Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans Pick ATS

by | Mar 15, 2022 | nba

Phoenix Suns (54-14 SU, 36-32-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (28-40 SU, 33-34-1 ATS)
When: Tuesday March 15 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: BSAZ

Point Spread: PHX -5.5/NOP +5.5 (Opened PHX -5.5 at MyBookie)
Total: 225 (Opened at 225)
Money Line: Phoenix Suns -223/New Orleans Pelicans 182
Power Rating: PHX -8

Probable Starting Lineups

Phoenix Suns PG Cam Payne, SG Devin Booker, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton
New Orleans Pelicans PG C.J. McCollum Q, SG Herb Jones, SF Naji Marshall, PF Jaxson Hayes, C Jonas Valanciunas

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns Cameron Johnson: Quadricep (OUT) Dario Saric: Knee (OUT) Chris Paul: Thumb (OUT) Frank Kaminsky: Knee (OUT)

New Orleans Pelicans CJ McCollum: Illness (OUT) Brandon Ingram: Hamstring (OUT) Larry Nance Jr.: Knee (OUT) Kira Lewis Jr.: Knee (OUT) Zion Williamson: Foot (OUT)

The New Orleans Pelicans host the Phoenix Suns in a Western-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:00 PM ET at the Smoothie King Center.

Recent Form

The Phoenix Suns come into this game with an overall record of 54-14, placing them 1st in the Western Conference. So far, Phoenix is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 25-6. Over their last five games, the Suns have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Phoenix’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 117.0 points per game. Combined, the Suns’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though Phoenix has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 110.0 points per game, up from the Suns’ usual rate of 106.1. In the Phoenix Suns’ most recent game, Phoenix took down the LA Lakers by a score of 140-111

The New Orleans Pelicans come into this game with an overall record of 28-40, placing them 10nd in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, New Orleans has struggled in their 35 home contests, sitting at 16-19. Over the Pelicans’ last five games, they have picked up just 1 win. During this stretch, New Orleans is averaging 119.0 points per game, 11.0 points more than their season average of 108.2. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 113.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Pelicans’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 125.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 109.9. In the New Orleans Pelicans’ most recent game, New Orleans took down Houston by a score of 130-105.

Individual Player Analysis

As Phoenix travels to take on the New Orleans Pelicans, the Suns’ leading scorer is Devin Booker. Through 65 games, Booker is averaging 25 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 49.0% of his games. Against the Pelicans, Booker will need to be on top of his game as New Orleans is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 37.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, New Orleans will be without CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, their two leading scorers. With their absences, Jonas Valanciunas will be expected to carry the scoring load. So far, he is averaging 18 points per contest on 53% shooting from the field. If he is going to have a big game, he will need to do so against a Suns defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 40.74%. This figure is good for a rank of 5th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Phoenix Suns are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 26 of Phoenix’s 31 games, leading to a winning percentage of 92%. So far, the New Orleans Pelicans have played 48 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 48 times, by an average margin of -14.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans have met up for 3 games. In their last meeting, New Orleans picked up a 117-102 win.

How the Public is Betting the Suns vs Pelicans

67% are betting the Suns against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 225.0

More Picks: Nets vs. Magic Point Spread Prediction 3/15/22 >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
  • Pelicans are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
  • Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this game, the top-seeded Suns are 5.5 road favorites against New Orleans. For the year, Phoenix has been better against the spread when playing on the road, posting an ATS record of 19-12. Look for the Suns to pick up another win vs the spread, as the Pelicans will be without their two top playmakers in CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. I expect the remaining cast of players to struggle against a Phoenix defense, ranking 1st in opponent field goal percentage. At 5.5 points, I see the Suns easily covering this spread.