Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Pick ATS
When: 9 pm ET Tuesday, July 20
Where: Fiserv Forum
NBA point spread: Phx +5/Mil -5
After losing the first two games of this NBA Championship series, the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves one win away from their first NBA title since 1971, heading into Game 6 Tuesday night in Beer City. Milwaukee fell down two games to none to the Suns, then won the next three games, including Game 5 on the road, to take the series lead. The Bucks opened this series as +165 underdogs to win it, with Phoenix favored by -185. Now, with two chances to win it, Milwaukee is lined at -395, with the Suns getting +295. Here’s our homework for this Game 6, with our free NBA Finals ATS pick.
NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Odds
The NBA playoffs betting market opened Milwaukee at -5 for Game 6, with an over/under of right around 223. Early betting action then dipped that total to 222.
NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Preview
Milwaukee leads this NBA Championship series three games to two, following its 123-119 Game 5 victory in Phoenix Saturday night. The Bucks fell behind to the Suns 32-16 in the first quarter Saturday but rallied to lead 64-61 into the half. Milwaukee later led by 10 points with just over three minutes to go, let Phoenix get within 120-119 with 56 seconds left but used a key steal, a dunk, and a free-throw to secure the outright win as 3.5-point underdogs.
Also, Game 5 played over a total of 219.5, as both teams shot well.
On the night, the Bucks shot 58 percent from the floor while the Suns shot 55 percent. Milwaukee also hit 14/28 from 3-point land, Phoenix 13/19. And while the Bucks won the battle on the boards 37-35, the Suns won the turnover battle 12-9. Milwaukee just made a couple more plays than Phoenix down the stretch.
With Saturday’s win/cover, the Bucks are now 15-7 SU, 13-9 ATS this postseason.
With Saturday’s loss, the Suns are now 14-7 SU, 13-8 ATS this postseason.
Phoenix played five games better than Milwaukee during the regular season, 51-21 to 46-26, and swept the season series from the Bucks two games to none. So the Suns are now 4-3, both SU and ATS against Milwaukee this season.
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Bucks-Suns NBA Betting Trends
- The Suns are 6-4, both SU and ATS on the road this postseason.
- The Bucks are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS at home this postseason.
- Home teams are 47-37 SU, 42-41 ATS this NBA postseason.
- Favorites are 52-32 SU, 47-36 ATS this NBA postseason.
- The home team is 4-1, both SU and ATS in this Finals series.
Unders are 10-9 in Suns games this postseason.
Unders are 11-9 in Bucks games this postseason.
Overs are 41-40 this NBA postseason.
Overs 3-1-1 in this Finals series, as the games are averaging 224 total points against an average over/under of 220.
Free NBA Finals Pick
We picked Phoenix to win this NBA Championship series before it began, and we still give the Suns a good chance to do so. Phoenix won the first two games of this series and had chances to win the last two games, only to come up short late. And both of the previous two games played very close, decided by a couple of buckets. We expect this game to play close, too, which brings five points into play. Plus, the way this series is playing out, we’re guessing it will go seven games. Milwaukee’s come up big the last three times out, but we like the Suns here and won’t be surprised if they win this game outright.