Philadelphia is laying double digits at home, but the Pelicans’ recent defensive resurgence suggests a tighter battle. We dive into the rebounding stats and the point spread to find the value.
The Setup: Pelicans at 76ers
Philadelphia’s laying 10 points at home against a Pelicans squad that just took down Memphis 114-106 behind 22 points each from Saddiq Bey and Derik Queen. New Orleans sits at 13-37, but that record tells you more about their season-long chaos than what they’re capable of in a single possession sequence. The Sixers are 26-21 and coming off a thriller where Tyrese Maxey dropped 40 and Joel Embiid added 37 to edge Sacramento 113-111. Maxey’s averaging 29.4 points and 6.9 assists on the season, while Embiid’s at 25.7 and 7.4 boards. That’s elite firepower, no question. But when you’re asking a team to cover double digits without Dejounte Murray—who’s been out all season recovering from a torn right Achilles—you’re banking on a blowout against a Pelicans team that’s shown flashes of competence when Zion Williamson gets rolling. Williamson’s put up 20-plus in four straight games and is averaging 22.0 points on the year. This line feels inflated by record differential rather than possession-based reality.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena
TV: NBC Sports Phil (Home), GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Pelicans +10.0 (-110) | 76ers -10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Pelicans +331 | 76ers -455
Total: 231.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving you 10 points because Philadelphia’s home, they’re 14-13 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and they just watched Maxey and Embiid combine for 77 points in a comeback win. New Orleans is 5-18 on the road and sits 14th in the Eastern Conference—wait, they’re Western Conference, which makes that 13-37 record even uglier in context. The Sixers are 6th in the East and theoretically should boat-race a team this far below .500. But here’s what the line doesn’t account for: New Orleans just beat a Grizzlies team on Friday night with balanced scoring from Williamson, Bey, Queen, and Herb Jones, who added 16. That’s four guys in double figures, and Williamson’s been consistent with 22.0 per game on the season. The Pelicans aren’t a good team, but they’re not a team that folds on the road without a fight when their best player is engaged. Trey Murphy III is averaging 21.6 points and 5.8 boards, giving them a secondary scorer who can stretch the floor. The 76ers are the better team, but 10 points asks them to win by multiple possessions in a game where New Orleans has enough offensive talent to keep it within striking distance if Philadelphia has any lulls.
Pelicans Breakdown: What You Need to Know
New Orleans is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting Memphis on Friday, which is a legitimate concern for rotation depth and energy. But their top-end talent is healthy and producing. Williamson’s 22.0 points per game come with 6.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, and he’s been aggressive in the paint over his last four games. Murphy III gives them perimeter shooting at 21.6 points per contest, and Bey’s 16.1 points and 5.9 boards provide a third scoring option who can defend multiple positions. The loss of Dejounte Murray for the season removes their primary playmaker, but rookie Jeremiah Fears has been handling point guard duties, and the Pelicans have adapted by leaning on Williamson’s ability to create from the elbow and short roll. Jones adds 16 points in spot duty and gives them a versatile defender who can switch across multiple positions. The 5-18 road record is ugly, but this is a team that scored 114 on Memphis less than 24 hours ago. They’re not rolling over for double-digit spreads without making you earn it.
76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
Philadelphia’s offense runs through Maxey’s 29.4 points and 6.9 assists, and he’s been spectacular in crunch time—witness the game-winning layup with 1.3 seconds left against Sacramento. Embiid’s 25.7 points and 7.4 rebounds give them interior dominance when he’s engaged, and Paul George’s 16.0 points and 5.1 boards provide a third option who can create his own shot. The Sixers are 26-21 overall and 14-13 at home, which isn’t the kind of home-court dominance that makes you feel great about laying 10. Quentin Grimes is probable after missing two games with a right ankle sprain, but he’s been inefficient lately—8.5 points on 40.6 percent shooting and 22.9 percent from three over his last 10 games. That’s not the kind of depth production that helps you blow out a team with multiple scoring threats. MarJon Beauchamp is questionable and hasn’t played meaningful NBA minutes in years. The 76ers are talented enough to win this game by 15, but they’re also capable of letting New Orleans hang around if their transition defense slips or if Embiid gets into foul trouble early.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Philadelphia can sustain defensive intensity over 48 minutes against a Pelicans team playing their second game in two nights. New Orleans doesn’t have the depth to run with the Sixers in a high-possession game, but they don’t need to—they just need to keep it close enough that a few Williamson buckets and Murphy threes keep them within 7-8 points late. The total sits at 231.5, which suggests the market expects a moderately paced game with both teams capable of scoring in the 110-120 range. Philadelphia’s home splits show they’re 14-13 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, which means they’ve lost nearly as many as they’ve won on their own floor. That’s not a team that consistently blows out inferior opponents. The Pelicans are 5-18 on the road, but they’re also coming off a game where they scored 114 and had four players in double figures. If Williamson gets downhill early and Murphy finds his stroke from three, this becomes a game where the Sixers need Maxey and Embiid to be perfect down the stretch. And if that’s the case, 10 points is too many to give a team with legitimate NBA scoring talent.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Pelicans +10 for 2 units. This isn’t about New Orleans winning the game—it’s about them keeping it within single digits when the final buzzer sounds. Williamson’s been consistent with 20-plus in four straight, Murphy’s averaging 21.6 on the season, and Bey just dropped 22 on Memphis. That’s enough offensive firepower to hang around against a 76ers team that’s 14-13 at home and just survived Sacramento by two points. The back-to-back is a concern, but the Pelicans played at home on Friday, so travel isn’t a factor. The risk is Philadelphia coming out angry after nearly blowing a lead to the Kings and deciding to make a statement early. But even if that happens, New Orleans has shown they can score in bunches when Williamson gets going. Ten points is too many to lay against a team that just put up 114 and has multiple guys who can get you 20 on any given night. Take the points and trust the math.
BASH’S BEST BET: Pelicans +10.0 for 2 units.
