The Setup: Cavaliers at Raptors
The books are hanging Cleveland -2 at Scotiabank Arena against a Toronto squad that’s sitting at 12-5 and rolling winners in 11 of their last 12 games? The market’s disrespecting the Raptors here, and I’m not buying the narrative that the Cavs deserve to be road favorites in this spot. Cleveland comes in at 12-6 with Donovan Mitchell dropping 37 in their last outing, but let’s talk about what’s really happening under the hood. The Raptors are 5-2 at home, they’ve got three guys averaging near 20 PPG in a balanced attack, and the books are begging you to take the road favorite in a game where Toronto’s got every advantage except the name recognition. Mitchell’s been electric at 30.8 PPG, but this is exactly the spot where Cleveland burns you – on the road against a hungry home squad that’s been cashing tickets.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 24, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -2.0 (-110) | Toronto Raptors +2.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -127 | Raptors +104
Total: 237.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are selling you Cleveland’s name value and Mitchell’s hot hand, but let’s look at what the records actually tell us. The Cavaliers are 4-3 on the road this season – that’s a barely-above-.500 road team getting chalk against a Raptors squad that’s 7-3 away from home and 5-2 at Scotiabank Arena. You’re paying a premium for Cleveland’s reputation while Toronto’s quietly been one of the best teams in the East at 12-5, sitting second in the conference standings ahead of the Cavs who are third at 12-6.
Here’s what Vegas is banking on: the public sees Donovan Mitchell’s 30.8 PPG and Cleveland’s brand name and automatically assumes they’re the better team. But sharp money knows what’s up here – Toronto’s got three legitimate scoring threats all hovering around 20 PPG with Brandon Ingram at 20.7, RJ Barrett at 19.4, and Scottie Barnes at 19.3. That’s balance, and balance wins in the NBA when you’re catching points at home. The moneyline at Raptors +104 tells you everything – the books think this game’s a coin flip, so why are they giving Cleveland two points? They’re trying to balance action, not tell you who’s winning this game.
The total at 237.5 is interesting too. That’s a high number, which suggests the books expect both offenses to show up. With Mitchell averaging over 30 and Toronto’s three-headed monster all clicking, this has shootout written all over it. But I’m not chasing the total – the value’s in the side.
Cavaliers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Cleveland’s riding high after Mitchell torched the Clippers for 37 points and five threes in a 120-105 win. That’s the good news. The bad news? They’re walking into this game with some serious injury concerns. Jarrett Allen is out with a finger injury, Lonzo Ball is out for injury management, and Craig Porter is day-to-day with a hamstring strain. Allen’s absence is massive – he’s your rim protector and interior presence, and without him, the Cavs are softer in the paint.
Mitchell’s doing Mitchell things at 30.8 PPG with 5.3 APG, and Evan Mobley is holding it down with 18.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG, but this team’s depth is getting tested. De’Andre Hunter’s chipping in 18.1 PPG, which gives them three legitimate scoring options, but when you’re on the road without your starting center against a physical Raptors team, you’re asking Mitchell to carry a heavier load than usual.
The Cavs are 8-3 at home where they can control the environment, but that 4-3 road record tells the real story. This is a team that’s good but not great away from Cleveland, and they’re walking into a buzzsaw in Toronto.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s been one of the league’s best stories early in the season, and nobody’s talking about it. They’re 12-5 overall, 5-2 at home, and they just beat Brooklyn 119-109 with Scottie Barnes scoring 17, Ja’Kobe Walter dropping a season-high 16, and Immanuel Quickley closing with 8 of his 13 points in the fourth quarter. That’s depth, that’s execution, and that’s winning basketball.
The three-headed monster of Ingram (20.7 PPG), Barrett (19.4 PPG), and Barnes (19.3 PPG) gives them scoring balance that Cleveland can’t match, especially with Allen out. Barnes is also grabbing 7.6 RPG and dishing 5.0 APG – he’s not just a scorer, he’s a facilitator who makes everyone better. RJ Barrett’s dealing with a knee issue and will have imaging done Monday, but he played Sunday, so I’m expecting him to suit up here.
Jakob Poeltl sat Sunday for rest, which is actually good news for this game – he’s fresh and ready to dominate the paint against a Cleveland team missing its starting center. The Raptors are 7-3 on the road, which tells you this team can win anywhere, and they’re 5-2 at home where they’re comfortable and confident.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the boards. Cleveland’s missing Jarrett Allen, which means Evan Mobley’s going to be battling Jakob Poeltl (if he plays) and trying to protect the rim by himself. That’s a massive advantage for Toronto, who can attack the basket with Barnes and Barrett while Ingram works his mid-range game.
The pace is going to favor Toronto at home. The Raptors control the tempo at Scotiabank Arena, and with Cleveland on the road without their defensive anchor, I’m expecting Toronto to push the ball and get out in transition. Mitchell can get his 30-plus, but if Toronto’s getting balanced scoring from three guys and winning the paint battle, those Cavs points won’t be enough.
Cleveland’s 4-3 road record versus Toronto’s 5-2 home record is the key split here. The Cavs are a different team away from home, and the Raptors have been money at Scotiabank Arena. I’ve seen this movie before – road favorite in a close spread against a home team that’s been cashing tickets gets exposed when the depth and injuries catch up.
The total at 237.5 suggests both teams can score, but I’m more interested in who’s getting the points. Toronto’s three-way scoring balance beats Cleveland’s Mitchell-heavy attack when you factor in the injuries and the home court.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Toronto Raptors +2 before this line moves. This is value city, folks. You’re getting a 12-5 team that’s 5-2 at home, riding an 11-1 stretch, with three 20-PPG scorers, catching two points against a 4-3 road team that’s missing its starting center. The market’s disrespecting Toronto because Cleveland’s got the bigger name, but sharp money knows what’s up here.
The Raptors win this game straight up, but even if Mitchell goes nuclear again, you’ve got two points of cushion. That’s a trap line designed to get public money on Cleveland, and I’m not biting. Give me Toronto’s balance, give me their home court, give me their health advantage, and give me the two points.
The Play: Toronto Raptors +2 (-110) | 2 Units
This line’s a joke, and Vegas is about to learn that the Raptors aren’t the same team everyone’s been sleeping on. Cleveland’s good, but they’re not two-points-on-the-road-without-their-center good. Take the points, cash the ticket, and thank me later.
