Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks
Monday, November 9, 2026
8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center
Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite over Indiana at most books with the total at 222.5, and my play is Mavericks -3.5 (-110).
Which team is really the tired one tonight? The schedule says Dallas, since the Mavs played at home Sunday night. The box score says otherwise. Sunday’s 130-93 rout of Brooklyn was over so early that Cooper Flagg played 28 minutes and Kyrie Irving played 29. Indiana spent its weekend losing to Denver in Mexico City and then flying north to Dallas.
Indiana is running the offense by committee, and the committee is short-staffed
Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain, and T.J. McConnell is questionable with a right hamstring strain of his own. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are also out. That leaves Andrew Nembhard (7.0 assists per game) running the show and Pascal Siakam (21.4 points) doing the heavy lifting.
They can win that way now and then, like last week’s 107-103 grinder in Memphis when six Pacers scored in double figures. But the bigger picture is a 3-7 team scoring 109.7 points per 100 possessions, well under the league average of 113.1, per Basketball Reference. That’s not enough firepower to trade baskets with Flagg and Irving for 48 minutes.
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Flagg has been terrific in his second season, averaging 23.9 points and 6.4 assists, and he had 25 points and 12 assists in that easy win over the Nets. Irving has started each of the last three games and scored 29, 14 and 21. Dallas is 2-1 in that stretch, and the only loss came by one point in San Antonio on the night Victor Wembanyama scored 52. The Mavs already handled this matchup once, beating Indiana 121-105 on Oct. 23.
The numbers lean the same way. Dallas carries a positive net rating, meaning it outscores teams per possession, and Indiana sits at minus-3.9 points per 100 possessions. With home court on top of that, a field goal and a hook is a fair price to pay.
The case against laying it
Dereck Lively II is still out, along with Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic, so the Dallas rotation is thinner than it looks. Back-to-backs bite in the fourth quarter, and if the jumpers stop falling, a scrappy Pacers group could hang around and steal a backdoor cover. The market has also moved off 2.5, and the crowd is all over Dallas. I’d play this up to -4, and I’d pass at -4.5 or worse. Check McConnell’s status before tip, because his return would give Indiana another ball-handler it badly needs.
Projected score: Mavericks 114, Pacers 106
The Pick: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
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