Don’t let the short spread fool you—New Orleans is in full survival mode. With Dejounte Murray out and key defenders like Herbert Jones dealing with injuries, a Pelicans team that is just 6-18 at home is facing a Brooklyn squad that has the perimeter weapons to turn this into a long night for the Pels.
The Setup: Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
The Nets are currently laying 2 points in New Orleans on Wednesday night, a surprisingly small number for a road favorite facing a team that has dropped six straight on its own floor. Both teams are lottery-bound, both are dealing with injuries, and neither has shown much capacity to defend consistently. The market is essentially saying these are two bad teams, and the slightly-less-bad one gets a tiny cushion.
Here’s the thing — once you dig into the matchup data and look at how these teams actually function possession-by-possession, this line starts to feel like it’s giving Brooklyn too much credit for being the road favorite. The Nets are 6-11 on the road this season, which isn’t inspiring, but the Pelicans are 6-18 at home in the Smoothie King Center. That home record matters, but not as much as the efficiency gap between these two offenses. Let me walk you through why this line exists and where I think the value actually sits.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Date: January 14, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center
TV: Check local listings
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Brooklyn Nets -2.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Brooklyn Nets -130 / New Orleans Pelicans +106
- Total: 228.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Brooklyn as a marginal road favorite because of one primary factor: offensive firepower. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 25.9 points per game for the Nets, and Cam Thomas adds another 18.9 PPG. That’s a legitimate one-two punch that can score in bunches, especially against a Pelicans defense that has been torched repeatedly at home this season.
On the other side, New Orleans has Zion Williamson at 22.3 PPG and Trey Murphy III at 21.9 PPG, which keeps them competitive offensively. But the Pelicans are missing Dejounte Murray for the season and are dealing with questionable statuses for Herbert Jones and potential lineup shuffling. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts toward Brooklyn having more reliable scoring depth.
The total sitting at 228.5 tells you everything about how the market views these defenses. We’re looking at two teams that struggle to get stops, and the number reflects an expectation of transition opportunities and limited half-court resistance. The spread at 2 points is the market’s way of saying Brooklyn should win, but not comfortably.
Brooklyn Nets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Nets are bad, but they’re not devoid of talent. Porter Jr. has been a revelation this season, averaging nearly 26 points while also contributing 7.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. He’s not just a volume scorer — he’s creating offense in multiple ways and giving Brooklyn a legitimate number-one option.
Cam Thomas provides secondary scoring at 18.9 PPG, and Noah Clowney chips in 13.2 PPG. That’s three guys who can get you double figures, which matters in a game where possessions will be plentiful and defense will be optional. Brooklyn’s 6-11 road record isn’t great, but it’s better than New Orleans’ 6-18 home mark, and that context matters when you’re trying to project how this game plays out over 48 minutes.
The Nets are coming off a loss to Dallas where they gave up 113 points, and their defensive consistency remains their biggest issue. But in a matchup against a Pelicans team that’s equally porous on that end, Brooklyn’s offensive weapons give them a legitimate path to covering a short number.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pelicans are in full survival mode. Zion is still producing at 22.3 PPG, and Trey Murphy III has stepped up as a secondary scorer at 21.9 PPG with 6.2 rebounds. Jordan Poole adds 15.6 PPG, which gives New Orleans three capable scorers. But the depth behind that trio is thin, and the absence of Dejounte Murray for the season has left rookie Jeremiah Fears running the point.
Herbert Jones is questionable with an ankle sprain and has appeared in just one game since late December. If he sits again, the Pelicans lose one of their few plus defenders, which would leave them even more vulnerable on the perimeter against Porter Jr. and Thomas. Jose Alvarado is also out with oblique soreness, which removes another rotation piece and forces New Orleans to lean on Bryce McGowens for extended minutes.
The Pelicans’ 9-33 record isn’t just about injuries — it’s about a lack of cohesion and defensive discipline. They’re 3-15 on the road and 6-18 at home, which tells you they struggle everywhere. In a game where both teams will score, the question becomes who has more firepower and fewer liabilities. Right now, that’s Brooklyn.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, but not in the way you’d expect. Both teams will push pace because neither can defend consistently, which means we’re looking at a game with 95-plus possessions and plenty of transition opportunities. The total at 228.5 reflects that reality, and I expect both sides to clear 110 points.
The key difference is Brooklyn’s ability to get consistent offense from Porter Jr. and Thomas without relying on a traditional point guard to orchestrate everything. The Nets can create in isolation, in transition, and off the ball, which gives them multiple ways to score against a Pelicans defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics.
New Orleans will hang around because Zion and Murphy can score, but their depth is compromised. If Jones sits and Alvarado remains out, the Pelicans are asking Fears and McGowens to log heavy minutes against a Nets team that can exploit inexperience. When you do the math over 95 possessions, Brooklyn’s offensive consistency should be enough to win by more than a single possession.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Brooklyn has more proven scorers, fewer question marks in the rotation, and a slightly better road record than New Orleans has at home. That’s enough to make me believe the Nets cover 2 points in a game where both teams will eclipse 110.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing Brooklyn Nets -2 (-110) for 1.5 units. The main risk here is that this game turns into a coin flip down the stretch and New Orleans steals a win at home behind a big Zion performance. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The Pelicans are 6-18 at home for a reason, and their defensive limitations combined with rotation uncertainty make them a tough team to trust, even as a small underdog.
Brooklyn has the better offensive structure, more reliable scoring options, and fewer liabilities in the backcourt. Porter Jr. should dominate this matchup, and if Thomas gets going, the Nets can pull away in the fourth quarter. I expect a final score in the 115-110 range, which gets Brooklyn the cover.
Take the Nets -2 and trust the offensive firepower. This is a game where the better team wins, and Brooklyn — despite their own issues — is the better team.
