The New York Knicks return to Madison Square Garden riding a wave of momentum after a statement win in Boston. Will the home favorites continue their dominant run, or should you read on to get our expert’s ATS pick for this Eastern Conference clash?
The Setup: Pacers at Knicks
The Knicks are laying 12 points at Madison Square Garden against a Pacers team that’s won just three road games all season. Indiana sits at 13-40, 3-22 away from home, while New York is 21-6 at MSG and riding a dominant win in Boston where Jalen Brunson dropped 31 and the Celtics never led after the opening minutes. The spread screams blowout, and the season-long numbers support it—New York averages 6.7 more points per game, shoots better from everywhere, and holds a +5.5 plus/minus compared to Indiana’s -7.9. But here’s what matters: the Pacers just got Ivica Zubac in a trade, and while he’s questionable with an ankle sprain, his presence—or absence—shifts how this game plays out in the paint. The Knicks are also managing rest with Mitchell Robinson sitting the first half of a back-to-back, and OG Anunoby remains questionable with right toe soreness. The line is big, but the talent gap and venue advantage make it tough to fade New York in a spot where they should control pace and efficiency.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Tuesday, February 10, 2026, 7:30 ET
Where: Madison Square Garden
Watch: MSG (home), FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass
Spread: Knicks -12.0 (-110) | Pacers +12.0 (-110)
Total: 223.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Knicks -667 | Pacers +448
Why This Line Exists
Twelve points is a statement number, and it’s built on a foundation of efficiency and venue dominance. New York shoots 47.0% from the field and 37.8% from three, compared to Indiana’s 44.7% and 34.5%. The Knicks also commit fewer turnovers—13.6 per game versus 14.3—which means more clean possessions in a game where they already score 6.7 more points per contest. The rebounding edge tilts toward New York by 3.5 boards per game, and the offensive glass disparity is significant: the Knicks pull down 13.3 offensive rebounds per game compared to Indiana’s 10.5. That’s extra possessions in a game where New York is already more efficient. Factor in Indiana’s 3-22 road record and New York’s 21-6 home mark, and the market is pricing in a talent mismatch that gets magnified at MSG. The Pacers are without Tyrese Haliburton for the season and Obi Toppin through the All-Star break, which leaves Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard carrying the offensive load against a Knicks defense that’s been stingy at home. The total at 223.5 reflects New York’s ability to push tempo when they want, but also their willingness to grind possessions when the opponent can’t keep up.
Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Indiana’s season has been a slog without Haliburton, and the numbers reflect it. Siakam is averaging 23.6 points on 48.2% shooting, but he’s doing it without the spacing and playmaking that made the Pacers dangerous last year. Nembhard has stepped into a bigger role with 17.3 points and 7.4 assists, but his efficiency has dipped—43.8% from the field and 35.9% from three—and he’s turning it over 2.4 times per game. Zubac, acquired from the Clippers, is questionable with a left ankle sprain and hasn’t played a game for Indiana yet. If he sits, Jay Huff likely starts, which means the Pacers lose a legitimate rim presence who was averaging 12.4 points and 12.0 rebounds in his final stretch with LA. Aaron Nesmith provides some perimeter shooting at 37.1% from three, but his overall field goal percentage sits at just 38.9%, which limits his impact when the shot isn’t falling. The Pacers average 7.4 steals and 4.8 blocks, so they can generate some defensive activity, but their -7.9 plus/minus tells the real story: they’re getting outscored consistently, especially on the road where they’ve won just three times.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
New York is rolling, and the win in Boston on Sunday showed how complete this team can be when the rotation clicks. Brunson is averaging 27.1 points and 6.1 assists on 46.9% shooting, and he’s the engine that makes everything work. Karl-Anthony Towns provides 19.7 points and 11.9 rebounds, and while his efficiency has been solid—46.3% from the field, 35.3% from three—his ability to space the floor and crash the glass gives New York a dimension most teams can’t match. Mikal Bridges has been quietly excellent with 15.7 points on 50.0% shooting and 39.0% from three, and his defensive versatility means he can shadow Siakam or Nembhard depending on the matchup. OG Anunoby is questionable with right toe soreness after missing the last two games, but if he plays, his 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals add another layer of two-way impact. Miles McBride is out with a sports hernia, which shifts some backcourt minutes, but the Knicks have enough depth to absorb it. Mitchell Robinson is sitting the first half of the back-to-back for rest, which means Ariel Hukporti could see extended minutes in the paint. The Knicks are +5.5 on the season and 21-6 at home for a reason—they execute, they defend, and they don’t beat themselves.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to possessions and efficiency, and the Knicks have the edge in both. New York’s offensive rebounding advantage—13.3 per game versus Indiana’s 10.5—means they’ll generate second-chance points that extend possessions and wear down a Pacers defense that’s already struggling. If Zubac sits, the Pacers lose their best interior presence, and Towns will dominate the glass and the paint. Brunson’s ability to control tempo matters here because Indiana doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to slow him down consistently. Nembhard will try, but Brunson is averaging over 27 a night and shooting nearly 47% from the field—he’s going to get his numbers. The rebounding disparity also affects the total: more offensive boards for New York means more possessions, which pushes the scoring up even if the pace stays moderate. Indiana’s 14.3 turnovers per game compared to New York’s 13.6 might not seem like much, but over 90-plus possessions, that’s the difference between two or three extra scoring chances for the Knicks. The Pacers will try to generate steals and blocks—they average 12.2 combined—but New York’s execution and home-court discipline make that a tough ask. If Anunoby plays, his perimeter defense on Siakam becomes a critical factor. If he sits, Bridges can slide into that role, and the Knicks still have the versatility to contain Indiana’s top scorer.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 12 with the Knicks. The talent gap is real, the venue advantage is real, and the efficiency numbers support a double-digit win. Indiana is 3-22 on the road and missing key rotation pieces, while New York is 21-6 at MSG and coming off a dominant performance in Boston. The rebounding edge alone should generate enough extra possessions for the Knicks to pull away in the second half, and Brunson’s ability to control the game in crunch time means New York can push the lead when it matters. The risk is obvious—12 is a big number, and if the Knicks take their foot off the gas in the fourth, it gets tight. But the season-long data says New York wins this by 13-plus more often than not, and I trust their execution at home against a Pacers team that’s been brutal away from Indiana. If Zubac sits, this becomes even more lopsided in the paint. If Anunoby plays, the Knicks have another two-way weapon. The math backs the spread, and the venue seals it.
BASH’S BEST BET: Knicks -12.0 for 2 units.
