The Denver Nuggets head to Rocket Arena as heavy underdogs for a Friday night clash with the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Nikola Jokic sidelined, our expert analysis breaks down whether the double-digit point spread offers enough value for a road ATS pick.
The Setup: Nuggets at Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are laying 13.5 points at home against a Nuggets team that just won without Nikola Jokic. On the surface, this number makes sense — Cleveland’s at home, Denver’s missing their MVP, and the market’s reacting to that absence. But here’s the thing: the Nuggets just beat Toronto 106-103 on the road without Jokic, with Peyton Watson stepping up for 24 points and Jamal Murray adding 21. Denver came into that game 13-23 over the last five seasons without Jokic, so expectations were low. They exceeded them.
Now Cleveland’s coming off a dominant win over Phoenix, with Donovan Mitchell dropping 34 points in a 129-113 blowout that snapped the Suns’ four-game winning streak. The Cavs pulled away in the fourth quarter, and Mitchell’s playing at an elite level — his 18th 30-point game ranks third in the league this season. The market sees a motivated home favorite against a depleted road team and sets the line at nearly two touchdowns. Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why it might be a possession or two too high.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 2, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: Rocket Arena
Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +13.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 236.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -806 | Nuggets +526
Why This Line Exists
The market’s pricing in a massive talent gap, and I get it. Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists this season — he’s the engine that makes Denver’s entire offensive system function. Without him, the Nuggets lose their primary creator, their best rebounder, and their most efficient scorer. That’s not replaceable, and the oddsmakers know it.
On the other side, Cleveland’s playing quality basketball at home with a 12-8 record at Rocket Arena. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 29.7 points per game this season, essentially matching Jokic’s scoring output, and he’s got Evan Mobley (18.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Darius Garland (17.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) providing secondary support. The Cavs have three legitimate scoring threats, while Denver’s leaning heavily on Jamal Murray, who’s averaging 25.1 points and 6.9 assists but is listed as probable with an ankle issue.
The 13.5-point spread reflects the market’s belief that Cleveland’s talent advantage, combined with home court and Denver’s compromised rotation, creates a blowout scenario. But once you dig into the matchup data and what Denver just accomplished in Toronto, this number starts to feel stretched. The Nuggets proved they can compete without Jokic when Murray and Watson elevate their games, and they’re getting 13.5 points — that’s a lot of cushion for a team that’s 23-10 overall and 13-5 on the road.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s 23-10 record ranks third in the conference, and their 13-5 road mark is legitimately impressive. Even without Jokic, this team has enough offensive firepower to stay competitive. Jamal Murray is the key — when he’s healthy and engaged, he’s capable of carrying the offensive load for stretches. His 25.1 points per game this season represents a significant uptick, and he just dropped 21 in Toronto while facilitating the offense without his primary pick-and-roll partner.
Aaron Gordon adds another dimension at 18.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, giving Denver a versatile forward who can attack mismatches and finish around the rim. The Toronto game showed that Peyton Watson can step into an expanded role when needed — his 24-point performance wasn’t a fluke, it was a glimpse of what Denver’s depth can provide in spot situations.
The main concern is Murray’s ankle. He’s listed as probable, which typically means he’ll play, but any limitation in his lateral movement or explosion affects Denver’s ability to generate efficient offense. Without Jokic orchestrating, Murray needs to be at full strength to create for himself and others. If he’s compromised, this spread might not be enough. But if he’s close to 100%, Denver has the talent to keep this game within two possessions.
Cleveland Cavaliers Breakdown: The Other Side
Cleveland’s 19-16 record doesn’t jump off the page, but their 12-8 home mark shows they’re significantly better at Rocket Arena than on the road. Donovan Mitchell is the driving force — his 29.7 points per game leads the team, and his 18 games with 30-plus points demonstrates his ability to take over when needed. Against Phoenix, he did exactly that, scoring 34 in a game where Cleveland pulled away late.
Evan Mobley provides interior presence on both ends, averaging 18.2 points and 9.0 rebounds while offering rim protection and versatility defensively. Darius Garland’s 17.0 points and 6.9 assists give Cleveland a legitimate three-headed offensive attack, and his playmaking helps Mitchell operate off the ball when defenses load up on him.
The Cavs’ injury report shows De’Andre Hunter and Sam Merrill as questionable, but neither is a primary rotation piece that would significantly alter Cleveland’s approach. The bigger question is whether Cleveland can sustain the defensive intensity they showed against Phoenix when facing a Denver team that’s motivated after proving they can win without their best player. The Suns game was dominant, but that doesn’t always translate to covering large spreads against motivated underdogs.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because of how Denver’s proven they can adjust without Jokic. In Toronto, they won by playing faster and relying on perimeter creation rather than their typical half-court sets through the post. That approach can work against Cleveland if Murray’s healthy and Watson continues his elevated play.
Cleveland’s advantage is in the paint with Mobley and their interior defense, but Denver’s shown they can win from the perimeter when needed. The 236.5 total suggests the market expects a relatively high-scoring game, which makes sense given both teams have capable offensive players. But here’s what matters for the spread: Denver doesn’t need to win this game, they just need to stay within 13 points.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — or lack thereof. Yes, Cleveland has more talent on paper, but Denver’s 23-10 record shows they’re a legitimately good team even in difficult spots. Their 13-5 road record means they know how to win away from home, and they just proved they can compete without Jokic. Cleveland’s 12-8 home record is solid, but it’s not dominant enough to justify laying nearly two touchdowns against a quality opponent.
When you do the math over 96 possessions, Cleveland needs to win by 14 or more. That requires either a significant talent execution gap or Denver falling apart defensively. Neither feels likely given what we just saw in Toronto. The Nuggets’ defensive effort kept them in that game, and their offensive execution down the stretch won it. That’s not a team that’s going to roll over for a 20-point loss.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Denver Nuggets +13.5 (-110) for 2 units. This line overreacts to Jokic’s absence without properly accounting for how Denver just won in Toronto and how much cushion 13.5 points provides. Murray’s probable status gives me confidence he’ll be available, and even at 85-90%, he’s good enough to keep Denver competitive with this much padding.
Cleveland’s a better team at home, and Mitchell’s playing at an elite level, but covering 14 points requires dominance that the Cavs haven’t consistently shown this season. Their 19-16 record suggests they’re good but not great, and asking them to blow out a 23-10 Denver team that’s 13-5 on the road feels like too much.
The main risk here is Murray’s ankle limiting him more than expected, or Denver’s defensive effort dropping off after an emotional win in Toronto. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Denver’s got enough talent, enough motivation from proving they can win without Jokic, and enough cushion with 13.5 points to make this a solid play. Give me the Nuggets and the points.
