Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns Game 5 Picks

by | Jul 16, 2021 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns, Game 5 NBA Finals, 7/17/21

When: 9 pm ET Saturday, July 17

Where: Suns Arena

TV: ABC

NBA point spread: Mil +4/Phx -4

Total: 218

After splitting the first four games of this NBA Championship series, the Bucks and Suns meet for a crucial Game 5 Saturday night in Phoenix. The Suns won the first two games of this series at home, while the Bucks won the next two games on their home court. So this NBA Finals now comes down to a best-of-three affair. Phoenix opened this NBA Finals as a -185 favorite to win it, with Milwaukee getting +165 as the underdogs. Now, with the Suns still holding home-court advantage, Phoenix is chalked at -155 to become champion, with the Bucks getting +135. Here’s how we homeworked this Game 5 with our free NBA pick.

NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting market opened Phoenix at -4 for Game 5, with an over/under of right around 218.5. Early betting action then dipped that total to 218.

Those bettors out there looking to eschew the point spread here could find the Suns giving around -165 at BetOnline on the Game 5 money line, with Milwaukee getting around +150 at Bovada to win this game outright.

NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Preview

This NBA Championship series is tied at two games apiece following Milwaukee’s 109-103 Game 4 victory at home Wednesday night. The Bucks actually trailed most of the night and 99-97 with two and a half minutes left. But they got three big baskets from Khris Middleton, who finished with 40 points, a massive block on the defensive end from Giannis Antetokounmpo, and 4/4 free throws to end the game on a 12-4 run for the win and the money as 4.5-point favorites.

Also, Game 4 played under a total of 220.5.

On the night, Milwaukee only shot 40 percent from the field and hit just 7/29 from 3-point land, while Phoenix shot 51 percent from the floor. But the Bucks out-scored the Suns 24-16 from the FT line and 15-0 on fast-break points, out-rebounded Phoenix 48-40, and won the turnover battle 17-5, as Suns G Chris Paul had a tough night.

With Wednesday’s win/cover, Milwaukee is now 14-7 SU, 12-9 ATS this postseason.

With Wednesday’s loss, the Suns are now 14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS this postseason.

Phoenix played five games better than the Bucks during the regular season, 51-21 to 46-26, and swept the season series from Milwaukee two games to none. So the Suns are now 4-2, both SU and ATS against the Bucks this season.

Bucks-Suns NBA Betting Trends

  • The Bucks are 5-6, both SU and ATS on the road this postseason.
  • The Suns are 8-2 SU, 6-3 ATS at home this postseason.
  • The Bucks are 3-3 ATS as underdogs this postseason.
  • The Suns are 9-2 ATS this postseason when favored by six points or less.
  • Home teams are 47-36 SU, 42-40 ATS this NBA postseason.
  • Favorites are 52-31 SU, 47-35 ATS this NBA postseason.
  • The home team is 4-0 both SU and ATS in this Finals series.

Totals Report

Unders are 11-8 in Bucks games this postseason.

Unders are 10-8 in Suns games this postseason.

Overs are 41-39 this NBA postseason.

Overs 2-1-1 in this Finals series, as the games are averaging 220 total points against an average over/under of 220. How ’bout that?

Free NBA Finals Pick

Phoenix was our pick to win this Finals series before it began and remains so. And the Suns probably won’t win this series if they lose this Game 5. We see Phoenix as the more consistent of these two teams, plus they shoot 83 percent from the line, which comes in handy when trying to ice games and cover spreads. We’re not big believers in the “zig-zag” theory of NBA playoffs betting, but we’re going with it here. We like the Suns, minus the points, for our free NBA Finals betting pick for Game 5. Bet YOUR game 5 pick(s) for FREE by scoring a GIANT 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (must use bonus code PREDICT100).