The Nuggets are 19-8 on the road, but they’ve never looked this vulnerable. Bash explores if Peyton Watson and the Denver bench can provide enough support for Murray and Jokic to cover the point spread against a deep Knicks roster.
The Setup: Nuggets at Knicks
The Knicks are laying 5.5 points at Madison Square Garden against a Nuggets team that’s won 19 of 27 on the road but just lost Aaron Gordon for at least three weeks. New York has won seven straight and sits 20-6 at home, while Denver’s coming off a loss in Detroit where the rotation holes started showing. The market set this number at 5.5 because Gordon’s absence matters—but the Knicks’ efficiency at home and their rebounding edge make this spread tighter than it looks once you account for possessions and pace.
Denver still has Nikola Jokic putting up a triple-double every night at 29.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on an absurd 60.4% shooting. Jamal Murray adds 25.6 points and 7.5 assists at 48.7% from the field. But the Nuggets are now without their third-leading scorer and primary defensive wing, and Peyton Watson stepping into a larger role doesn’t solve the depth problem against a Knicks team that runs eight deep with legitimate two-way contributors.
New York’s seven-game win streak includes a 132-101 demolition of Washington on Tuesday, with Karl-Anthony Towns posting 19 points and 14 rebounds, Mikal Bridges dropping 23 points, and Jalen Brunson adding 21. The Knicks average 117.9 points per game and lead Denver in rebounding by 4.1 boards per game—including a massive 13.6 offensive rebounds per game compared to Denver’s 9.4. That’s where this game gets decided.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Denver Nuggets (33-18) at New York Knicks (32-18)
Date: Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden
TV: ESPN
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Knicks -5.5 (-110) / Nuggets +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -222 / Nuggets +176
Total: Over/Under 226.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market set the Knicks as 5.5-point favorites because New York holds a 20-6 home record and a +6.0 plus/minus compared to Denver’s +4.1. The Gordon injury pushed this number higher—he was averaging 17.7 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 50.9% from the field. Losing that production and defensive versatility against a Knicks offense that features Brunson, Towns, Bridges, and OG Anunoby creates a rotation mismatch Denver can’t easily solve.
Denver still scores 120.0 points per game compared to New York’s 117.9, and the Nuggets shoot 49.5% from the field and 39.8% from three compared to the Knicks’ 47.1% and 38.0%. Jokic and Murray give Denver the two best offensive players on the floor most nights. But the Knicks’ rebounding advantage—46.5 boards per game to Denver’s 42.4—creates extra possessions, and New York’s 8.1 steals per game compared to Denver’s 6.9 means more transition opportunities against a Nuggets defense that’s now thinner on the perimeter.
The total sits at 226.5 because both teams can score. Denver averages 120 per game, the Knicks put up 117.9, and neither defense dominates. The Nuggets commit just 12.6 turnovers per game compared to New York’s 13.7, which keeps possessions clean and the pace efficient. But New York’s offensive rebounding—13.6 per game—extends possessions and pushes the total higher when Towns and Anunoby crash the glass against a Denver frontcourt missing Gordon’s size and athleticism.
Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Denver’s offense runs through Jokic, and the reigning MVP candidate is putting up historic numbers. His 60.4% shooting and 44.5% three-point percentage make him impossible to guard in the post or at the elbow, and his 10.5 assists per game mean the Nuggets generate quality looks even when defenses collapse. Murray complements that with 25.6 points and 44.1% three-point shooting, giving Denver two guys who can score in isolation or off the pick-and-roll.
The problem is depth. Gordon’s absence leaves Peyton Watson as the primary forward option, and while Watson averages 15.0 points and 4.9 rebounds on 50.1% shooting, he’s not replacing Gordon’s defensive versatility or rebounding presence. Tim Hardaway Jr. provides 13.8 points off the bench, but he’s a shooting specialist who doesn’t rebound or defend at Gordon’s level. Cameron Johnson remains doubtful with a right knee bone bruise, missing his 22nd consecutive game, which further limits Denver’s wing rotation.
Denver’s 19-8 road record shows they can win away from home, but they just lost in Detroit 124-121 despite Jokic and Murray’s production. The Nuggets allow teams to attack the glass and generate second-chance points, and against a Knicks team that leads the league in offensive rebounding, that’s a problem Denver can’t solve without Gordon’s size and positioning.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
New York’s seven-game win streak is built on balance and defensive activity. Brunson leads the offense with 27.1 points and 6.0 assists, Towns anchors the paint with 19.8 points and 11.9 rebounds, and Bridges provides two-way production at 15.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while shooting 50.5% from the field. Anunoby adds 16.5 points and 5.4 rebounds with elite perimeter defense, and Miles McBride chips in 12.9 points and 42.0% three-point shooting off the bench—though he’s questionable for Wednesday.
The Knicks’ rebounding advantage is the difference. New York grabs 13.6 offensive boards per game, which creates second-chance points and extends possessions against a Denver team that’s now undersized without Gordon. Towns and Anunoby attack the glass aggressively, and the Knicks’ 8.1 steals per game generate transition opportunities that Denver’s thinned-out defense struggles to contain.
New York’s 20-6 home record reflects their efficiency at MSG, where the crowd and familiarity create an edge. The Knicks shoot 47.1% from the field and 38.0% from three, which isn’t elite, but their offensive rebounding and defensive activity create enough extra possessions to cover against teams that can’t match their depth. Denver’s rotation issues play directly into New York’s strengths.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to rebounding and rotation depth. The Knicks average 4.1 more rebounds per game than Denver, and that gap widens with Gordon out. New York’s 13.6 offensive boards per game compared to Denver’s 9.4 means the Knicks generate roughly four extra possessions per game just from second-chance opportunities. Over a 95-possession game, that’s an additional eight to ten points the Nuggets have to overcome.
Denver’s offensive efficiency keeps them competitive. Jokic and Murray combine for 54.7 points per game on elite shooting percentages, and the Nuggets commit just 12.6 turnovers per game compared to New York’s 13.7. That clean possession management limits transition opportunities for the Knicks and keeps Denver’s halfcourt offense humming. But the Knicks’ defensive activity—8.1 steals per game—creates enough chaos to disrupt Denver’s secondary options, and without Gordon’s scoring and playmaking, the Nuggets’ bench can’t match New York’s production.
The total at 226.5 reflects both teams’ ability to score, but New York’s rebounding edge pushes this number higher. The Knicks generate extra possessions, and Towns’ ability to score inside against a Denver frontcourt missing Gordon’s rim protection creates easy buckets. Denver will score—Jokic and Murray guarantee that—but the Nuggets’ defense can’t stop New York’s balanced attack without Gordon’s versatility.
New York’s seven-game win streak includes dominant performances against weaker competition, but the Knicks’ efficiency at home and their rebounding advantage create a legitimate edge against a Denver team that’s thinner and less versatile without Gordon. The Nuggets’ 19-8 road record shows they can win away from home, but this matchup favors the deeper, more physical team.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m backing the Knicks to cover -5.5 at home. New York’s rebounding advantage and rotation depth create a mismatch Denver can’t solve without Gordon, and the Knicks’ seven-game win streak reflects their efficiency when playing at MSG. Denver will keep this competitive—Jokic and Murray guarantee that—but the Nuggets’ inability to control the glass or match New York’s defensive activity means the Knicks pull away in the fourth quarter.
The main risk is Jokic going nuclear and dragging Denver to a cover through sheer brilliance. He’s capable of 40-point triple-doubles, and Murray can get hot from three. But the Knicks’ +6.0 plus/minus compared to Denver’s +4.1 reflects their ability to win possessions over the course of a full game, and New York’s rebounding edge creates enough extra opportunities to cover a 5.5-point spread.
BASH’S BEST BET: Knicks -5.5 for 2 units.
New York’s depth and rebounding advantage create a clear path to a double-digit win at Madison Square Garden. Denver fights, but the Knicks cover.
