The Knicks head into Philadelphia as slim road underdogs, and our primary ATS pick hinges on whether Jalen Brunson can exploit a 76ers defense that surrendered 135 points in their last outing without Joel Embiid.
The Setup: Knicks at 76ers
The Knicks are getting +2.0 on the road in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and that number feels light given the injury situation facing both sides. New York sits at 34-20 with a +5.4 plus/minus on the season, while Philly checks in at 30-23 with a +1.2 mark. The Knicks are the better team by the numbers—they score more (117.6 PPG vs 116.7), shoot better (47.1% FG vs 46.1%), and rebound better (46.2 RPG vs 43.4). But the 76ers are home, Tyrese Maxey is rolling, and Joel Embiid’s status is murky heading into the final game before the All-Star break. The market is pricing this as a coin flip, but the efficiency gap and rotation depth tell a different story once you dig into the possessions math.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 11, 2026, 7:30 ET
Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena
TV Network: ESPN
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: New York Knicks +2.0 (-110) | Philadelphia 76ers -2.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Knicks +109 | 76ers -133
- Total: Over/Under 222.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Philadelphia is laying two points at home despite being the inferior team by nearly every meaningful metric. The market is banking on home court and the possibility that Embiid suits up after missing Monday’s blowout loss in Portland. Without Embiid, the 76ers got torched 135-118 by a Trail Blazers team that shot 8-of-10 from three courtesy of Toumani Camara. That’s not a defensive performance that inspires confidence, even at home.
The Knicks, meanwhile, just dropped an overtime thriller to Indiana 137-134, with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard combining for 54 points. New York’s issue wasn’t effort—it was execution down the stretch and the absence of key rotation pieces. Miles McBride is out with a sports hernia that will sideline him until early April at the earliest, and OG Anunoby is questionable with right toe soreness after missing the last two games. Mitchell Robinson is also questionable as the Knicks manage his minutes on the back-to-back.
The line exists because the market sees Philly’s home split (15-13) as enough to offset New York’s superior shooting, rebounding, and plus/minus. But the 76ers are also dealing with uncertainty. Paul George is out due to suspension through late March, and Embiid’s status is questionable after sitting Monday for right knee injury management. Quentin Grimes is questionable with an illness. If Embiid sits again, this line should be flipped.
Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New York’s offense runs through Jalen Brunson, who’s averaging 27.4 PPG and 6.1 APG while shooting 47.0% from the field and 37.2% from three. Brunson’s pick-and-roll game with Karl-Anthony Towns (19.8 PPG, 11.9 RPG) gives the Knicks a two-man action that Philly will struggle to contain, especially if Embiid isn’t available to protect the rim. Towns is shooting 46.4% overall and pulling down nearly 12 boards a night, which matters against a 76ers team that gets outrebounded by 2.8 boards per game in this matchup.
The Knicks also get elite two-way production from Mikal Bridges (15.8 PPG, 50.2% FG, 38.9% 3PT) and steady perimeter defense when Anunoby is healthy. Without Anunoby, the Knicks lose a versatile wing who can guard multiple positions and contribute 16.6 PPG on 47.9% shooting. His absence puts more pressure on Bridges and opens up minutes for Landry Shamet and Mohamed Diawara, neither of whom provide the same defensive impact.
New York’s road record (12-13) isn’t inspiring, but their efficiency metrics suggest they’re better than that split indicates. The +5.4 plus/minus ranks among the league’s best, and their 37.6% three-point shooting gives them the spacing to punish Philly’s inconsistent perimeter defense.
76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
Philadelphia’s offense lives and dies with Tyrese Maxey, who’s having a monster season at 28.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, and 47.0% shooting. Maxey’s ability to get downhill and create for others keeps the 76ers competitive, but he’s been forced to carry too much of the load with George suspended and Embiid’s availability constantly in flux. Maxey is also turning it over 2.5 times per game, which becomes a problem when he’s handling the ball for 35-plus minutes.
Without Embiid on Monday, Philly had no rim protection and no interior presence. The Trail Blazers shot at will, and the 76ers’ 5.7 blocks per game—typically a strength—disappeared entirely. If Embiid sits again, the Knicks will exploit the paint with Towns and Brunson’s floater game. Philly’s 9.1 steals per game lead the league, but that defensive activity doesn’t translate to wins when the team is giving up 135 points.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (14.3 PPG, 47.8% FG) and VJ Edgecombe (14.9 PPG) provide secondary scoring, but neither can replace George’s two-way impact. Oubre is a streaky shooter, and Edgecombe is a rookie still learning how to manage possessions. The 76ers’ 35.9% three-point shooting lags behind New York’s 37.6%, and that gap matters over 90-plus possessions.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to the paint and the glass. New York holds a 2.8-rebound advantage per game and pulls down 13.2 offensive boards compared to Philly’s 12.2. That extra possession per game turns into 2-3 points over the course of a full game, and in a matchup projected to land near the total of 222, those second-chance opportunities swing the outcome.
The Knicks also hold the edge in ball security, committing 0.2 fewer turnovers per game than the 76ers. That’s not a massive gap, but combined with New York’s superior shooting percentages (47.1% FG vs 46.1%), it means the Knicks are getting cleaner looks and converting at a higher rate. If Embiid sits, Philly loses its best rim protector and the Knicks’ 26.9 assists per game—two full dimes more than Philly’s 24.9—will generate wide-open threes off ball movement.
Defensively, Philadelphia’s 9.1 steals per game suggest an aggressive scheme, but the 76ers also foul more (20.3 fouls vs 20.5) and struggle to close out on shooters. New York’s 37.6% three-point shooting is elite, and Bridges, Brunson, and McBride (when healthy) can all punish overhelping defenders. Without McBride, the Knicks lose a secondary ball-handler who shoots 42.0% from three, but Tyler Kolek and Jordan Clarkson should see increased minutes to fill that void.
The total of 222 feels about right given both teams’ scoring averages, but the under becomes more attractive if Embiid plays and slows the game down. If he sits, expect a faster pace and more transition opportunities for New York’s guards.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Knicks +2.0 on the road. New York is the better team by every efficiency metric that matters, and Philly’s injury situation is a mess heading into the All-Star break. If Embiid plays, the 76ers are competitive, but he’s questionable after sitting Monday for knee management and there’s no incentive to push him before the break. If he sits, this line should be Knicks -2 or better.
The Knicks’ +5.4 plus/minus compared to Philly’s +1.2 tells you who the sharper team is over a full season. New York shoots better, rebounds better, and takes care of the ball better. The 76ers’ home court is worth maybe a point or two, but not enough to overcome the efficiency gap. Even without Anunoby and McBride, the Knicks have enough firepower with Brunson, Towns, and Bridges to control this game.
The risk is Embiid suiting up and dominating the paint, but his recent injury management suggests the 76ers are prioritizing the long haul over one game in February. I’ll take the better team getting points in a spot where the home favorite is banged up and unmotivated.
BASH’S BEST BET: Knicks +2.0 for 2 units.
