The New York Knicks travel to Detroit on an eight-game winning streak to face the top-seeded Pistons. Our betting preview breaks down the statistical dead-heat and explains why the best bet hinges on the Pistons’ back-to-back scheduling spot.
The Setup: Knicks at Pistons
The Knicks roll into Little Caesars Arena riding eight straight wins, and the market has this essentially as a pick’em. New York gets -1.0 on the road against the Eastern Conference’s top seed, and that tells you everything about how the market views this matchup. Detroit sits at 37-13 with a 20-6 home record, while the Knicks are 33-18 but just 11-12 away from Madison Square Garden. The total sits at 223.5, and when you’ve got two teams averaging north of 117 points per game with identical shooting percentages around 47%, that number makes sense. But the spread is the story here—the market is giving New York full credit for their current form despite the significant home-road split and the conference standings gap.
Jalen Brunson just dropped 42 points in a double-overtime win against Denver on Wednesday, carrying the Knicks through their eighth consecutive victory. That’s the kind of performance that moves markets, but it also came in a game that went 134-127 through two extra periods. Meanwhile, Detroit stumbled Thursday night, losing 126-117 to a Washington team that dressed just 10 players. That’s the kind of loss that makes books hesitate to hang a number, especially on the second night of a back-to-back.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons
Date: Friday, February 6, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Little Caesars Arena
TV: Prime Video
Spread: Knicks -1.0 (-110) | Pistons +1.0 (-110)
Total: 223.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Knicks -116 | Pistons -105
Why This Line Exists
A road team getting just one point against the conference’s top seed tells you the market respects momentum over résumé. The Knicks are outscoring opponents by 6.1 points per game this season, while Detroit sits at plus-7.2. That 1.1-point differential in season-long efficiency normally translates to about 2-3 points on a neutral court, and home court adds another 2-3. So theoretically, Detroit should be laying 4-6 points here. Instead, we’re looking at a pick’em.
The explanation lives in the schedule and recent performance. Detroit is coming off a home loss to Washington on Thursday night—Tobias Harris sat out the first half of this back-to-back set, and the Pistons got outplayed by a shorthanded Wizards squad that featured Will Riley and Sharife Cooper leading the way. That’s the kind of letdown that makes oddsmakers nervous about hanging a number, especially when the opponent just beat Denver in double overtime behind a 42-point Brunson explosion. The market is pricing in rest disadvantage and recent form over season-long metrics.
The total at 223.5 reflects two offenses that both average over 117 points per game with nearly identical field goal percentages. New York shoots 47.2% overall and 38.0% from three, while Detroit sits at 47.9% and 34.8% from distance. The Knicks have a slight edge in scoring at 118.2 points per game versus 117.5, but the rebounding battle is essentially even—New York grabs 46.5 boards per game compared to Detroit’s 45.7. When two teams are this closely matched statistically and both play above league-average pace, the books set the total in the 220s and let the market decide.
New York Knicks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Knicks are built around Brunson’s scoring and playmaking, and he’s delivering 27.4 points and 6.1 assists per game on 47.3% shooting. That double-overtime performance against Denver showcased his ability to carry the offense in extended possessions, but it also means he logged heavy minutes on Wednesday. Karl-Anthony Towns provides the interior presence with 19.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, though he played through an eye injury in that Denver game with a bandage over his right eye.
The supporting cast gives New York legitimate depth. OG Anunoby averages 16.6 points with 1.7 steals per game, providing two-way value. Mikal Bridges chips in 15.7 points on 50.2% shooting, and his 38.9% three-point percentage fits the Knicks’ perimeter attack. The concern is the backcourt depth—Miles McBride is out with a sports hernia that won’t see him return until early April at the earliest. Josh Hart is questionable with an ankle issue after sitting out Wednesday’s game, and Jose Alvarado is questionable to make his Knicks debut after being recently acquired.
New York’s 11-12 road record exposes their home-road split. They’re 21-6 at Madison Square Garden but struggle to maintain that same efficiency away from home. The Knicks commit just 13.7 turnovers per game compared to Detroit’s 15.4, which gives them an edge in possession efficiency. But their defensive activity trails significantly—8.0 steals and 4.1 blocks per game compared to Detroit’s 10.6 steals and 6.3 blocks. That’s a difference of nearly five extra defensive plays per game, and those possessions matter in close games.
Detroit Pistons Breakdown: The Other Side
Cade Cunningham runs this offense at 25.4 points and 9.8 assists per game, though his 32.0% three-point shooting and 3.8 turnovers create efficiency questions. Jalen Duren provides interior dominance with 17.7 points and 10.5 rebounds on 63.0% shooting, giving Detroit a consistent paint presence. The issue Thursday night was defensive intensity—Washington scored 126 points against a Detroit team that typically holds opponents in check.
Tobias Harris was held out Thursday as a rest decision with Friday’s game against New York in mind. He averages 13.5 points and 4.6 rebounds, and his return gives Detroit another scoring option in the frontcourt. Duncan Robinson provides floor spacing at 12.2 points per game on 40.1% three-point shooting, while Kevin Huerter adds 10.6 points with secondary playmaking. The depth chart takes hits with Dario Saric out after being traded from Sacramento, and Tolu Smith unavailable despite a strong recent performance.
Detroit’s 20-6 home record reflects their ability to control games at Little Caesars Arena, but the back-to-back situation changes the calculus. The Pistons lead the conference at 37-13 with a plus-7.2 point differential, and their defensive activity edge shows up in the numbers—10.6 steals and 6.3 blocks per game create extra possessions. But Thursday’s loss to Washington revealed vulnerability when the intensity drops, and asking this group to bounce back less than 24 hours later against a team riding eight straight wins is a legitimate concern.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The possession battle determines this spread. New York commits 1.7 fewer turnovers per game, which translates to roughly two extra possessions over 100 trips. Detroit counters with 2.6 more steals and 2.2 more blocks per game, creating approximately five additional possession opportunities through defensive activity. When you run the math on efficiency—both teams shooting around 47% from the field—those extra possessions are worth about 4-5 points over a full game.
The rebounding edge favors New York by 0.8 boards per game, with the Knicks grabbing 13.5 offensive rebounds compared to Detroit’s 13.1. That marginal difference becomes relevant in a one-possession game where second-chance points can decide the outcome. Towns and Duren will battle in the paint, and whichever big man controls the glass likely swings the possession count enough to cover a one-point spread.
Three-point shooting creates the clearest edge. New York hits 38.0% from distance while Detroit sits at 34.8%. That’s a 3.2% gap that, over 30 three-point attempts, translates to roughly one additional made three per game. In a pick’em scenario, that’s the difference between covering and losing. The Knicks have five rotation players shooting above 35% from three, while Detroit relies more heavily on Robinson’s 40.1% and struggles with Cunningham’s 32.0%.
The back-to-back factor can’t be ignored. Detroit played Thursday night and lost focus defensively against Washington. The Pistons allowed 126 points to a team that dressed 10 players, and now they’re facing a Knicks squad that just went double overtime Wednesday. Both teams are working on short rest, but New York has had an extra day and the psychological momentum of eight straight wins. That’s worth at least a point in line value, which explains why the Knicks are getting the number despite being on the road against the conference leader.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The market is telling you to take New York, and I’m listening. The Knicks at -1.0 captures value on a team that shoots better from three, takes care of the ball, and has the superior closer in Brunson. Detroit’s back-to-back spot after a deflating home loss to Washington creates the wrong kind of scheduling disadvantage, especially with Harris likely returning but potentially not at full rhythm after sitting Thursday.
New York’s three-point shooting edge is worth approximately 3 points per game based on volume and efficiency, and their turnover advantage adds another 2-3 points in possession value. That’s a 5-6 point swing in a game the market has as a pick’em. The risk is the double-overtime game Wednesday taking a physical toll on Brunson and Towns, but this Knicks roster has enough depth with Bridges, Anunoby, and potentially Hart returning to handle the load.
Detroit’s defensive activity advantage matters, but Thursday’s performance showed they’re vulnerable to offensive execution when the intensity isn’t there. The Knicks have won eight straight by executing in the half-court and hitting open threes, and that’s exactly the formula to exploit a tired Detroit team playing the second night of a back-to-back. Lay the point with the road team and trust the shooting edge to decide a close game.
BASH’S BEST BET: Knicks -1.0 for 2 units.
