Atlanta enters Sunday as a 9.0-point home favorite, but a deep dive into the efficiency splits reveals a market that is over-valuing the Hawks’ home-court advantage. Given that the efficiency gap projects to a 5.1-point margin over 100 possessions, taking the Nets as our ATS pick provides nearly four points of pure value against a spread inflated by Brooklyn’s recent skid.
The Setup: Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are laying 9 at State Farm Arena against a Nets team that’s lost three straight and looks completely cooked at 15-40. Brooklyn just got boat-raced by Oklahoma City 105-86, shooting under 37% from the field, and now they’re walking into a Sunday afternoon spot against an Atlanta squad that should theoretically roll them. But here’s the thing—this line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. My model projects Atlanta by just 5.1 points in a game expected to hit around 100 possessions. That’s a 3.9-point edge against the spread, and it’s not close. The Hawks are better, sure, but the market’s treating this like a double-digit talent gap when the numbers tell a completely different story. Brooklyn’s offensive rating sits at 109.6 against Atlanta’s 114.8 defensive mark—that’s a medium mismatch, not a blowout setup. The efficiency gap is real but narrow, and nine points is way too many to lay in a game that profiles as a grind-it-out possession battle.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks
Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Arena
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: YES, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -9.0 (-110) | Brooklyn Nets +9.0 (-110)
Total: 229.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks -400 | Brooklyn Nets +296
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Atlanta 9 points because Brooklyn’s record screams disaster—15-40 overall, 7-21 on the road, riding a three-game slide where they’ve looked completely outclassed. The Hawks sit at 27-31, fighting for playoff positioning in the East, and they just got throttled by Miami 128-97 at home. Books are expecting Atlanta to bounce back hard against inferior competition, and on paper, that makes sense. But the net rating edge of 6.2 points per 100 possessions doesn’t support a nine-point spread once you factor in the pace dynamics. This game projects for 100 possessions—a deliberate, halfcourt-heavy contest that limits the Hawks’ ability to separate. Atlanta’s offensive rating of 113.2 against Brooklyn’s 117.4 defensive mark creates a medium mismatch worth roughly 4.2 points of negative value for the Hawks’ offense. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s 109.6 offensive rating against Atlanta’s 114.8 defense sits at a 5.2-point deficit. The possessions math tells a different story than the record differential suggests. Atlanta’s better in efficiency, shooting quality, and ball security, but they’re not nine points better in a game that’s going to hover around 227-228 total points. The Hawks are 10-16 at home this season—hardly a fortress—and Brooklyn’s shown enough offensive firepower with Michael Porter Jr. averaging 24.7 points to keep this within striking distance if the pace stays controlled.
Brooklyn Nets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Brooklyn’s a mess by record, but their offensive efficiency at 109.6 isn’t bottom-five terrible—it’s just paired with a 117.4 defensive rating that bleeds points in transition. The Nets rank 14th in the East, but they’ve got legitimate scoring punch when Porter Jr. gets going. He’s shooting 47.1% from the field and 37.5% from three on high volume, and he’s the only reason Brooklyn stays competitive in most games. Nicolas Claxton provides rim protection with 1.3 blocks per game and shoots 59% from the floor, giving them interior presence when he’s engaged. The problem is depth and defensive consistency—Brooklyn turns it over 15.7 times per game and allows opponents to shoot 54.8% effective field goal percentage. They’re missing Ziaire Williams due to a personal matter, which thins their wing rotation, but Williams was only contributing 9.5 points per game at 40.7% shooting. The real issue is clutch execution—Brooklyn’s 5-18 in close games with a 35.7% field goal percentage in crunch time. If this game stays tight late, they don’t have the composure to close. But in a slower-paced game where they can limit possessions and lean on Porter’s shot-making, they’ve got enough offensive firepower to hang around and cover nine.
Atlanta Hawks Breakdown: The Other Side
Atlanta’s built around Jalen Johnson’s triple-double production—he’s averaging 23.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 8.2 assists while shooting 49.4% from the field. He posted his 11th triple-double of the season in Friday’s loss to Miami, leading the Eastern Conference in that category. The Hawks surround him with shooting—Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 20 points per game on 37.3% from three, CJ McCollum at 18.9 points on 38.7% from deep, and Onyeka Okongwu providing 16.2 points and rim protection. Atlanta’s offensive rating of 113.2 ranks solidly above league average, and their 70.5% assist rate reflects good ball movement and shot creation. The problem is defensive consistency—they’re allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions, which isn’t bad but isn’t lockdown either. They’ve got a 2.6-point effective field goal percentage edge over Brooklyn and turn it over 1.7% less frequently, but they’re also giving up 2.4% more offensive rebounds, which creates second-chance opportunities for opponents. Atlanta’s 10-16 at home and just got destroyed by Miami in this building, so there’s no home-court mystique here. They’re 13-15 in clutch situations with a 46.3% field goal percentage in close games—significantly better than Brooklyn—but this game needs to stay close for that to matter. If the pace stays at 100 possessions and Brooklyn limits transition opportunities, Atlanta’s margin for error shrinks considerably.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the halfcourt, where Brooklyn’s actually competitive and Atlanta’s advantage narrows significantly. The pace blend projects at 100 possessions—well below Brooklyn’s 97.0 season average and Atlanta’s 103.0 mark, signaling a grind-it-out Sunday afternoon game where neither team pushes tempo aggressively. Over 100 possessions, Atlanta’s 6.2 net rating edge translates to roughly six points of expected value, not nine. The Hawks hold a 2.6-point effective field goal percentage advantage, which matters in shot quality, but Brooklyn’s offensive rebounding edge of 2.4% gives them extra possessions to compensate. The real separator should be turnovers—Atlanta’s 1.7% better ball security should create 1-2 extra possessions per game—but that’s not enough to justify this spread in a low-possession environment. Brooklyn’s offense runs through Porter Jr. isolations and Claxton rolls to the rim, and if they can limit Atlanta’s transition opportunities by taking care of the ball, they’ll force the Hawks into halfcourt sets where Johnson’s playmaking gets tested against set defenses. Atlanta’s 46.4% clutch win rate dwarfs Brooklyn’s 21.7%, but that only matters if this game stays within five points in the final five minutes. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—Atlanta’s better, but not by the margin this spread suggests when you account for pace and possession distribution.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The market’s disrespecting Brooklyn here by pricing in their awful record without adjusting for the matchup dynamics and pace context. Nine points is too many in a game that projects for 227.5 total points over 100 possessions. Atlanta’s got the better roster and the home court, but they’re 10-16 at State Farm Arena and just got demolished by Miami in this same building. Brooklyn’s got enough offensive firepower with Porter Jr. to keep this within single digits, especially if the pace stays controlled and they limit transition buckets. The projection sits at Hawks by 5.1, giving us nearly four points of value on the Nets plus-nine. The risk is Brooklyn’s defensive breakdowns leading to easy Atlanta buckets in transition, but in a Sunday afternoon spot where both teams are playing their second game in two days, I expect a sluggish pace that favors the underdog. I’m taking the points all day long.
BASH’S BEST BET: Brooklyn Nets +9.0 for 2 units.
