The Indiana Pacers head to Milwaukee as slim road favorites, catching a Bucks team still reeling from the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Our analytical preview breaks down the shooting splits and the impact of Indiana’s new interior anchor, Ivica Zubac, to provide a sharp ATS pick for this Friday night matchup.
The Setup: Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
The Pacers are road favorites at Fiserv Forum on Friday night, and that sentence alone should tell you everything about where both franchises stand. Indiana comes in at 13-38, losers of their last contest to a seven-man Jazz rotation. Milwaukee sits at 20-29, treading water without Giannis Antetokounmpo. The line opened with Indiana laying 1.5 points, and while that feels disrespectful to the home team, the numbers explain exactly why the market landed here. Milwaukee averages 112.1 points per game compared to Indiana’s 110.9, but the Bucks shoot 48.2% from the field and 39.4% from three while the Pacers limp along at 44.7% and 34.6% respectively. The efficiency gap is real. The question is whether Milwaukee’s depleted roster can capitalize on it without their superstar anchor.
Indiana’s 3-20 road record screams fade material, but this isn’t a typical road spot. They’re catching a Milwaukee team that’s missing its best player and struggling to find defensive identity. Pascal Siakam leads the Pacers at 23.8 points per game on 48.5% shooting, and Andrew Nembhard has stepped into expanded usage at 17.3 points and 7.5 assists. The Bucks counter with Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. both averaging 16.8 points, but neither carries the defensive gravity that Giannis provides. This total sits at 224.5, and with both teams running negative plus/minus marks—Indiana at -7.7, Milwaukee at -3.9—the market expects points in bunches with minimal resistance.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 6, 2026, 8:00 ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum
TV Network: Home: FanDuel SN WI | Away: NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN IN
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Indiana Pacers -1.5 (-110) | Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -125 | Milwaukee Bucks +102
- Total: Over 224.5 (-110) | Under 224.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is telling you that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence—he’s out indefinitely with a right calf strain—fundamentally breaks Milwaukee’s value proposition. The Bucks hold a 20-29 record with an 11-12 mark at home, but those numbers were built with Giannis carrying the offensive load at 28.0 points per game on 64.5% shooting. Without him, Milwaukee loses its primary rim pressure, its best defensive switchability, and the player who commands double teams that create open looks for Bobby Portis and Ryan Rollins. Indiana gets 1.5 points despite being 3-20 on the road because the market views this as a talent mismatch even with both rosters compromised.
Milwaukee’s shooting percentages suggest they should be competitive—48.2% from the field and 39.4% from three are both significantly better than Indiana’s marks. But those numbers were accumulated with Giannis collapsing defenses. The Bucks average 26.4 assists per game compared to Indiana’s 25.9, but that half-assist edge means nothing when your primary creator is unavailable. The Pacers commit 14.3 turnovers per game versus Milwaukee’s 14.5, essentially a wash. The rebounding battle tilts toward Indiana at 42.8 boards per game, with 10.6 offensive rebounds creating second-chance opportunities against a Milwaukee team that gives up 8.6 offensive boards per contest.
The total at 224.5 reflects both teams’ defensive struggles. Indiana allows opponents to score freely—their -7.7 plus/minus is bottom-tier—while Milwaukee’s -3.9 mark shows they’re not exactly locking down either. The market expects both offenses to find clean looks in transition and half-court sets with minimal resistance.
Indiana Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Pascal Siakam is the engine here, averaging 23.8 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.1% from three. His mid-range game and ability to attack closeouts give Indiana a reliable half-court option when possessions break down. Andrew Nembhard at 17.3 points and 7.5 assists provides secondary creation, though his 2.4 turnovers per game show he’s still adjusting to expanded usage without Tyrese Haliburton. Ivica Zubac, recently acquired, averages 14.4 points and 11.0 rebounds on 61.3% shooting, giving the Pacers interior presence they’ve lacked most of the season.
The problem is depth. Obi Toppin is out indefinitely, and Micah Potter is questionable with a bruised left hip. If Potter can’t go, Indiana leans heavily on Zubac and Jay Huff to absorb frontcourt minutes. Aaron Nesmith provides perimeter shooting at 37.1% from three, but his 38.6% overall field goal percentage shows he’s a streaky option. The Pacers’ 3-20 road record isn’t just bad luck—they struggle to maintain defensive intensity away from home, and their 44.7% shooting mark drops further in hostile environments.
Indiana’s 10.6 offensive rebounds per game create extra possessions, but they need those second chances because their half-court offense stalls frequently. Against a Milwaukee team missing Giannis, the Pacers should find driving lanes and kick-out threes, but their 34.6% three-point shooting means they need volume to compensate for efficiency.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: The Other Side
Without Giannis, Milwaukee becomes a committee-by-necessity operation. Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. both average 16.8 points, with Rollins shooting 40.6% from three and Porter Jr. contributing 7.5 assists and 2.3 steals. Bobby Portis at 13.2 points and 6.7 rebounds provides veteran scoring, and his 45.2% three-point shooting makes him a legitimate floor-spacing threat. Kyle Kuzma adds 13.0 points and 5.0 rebounds, but his 33.1% three-point mark shows inconsistency.
The Bucks’ 48.2% field goal percentage and 39.4% three-point shooting are impressive, but those numbers were built with Giannis creating advantages. Porter Jr. handles primary ball-handling duties now, but his 3.3 turnovers per game reveal the pressure of increased responsibility. Gary Harris is questionable after missing four games, and his return would provide perimeter shooting, but he’s not a difference-maker at this stage of his career.
Milwaukee’s 11-12 home record suggests they’re competitive at Fiserv Forum, but that includes games with Giannis healthy. The Bucks average 112.1 points per game, just 1.2 more than Indiana, and their -3.9 plus/minus shows they’re barely treading water. Defensively, they allow opponents to shoot efficiently—Indiana’s 48.5% field goal percentage from Siakam alone will test Milwaukee’s rim protection without Giannis patrolling the paint.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether Milwaukee can compensate for Giannis’s 28.0 points per game through collective effort. The Bucks need Rollins, Porter Jr., Portis, and Kuzma to combine for 60-plus points to stay competitive, and that’s asking a lot against even a mediocre Indiana defense. The Pacers hold edges in rebounding—42.8 boards per game versus Milwaukee’s 40.9—and offensive rebounding specifically at 10.6 to 8.6. Those extra possessions matter in a game where both teams struggle to defend consistently.
Indiana’s 7.4 steals and 4.9 blocks per game slightly edge Milwaukee’s 7.5 steals and 4.1 blocks, suggesting the Pacers create more defensive disruption. But neither team forces opponents into mistakes consistently. The turnover battle sits at 14.3 for Indiana versus 14.5 for Milwaukee—essentially even. The Pacers need Siakam and Nembhard to attack Milwaukee’s interior without Giannis protecting the rim. If Zubac establishes position early, he should dominate against Portis and whoever else Milwaukee throws at him.
The total at 224.5 factors in both teams’ defensive limitations. Indiana allows 118.6 points per game based on their -7.7 plus/minus, while Milwaukee gives up 116.0 based on their -3.9 mark. Neither team locks down in transition or half-court sets, and both offenses should find clean looks. The question is whether either team can string together enough stops to stay under that number. With Indiana shooting 34.6% from three and Milwaukee at 39.4%, the Bucks hold a significant efficiency edge from deep that could push this total over if they get hot.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110) for 2 units. Yes, Indiana is the better team on paper even at 13-38, and yes, Milwaukee is missing Giannis. But laying points with a 3-20 road team in a hostile environment against a home squad that shoots 48.2% from the field and 39.4% from three feels like chasing the wrong narrative. The Bucks are 11-12 at home, and while that’s not impressive, it shows they compete at Fiserv Forum. Rollins, Porter Jr., and Portis have enough collective firepower to keep this within a possession, and Indiana’s defensive limitations—evidenced by their -7.7 plus/minus—give Milwaukee clean looks.
The risk is obvious: Indiana has more top-end talent with Siakam and a healthy Zubac, and they should control the glass. But 1.5 points gives Milwaukee margin for error in a game that projects as a coin flip. If the Bucks shoot anywhere near their season averages from three, they cover easily. If they struggle, they still have home court and desperation to stay competitive in a lost season.
BASH’S BEST BET: Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110) for 2 units.
