contest. The efficiency gap is real, and Sacramento’s road struggles amplify every weakness.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Wednesday, February 11, 2026, 9:00 ET
Where: Delta Center
Watch: Home: KJZZ-TV, Jazz+ | Away: NBC Sports CA, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Jazz -7.0 (-110) | Kings +7.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jazz -270 | Kings +211
- Total: Over 231.0 (-110) | Under 231.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market set this number at 7 because Utah’s home baseline is legitimate—they’re 10-17 at the Delta Center, not dominant but stable enough to handle bottom-tier competition. Sacramento’s 3-24 road record tells you everything about their ability to execute away from Golden 1 Center. The Kings average a minus-10.2 plus/minus on the season compared to Utah’s minus-8.2, and that two-point differential widens considerably when you factor in venue.
The scoring edge is stark. Utah puts up 118.2 per game to Sacramento’s 110.5, a 7.7-point gap that aligns perfectly with the spread. The Jazz shoot 46.7% from the field and 34.9% from three, both slightly better than the Kings’ 46.5% and 34.5% marks. The assist differential—30 per game for Utah versus 25 for Sacramento—signals better ball movement and more efficient shot creation. When you lose Sabonis, you lose your primary playmaking hub in the paint. When you lose Murray, you lose perimeter length and a secondary scoring option. The Kings are operating with a compromised rotation against a Jazz team that, despite its own issues, still fields Lauri Markkanen at 26.9 points per game and Jaren Jackson Jr. at 19.3.
The total sits at 231, which makes sense when you add Utah’s 118.2 average to Sacramento’s 110.5 and land at 228.7. The market is accounting for a slightly faster game script than the season averages suggest, but both teams commit enough turnovers—15.8 for Utah, 14.6 for Sacramento—to create transition opportunities that inflate possessions.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Kings are hemorrhaging games, and the roster holes explain why. Sabonis is out with a back injury, marking his fourth straight absence. He’s your 15.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per night—the fulcrum of Sacramento’s offense. Without him, the Kings lose their best rebounder and their most reliable interior presence. Murray is also out with a left ankle sprain, removing 14.6 points and 6.1 rebounds from the rotation. De’Andre Hunter, acquired to add depth, is sidelined with iritis after taking an eye injury.
What’s left? Zach LaVine leads the team at 19.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting and 39% from three. DeMar DeRozan adds 18.7 points and 3.8 assists, shooting a solid 49.7% from the field. Russell Westbrook contributes 15.3 points and 6.6 assists but turns it over 3.4 times per game, and his 43% field goal percentage on the road is a problem. The Kings average 10.9 offensive rebounds per game, but without Sabonis patrolling the paint, that number craters. Sacramento’s defensive activity—8.2 steals and 4.5 blocks per game—is decent, but it doesn’t compensate for the structural issues created by missing two starters.
The road splits are brutal. At 3-24 away from home, the Kings are one of the league’s worst traveling teams. They’re minus-10.2 in plus/minus, and that figure worsens significantly on the road where execution and energy consistently falter.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: The Other Side
The Jazz aren’t world-beaters, but they’re functional at home with a 10-17 record that’s respectable for a team sitting 13th in the West. Lauri Markkanen is the engine, averaging 26.9 points and 7 rebounds on 47.8% shooting and 36.5% from three. He’s a legitimate scoring threat who can stretch the floor and punish mismatches. Jaren Jackson Jr. chips in 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks, giving Utah a second scoring option who can protect the rim.
Keyonte George is out with a right ankle sprain, which removes 23.8 points and 6.5 assists from the lineup. That’s a significant loss, but Brice Sensabaugh just hit a go-ahead three in Utah’s win over Miami and is averaging 12.1 points per game. Kyle Filipowski added 16 points and 11 rebounds in that victory, and Ace Bailey contributed another 16. The Jazz have depth pieces who can step up when needed.
Walker Kessler’s season-ending injury is a long-term problem, but his 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game have already been absorbed into the rotation. Utah averages 44.2 rebounds per game compared to Sacramento’s 41.3, a 2.9-board advantage that becomes critical when the Kings are missing their best rebounder. The Jazz distribute 30 assists per game, five more than Sacramento, which means better shot quality and more open looks.
Utah’s plus/minus of minus-8.2 is better than Sacramento’s minus-10.2, and at home, that gap widens. The Jazz shoot 46.7% from the field and 79.9% from the free-throw line, both solid marks that indicate consistent execution.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game hinges on the rebounding battle and Utah’s ability to exploit Sacramento’s depleted frontcourt. The Jazz average 11.8 offensive rebounds per game to the Kings’ 10.9, and without Sabonis, Sacramento has no one who can consistently box out Markkanen or Filipowski. Every second-chance opportunity for Utah extends possessions and inflates their scoring output. When you’re already averaging 7.7 more points per game, those extra possessions push the margin past a single possession.
The assist differential matters here. Utah’s 30 assists per game versus Sacramento’s 25 signals better ball movement and more efficient offense. The Kings rely heavily on isolation scoring from LaVine and DeRozan, but without Sabonis to facilitate from the elbow, the offense becomes predictable. Utah can load up on the perimeter and force contested jumpers, knowing Sacramento lacks the interior presence to punish help defense.
Turnovers could swing this. The Jazz commit 15.8 per game to Sacramento’s 14.6, but the Kings’ 3.4 turnovers from Westbrook alone create transition opportunities for Utah. When you’re playing on the road and already struggling to score, you can’t afford to gift possessions. The Kings average 8.2 steals and 4.5 blocks per game, but that defensive activity hasn’t translated to wins—12 straight losses prove the point.
The total of 231 assumes both teams push tempo, but Sacramento’s road inefficiency suggests they’ll struggle to reach their 110.5 average. Utah, meanwhile, should comfortably hit their 118.2 mark against a Kings defense that’s missing key pieces. The math points to Utah covering and the total staying under.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Jazz at home against a Kings team that’s 3-24 on the road and missing two starters is a layup. Sacramento has lost 12 straight, and nothing in their profile suggests they can compete with a Utah team that averages 7.7 more points per game, controls the glass, and distributes the ball more efficiently. The 7-point spread is fair, maybe even generous to the Kings given the injury situation and road futility.
The risk is Utah’s own injury issues—George is a significant loss—but the Jazz just beat Miami on the road without him, and they’re back home where they’re 10-17. Sacramento has no answer for Markkanen, no one to rebound against Filipowski, and no interior presence to replace Sabonis. The Kings will keep it competitive for a half, but the depth and execution gap widens in the second half.
BASH’S BEST BET: Jazz -7.0 for 2 units. Utah covers at home, and Sacramento’s losing streak hits 13.
