Milwaukee at Brooklyn Game 5 Pick ATS

by | Jun 15, 2021 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (46-26 SU, 32-40 ATS) at Brooklyn Nets (48-24, 38-34), 6/15/21
When: 8:30 pm ET Tuesday, June 15
Where: Barclays Center
Point spread: Mil -4/Brook +4
Total: 217.5

After splitting the first four games of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinals series, the Nets and Bucks play a crucial Game 5 Tuesday night in Brooklyn. The Nets won the first two games of this series at home, while the Bucks won the following games also at home. But Brooklyn lost more than two games in Milwaukee; it lost two of its vaunted Big 3 to injuries. Here’s our homework on this Game 5 with our free NBA playoffs betting pick.

NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting market, with those Nets injuries in mind, opened Brooklyn at +2.5 as a home dog for this Game 5, with an over/under upwards of 223.5 at some shops. Early betting action then bumped that spread to +4 and dropped that total as much as six points, to around 217.5.

The best Game 5 money line we could find on the Bucks was the -175 offered at Intertops while William Hill was giving the Nets +165 to win this game outright.

Bucks-Nets NBA Betting Preview

This series is tied at two games apiece following Milwaukee’s 107-96 Game 4 victory Sunday in Milwaukee. The Bucks only led Brooklyn 44-40 Sunday midway through the second quarter when G Kyrie Irving left the game with a sprained an ankle. Milwaukee then edged away from there, later leading by 19, on their way toward the outright win as a two-point home dog.

The Bucks only shot 44 percent from the field Sunday but held the Nets to 43 percent FG shooting.

With Sunday’s victory/cover, Milwaukee is 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS in these playoffs. With Sunday’s loss, the Nets are 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS this postseason.

The Big News, of course, for this Game 5 is the absence of both James Harden (hamstring) and Irving (ankle) for Brooklyn. The Nets didn’t have their Big 3 together at the same time much this season and, not to too much surprise, played 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS with them in the starting lineup. But to some serious surprise, Brooklyn is 5-1 both SU and ATS this season in games Kevin Durant plays, but Harden and Irving miss.

Brooklyn, with home-court advantage, opened this series lined at around -190 to win it, with Milwaukee getting around +160. Then, after taking the first two games, the Nets were chalked at -480, with the Bucks getting +380. Now, with the series tied at 2-2 and Brooklyn down a couple of guys, the Nets are catching +160 as underdogs, with Milwaukee now a -190 favorite.

The Nets played two games better than the Bucks in the regular-season standings, 48-24 to 46-26, but Milwaukee took the season series from Brooklyn two games to one. However, Irving missed one of those losses for the Nets, and Harden missed both of them.

So on the season, the Bucks are 4-3 SU but 3-4 ATS against the Nets.

Bucks-Nets NBA Playoffs Betting Trends

  • The Bucks played 20-16 SU, 14-22 ATS on the road this season.
  • The Nets played 28-8 SU, 19-17 ATS at home this season. They’re also 5-0 both SU and ATS at home this postseason.
  • The Bucks played 21-16 SU, 15-22 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • The Nets played 17-20 both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
  • The Bucks played 14-20 ATS as road favorites this season.
  • The Nets played 5-3 ATS this season as home dogs.

Totals Report

Overs played 41-30 in Bucks games this season, which averaged 234 points. Overs played 40-32 in Nets games this season, which averaged 233 points. Unders are 4-0 in this series, as the games are averaging just 201 total points against an average O/U of 235.

Free NBA Playoffs Pick

It’s unfortunate Brooklyn is down two of its Big 3; this series would be a lot more fun with Irving and Harden on the floor. And their absences probably can’t be overstated; how can the Nets go on? It will be a tough task. Milwaukee, meanwhile, rides momentum into Game 5, and we like how it’s playing a bit under the radar after wilting last year as the No. 1 seed in the East. We’re betting the Bucks here for our free NBA playoffs pick for Tuesday.