Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
Monday, November 9, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Toyota Center
The Rockets are 8.5-point favorites over the Nuggets with a total of 217.5, and my play is Houston -8.5.
At 3:25 Sunday morning, the Denver Nuggets were sitting on a plane in Mexico City with a door that wouldn’t close. That’s the whole handicap in one sentence, and the rest is details.
According to a timeline from Nuggets broadcaster Katy Winge, reported by DenverSports.com, the team got to the airport at 9 p.m. Saturday after beating Indiana, found out the plane had a problem, waited for a part that showed up at 1 a.m., then got off the plane when the door jammed. The buses went back to the hotels at 5 a.m. They didn’t get in the air until 4:54 p.m. Sunday, more than 21 hours after leaving the arena. Then the injury report dropped: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and DeMar DeRozan, all questionable.
The market moved four points, and it may not be enough
This line opened at Houston -4.5 and is now -8.5 at most books. The total fell from 222.5 to 217.5. That’s a big move, so it’s fair to ask whether the value is gone. I don’t think it is, because Houston was the better team before anybody’s flight got canceled.
The Rockets are plus-9.3 per 100 possessions, fifth-best in the league according to Basketball Reference, with an offense scoring 119.4 points per 100 and a defense allowing 110.1. Denver is plus-2.1 and is giving up 115.4 per 100, worse than league average. Adjust for schedule and Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System has Houston at 12.69 and a full-strength Denver at 6.09. That’s about a six-and-a-half-point gap before home court. So even a rested, healthy Nuggets team would deserve to be a decent-sized dog here. This version is neither.
Jokic is on the injury report for the first time all season with a right elbow sprain, per Heavy.com. He played 35 minutes in Mexico City and shot 7-for-20. Gordon and Johnson are listed for “injury management,” which sounds a lot like a team that hasn’t slept.
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Houston has a bad mood and a home crowd
The Rockets have dropped two straight, a 10-point loss to Minnesota and a 102-99 loss in Phoenix on Saturday, where Kevin Durant missed a three in the final seconds against his old team. Ime Udoka was not thrilled. “We got outhustled, all the loose balls, the 50/50 balls, and that was the theme in both of these nights,” he told reporters, per Field Level Media.
That’s the coach you want in your corner when the other team walks in on fumes. Houston is 4-1 at home, and those home wins include a 21-point beating of Oklahoma City and a 16-point win over Boston. The Rockets are rested and on their own court, and they found something in Phoenix: a 22-3 run to close the first half with Jabari Smith Jr. playing center in a small-ball group. Udoka says he’s sticking with it, and with Clint Capela and Steven Adams both out, he doesn’t have much choice.
The risk. This is a pick on a game where nobody knows who’s playing yet, and I’m saying that plainly. If Jokic and Murray both suit up and look fresh, the four-point move looks like an overreaction, and a three-time MVP can win a game on muscle memory. Houston’s size problem is real too. Without Capela and Adams, Jokic could feast on the glass and in the post. Denver also got 43 points from its bench on Saturday, so the backups aren’t nothing. I’d lay this up to -9.5. If Denver confirms that Jokic and Murray are both in before tip, I’d treat it as a pass, not a bet.
Projected score: Rockets 117, Nuggets 104
The Pick: Rockets -8.5
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