The spread is razor-thin in the desert, but the injury report holds the keys to the castle. Joe NBA breaks down why the status of Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks makes this a “conditional fire play” for Sunday night’s showdown.
Los Angeles Lakers (17-7 SU, 15-9 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (14-11 SU, 16-9 ATS)
NBA Regular Season
Date/Time: December 14, 2025 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
TV: Check local listings
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Lakers -1.0 / Suns +1.0
Money Line: Lakers -117 / Suns -104
Over/Under Total: 228.5
Game Overview
Two teams, both loaded with firepower and question marks, square off in the desert. The Lakers, sitting at 17-7 with a solid 15-9 ATS record, are a legit West contender but arrive without key piece Austin Reaves (27.8 PPG). Phoenix, meanwhile, has injury clouds over Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks—two starters who combine for nearly 47 points a night. Big ifs.
L.A. dropped 4 of its last 5, but don’t let that fool you—they’re 10-3 on the road and still averaging 118.3 PPG behind Luka Doncic’s 35 a night. Phoenix comes in 14-11 SU but an impressive 16-9 ATS, even after getting obliterated 138-89 by OKC. That blowout? Motivational fuel.
Key Matchups & Analysis
This is a game that lives and dies by the injury report. If Booker and Brooks play, Phoenix is the sharp side. Their home court, combined with better recent ATS form and the motivation off an embarrassing 49-point loss, gives them the edge. Add in the fact that the Lakers are without their #2 option? Huge swing.
If Booker sits, the Lakers’ edge is clear. Doncic becomes too much for a Suns backcourt relying on Grayson Allen and spare parts. Add LeBron’s 7.6 assists per game and the Suns’ declining defensive metrics, and this tilts back to L.A. in a hurry.
Don’t ignore the total: both teams trend OVER, and Phoenix’s defense has sprung leaks. The last three games for L.A. averaged 236 total points. If the stars play, we’re riding that OVER 228.5 hard.
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a conditional fire play. Wait for the final lineup news. If Booker plays, I’m hammering Suns +1.0—they’re at home, motivated, and catching the Lakers in a vulnerable spot. If he sits, flip it and ride Lakers -1.0. Either way, I lean toward the Over 228.5 with confidence.
Final Score Prediction:
If Booker plays: Suns 119, Lakers 109
If Booker sits: Lakers 116, Suns 111
Best Bets:
✅ Suns +1.0 (If Booker plays)
✅ Lakers -1.0 (If Booker sits)
✅ Over 228.5 (If both teams are semi-healthy)
