The Kings are short-handed, but is 13 points simply too much to lay against a team with Domantas Sabonis? Check out our expert prediction for Lakers vs. Kings and see where the value lies.
The Setup: Kings at Lakers
The Lakers are laying 13 points (BetOnline) at home against a Kings team that’s limping into Crypto.com Arena at 8-23, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Sacramento is banged up, sitting 14th in the Western Conference, and coming off the kind of season where moral victories don’t move the needle. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 19-10 and riding the Luka Doncic experience at full throttle — 33.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game. But here’s the thing — when you start digging into what Sacramento actually does well and how this matchup plays out possession by possession, that 13-point cushion starts to feel stretched. Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why I think it’s giving us value on the wrong side.
The thesis here is simple: the Lakers are the better team, but the margin between these two rosters isn’t wide enough to justify a two-possession spread when you account for pace, efficiency, and the Kings’ ability to keep games competitive through Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan. I’m not saying Sacramento wins this game outright. I’m saying they keep it closer than 13.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 28, 2025, 9:30 ET
Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Spread: Lakers -13.0 (-110) | Kings +13.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -714 | Kings +473
Total: 232.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is telling you that the Lakers should win this game by two possessions, and the reasoning is pretty straightforward. Los Angeles is 19-10 and sitting fifth in the West. Sacramento is 8-23 and has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments. The Lakers have Luka Doncic putting up MVP-caliber numbers, Austin Reaves playing like a legitimate second option at 26.6 points per game, and LeBron James still doing LeBron things at 20.2 points and 6.8 assists. The Kings, meanwhile, are without Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray, two guys who would normally help space the floor and take pressure off their core.
But once you dig into the matchup data, the story gets more nuanced. The Kings aren’t a good team, but they’re not a pushover either. DeMar DeRozan is still averaging 18.7 points and 3.7 assists, and Domantas Sabonis is putting up 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Sabonis controls the glass and creates second-chance opportunities, which matters when you’re trying to keep pace with a high-powered offense. The Lakers are better, but the gap isn’t as wide as 13 points suggests when you factor in how Sacramento can grind possessions and keep the game competitive through physicality and rebounding.
Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Sacramento’s season has been a disaster, but their core pieces are still functional. Sabonis is the engine — 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game — and he’s the kind of player who can dictate tempo and create extra possessions through offensive rebounding. DeRozan, at 18.7 points and 3.7 assists, gives them a steady mid-range scorer who can operate in the half-court when the game slows down. The problem is depth and perimeter shooting. With LaVine and Murray out, the Kings lose two guys who could stretch the floor and force the Lakers to respect the three-point line.
The Kings are 3-13 on the road, which is ugly, but context matters. They’ve played competitive stretches against better teams, and their recent win over Dallas — 113-107 with Russell Westbrook scoring 21 and dishing nine assists — showed they can execute when the rotations tighten. That’s not a team that gets blown out by 15-plus every night. The main risk here is that Sacramento’s lack of perimeter shooting allows the Lakers to load up on Sabonis and DeRozan, but even then, the Kings have enough half-court execution to stay within striking distance.
Lakers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Lakers are rolling, and Luka Doncic is the reason why. Averaging 33.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.7 assists, he’s the best player on the floor in this matchup by a mile. Austin Reaves has emerged as a legitimate secondary scorer at 26.6 points per game, and LeBron is still contributing 20.2 points and 6.8 assists. That’s a three-headed offensive attack that can score in transition, in the half-court, and in late-clock situations.
But here’s where the Lakers’ profile gets interesting: they’re 7-5 at home, which is solid but not dominant. They just lost to Houston 117-96, a game where they never led and got outclassed by a more physical, disciplined team. That tells me the Lakers can be had when the pace slows down and the opponent controls the glass. Gabe Vincent is out, and Jaxson Hayes is doubtful, which thins their frontcourt depth. That matters against a team like Sacramento that’s going to lean on Sabonis to create second-chance opportunities. The Lakers are the better team, but they’re not invincible, and 13 points assumes they’re going to dominate every phase of this game. I don’t see it.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to pace and efficiency. The Lakers want to push tempo and get out in transition, where Luka and Reaves can create easy looks. The Kings want to slow the game down, feed Sabonis in the post, and control the glass. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, the question becomes: can Sacramento stay efficient enough in the half-court to keep this game within two possessions?
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. The Lakers are better offensively, but they’re not so much better that they can afford to give up second-chance points and still cover 13. Sabonis averaging 12.3 rebounds per game is a real problem for a Lakers frontcourt that’s already thin with Hayes likely out. If Sacramento can create 10-12 extra possessions through offensive rebounding, that’s 10-15 points right there. Add in DeRozan’s ability to score in the mid-range and the Kings’ willingness to grind possessions, and suddenly this game feels closer than the spread suggests.
The other factor is the Lakers’ recent loss to Houston. They got beat by a team that played physical, controlled the pace, and didn’t let them get out in transition. Sacramento isn’t Houston, but they can replicate that blueprint. If the Kings keep this game in the half-court and Sabonis dominates the glass, the Lakers are going to have to win this game in the 110-100 range. That’s a 10-point margin, not 13.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Kings +13 for 2 units. The Lakers are the better team, and they should win this game. But 13 points is too many when you account for how Sacramento can control the glass, slow the pace, and keep this game competitive through Sabonis and DeRozan. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The main risk here is that the Lakers get out in transition early and blow this game open before the Kings can establish their half-court offense. But even then, I trust Sacramento to stay within two possessions late.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. The Kings aren’t winning this game, but they’re keeping it close. Give me Sacramento to cover the number and keep this game in the single digits. Kings +13, 2 units.
