RBD breaks down key NBA handicapping trends from the first half and highlights betting spots to monitor in the second half.
I survived the first half of the NBA season.
I come away from it unscathed with a record of 12-9, 57%.
In ALL sports, coming away with ANY profit is an admirable goal since it’s estimated that 97-98% of sports bettors lose.
But it’s especially gratifying for me in the NBA, which admittedly is not my best sport.
But the NBA has not beaten me yet at PredictEm.
I started sharing my picks here at the very end of the 2024 NBA playoffs. I gave out four picks, and hit three of four, going 3-1 for a small profit.
Last year I gave out a full season’s worth of picks and ended up with a plus balance of .15.
Yes, .15.
And I was happy to get it.
It sure as hell beats losing.
Betting on sports provides me with three-way fun.
First, I love the handicapping aspect of it.
Second, I love watching sports on TV and yelling at my TV based on how my action is going.
Third, I like winning my bet and confirming my handicapping was correct.
But betting on the NBA removes the second part of my fun. I can’t stand watching it.
Example – last week I had a bet on the Memphis/Golden State game to go Over.
I tuned in just after the first quarter began, hoping I could try to enjoy a little sports betting action.
Instead, I watched the two teams combine to miss three of four free throws.
I immediately grabbed the remote and began channel flipping, looking for something interesting to watch.
If I want to watch a supposedly “professional” basketball team miss free throws I’ll tune in to a WNBA game, where it’s expected, and therefore not as painful to watch (only 58 days left to the start of their season!)
Entering the second half of my 2026 NBA Battle with the Books I have some data accumulated from the first half that hopefully will let me realize a profit in the second half.
I’ll share it here to help you, too.
One of the situations I look to take advantage of is when teams are playing back to back, two nights in a row (B2B’s.)
I don’t have the data on every team but I have a few edges that I hope will continue to be profitable in the second half.
Sacramento Kings in B2B’s
Let’s start with the Sacramento Kings.
In California, the Lakers and Clippers were televised, so I had more data on those teams than others. In Vegas, we get the Kings, so I’ve been tracking them a little closer than the other teams. And they’ve provided me with a few winning edges.
Game one:
SU 2-8
ATS 6-4
Ov/Un 2-8
Game two:
SU 2-8
ATS 3-7
Ov/Un 7-3
Edges to take advantage of:
Unders in Game one are hitting at 80%.
AGAINST the Kings in Game two is a 70% ATS play.
And you have the same 70% advantage taking the Over in Game two.
This points to a team that is not very deep on the bench. And tired legs on the starters (a losing group of players even with fresh legs) leads to high scoring losses in Game two spots.
Next opportunity:
Wed/Thur 2-25/26, at Houston, at Dal
LA Lakers in B2B’s
Now let’s take a look at one of the most popular teams for bettors to watch and wager on (mostly because people despise LeBron?)
the LA Lakers.
Game one:
SU 5-3
ATS 4-4
Ov/Un 7-1
Game two:
SU 5-3
ATS 5-3
Ov/Un 5-3
In all six categories charted there’s not a single one with a losing record. The only clear advantage is the Over in Game one, where they’re hitting at 87%.
However, I’d be careful about pursuing this trend.
You can speculate on a reason why the Kings don’t play as well in game two situations – their lack of bench strength. But it’s difficult to assign any reasoning as to why the Lakers go Over in Game one, it’s likely just coincidental.
Next opportunity:
Sat/Sun 2-28/3-1, at GS, Sac in LA
NY Knicks in B2B’s
New York is one of if not the most popular sports betting markets.
For those who might be interested in the Knicks stats, I’ve included them here.
Game one:
SU 5-4
ATS 4-5
Ov/Un 6-3
Game two:
SU 5-4
ATS 5-4
Ov/Un 5-4
Everything is hovering at about the .500 range, no edges to exploit, except for the Over in Game one, which is hitting at 67%.
But, like the Lakers in Game one Overs, is there really any reason behind it?
It’s possible that their head coaches play their starters for less time, knowing they’re going to need them again the next night, and the backups allow a lot more points on defense. But to prove or disprove that theory would involve tracking the average minutes starters play during the season and matching it against their minutes in Game one of B2B’s.
And that would take way more time than I’m willing to put into handicapping a sport I don’t even like!
Next opportunity:
Sat/Sun 2-21/2-22, Houston in NY, at Chi
Oklahoma City Thunder in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 8-1
ATS 7-2
Ov/Un 4-5
Game two:
SU 3-6
ATS 1-8
Ov/Un 4-5
The Thunder are the best team in the league at 42-14, but they present us with a strange dichotomy when playing in B2B’s.
In Game one they’re 7-2 ATS.
That’s good for a 77% play ON.
But in Game two, to put it bluntly, they suck.
They’re just 1-8 ATS, an 11% play ON, an 88% Fade! This is difficult to comprehend because they do have a deep bench, but it’s hard to ignore numbers like 88%. Fade ’em!
Next opportunity:
Tue/Wed 2-24/2-25, at Tor, at Det
Summary
Yes, over time, all trends level out.
So even a 1-8, 88% spot is not an automatic play.
It’s just one other factor for you to look at when you’re handicapping a game.
Good luck to us all in the second half…
