With Austin Reaves sidelined and Toronto missing key interior depth, Bryan Bash delivers an expert prediction on which superstar duo will dominate this narrow pick’em in Los Angeles.
The Setup: Raptors at Lakers
The Lakers are laying just a point at home against Toronto on Sunday night, and that narrow spread tells you everything about how the market views two teams dealing with rotation chaos. Los Angeles sits at 24-16 but just lost Austin Reaves to injury—a guy averaging 26.6 points per game this season. Toronto comes in at 25-18 but is missing RJ Barrett for a fifth straight game, plus Jakob Poeltl remains out with a back strain. This line opened essentially as a pick’em, and that’s the market saying neither team has a clear advantage when you strip away their second-best scorers and factor in the depth issues both sides are facing.
The thesis here is simple: when two teams lose key rotation pieces, the game compresses toward the stars who remain. For the Lakers, that means leaning even harder on Luka Doncic (33.6 PPG, 8.7 APG) and LeBron James (22.6 PPG). For Toronto, it’s Brandon Ingram (21.8 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (19.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 5.5 APG) carrying the load. The question isn’t who wins—it’s whether either team can generate enough efficient possessions to separate in a game that’s likely to tighten in the fourth quarter.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Crypto.com Arena
TV: Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net + (Home) | TSN, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Lakers -1.0 (-110) | Raptors +1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -118 | Raptors -104
Total: Over 225.0 (-110) | Under 225.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Lakers -1 because the home court advantage is nearly offset by the injury situations on both sides. Reaves’ absence is massive—he’s been the Lakers’ second-leading scorer and primary creator alongside Doncic. Without him, Los Angeles loses a guy who can run pick-and-roll, space the floor, and handle late-game possessions when Doncic sits or gets trapped. That’s a 26-point-per-game hole that doesn’t get filled by committee.
Toronto’s injury situation is equally problematic. Barrett was averaging 19.6 points and providing secondary playmaking. Poeltl’s absence removes rim protection and interior presence, forcing Toronto to lean on smaller lineups or inexperienced bigs like Collin Murray-Boyles. The Raptors also lost a tight overtime game to the Clippers on Friday night, which means they’re playing on one day of rest after an emotional loss. That’s not a scheduling disaster, but it’s not ideal when you’re already short-handed.
The total at 225 reflects the uncertainty around offensive efficiency when both teams are missing key scorers. The market is essentially saying this game could go either way—tight, grind-it-out possessions where neither team can consistently generate clean looks. That’s why the spread is a single point and the moneyline is nearly even.
Toronto Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Raptors sit at 25-18 and rank fourth in the Eastern Conference, but they’re 12-8 on the road, which shows they can compete away from home. The problem is depth. With Barrett and Poeltl out, Toronto is asking Ingram and Barnes to do everything. Ingram is efficient as a scorer but doesn’t create for others at an elite level—he’s averaging just 3.7 assists per game. Barnes is the better playmaker at 5.5 assists, but he’s not a volume scorer who can take over games single-handedly.
The Raptors also lost Chucky Hepburn, who was averaging 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 appearances. That’s a significant loss in terms of ball movement and secondary creation. Without Hepburn, Toronto’s bench gets thinner, and the starters have to play extended minutes. That’s manageable for one game, but it limits the Raptors’ ability to maintain pace and pressure defensively over 48 minutes.
Toronto’s recent loss to the Clippers in overtime shows they can hang with good teams, but they couldn’t close. James Harden and the Clippers pulled away when it mattered, and that’s the concern here—can Toronto execute in crunch time without their full rotation?
Los Angeles Breakdown: The Other Side
The Lakers are 24-16 and sitting sixth in the West, but they just got blown out by Portland 132-116 without Doncic. That game exposed how dependent this team is on their stars. When Doncic sits or struggles, the Lakers don’t have reliable secondary creation. Reaves was that guy, and now he’s gone for an extended stretch.
Doncic is averaging 33.6 points and 8.7 assists, which means he’s carrying an enormous offensive load. LeBron is still productive at 22.6 points per game, but he’s not the guy who can play 40 minutes every night and dominate both ends. The Lakers will likely lean on Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht, and potentially Bronny James to fill minutes in the backcourt, but none of those guys replicate what Reaves brought as a scorer and facilitator.
The Lakers are 11-8 at home, which is solid but not dominant. They’ve struggled to separate from average teams at Crypto.com Arena, and this game fits that profile. Toronto isn’t a pushover, and with the Lakers missing Reaves, this becomes a game where Doncic and LeBron have to be perfect. If either has an off night, the Lakers don’t have the depth to compensate.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to which team can generate efficient half-court offense when their depth is compromised. Both teams are missing key creators, which means possessions will be harder to come by. The Lakers have the advantage in star power with Doncic and LeBron, but Toronto has better balance with Ingram and Barnes both capable of carrying stretches.
The total at 225 assumes both teams will struggle to reach 113 points, which is reasonable given the injury situations. The Lakers scored just 116 against Portland, and that was with Doncic out and the Blazers playing at a faster pace. Toronto scored 117 in overtime against the Clippers, but that required an extra five minutes. In regulation, these teams are more likely to hover around 108-112 points each.
Defensively, the Lakers have the edge with LeBron still capable of guarding multiple positions and Smart providing perimeter pressure. Toronto’s defense suffers without Poeltl protecting the rim, which means the Lakers can attack the paint more freely. That’s where Doncic and LeBron thrive—getting downhill and either finishing or kicking to shooters.
The pace will be slower than usual because neither team has the depth to push tempo consistently. That favors the Lakers, who can control possessions with Doncic running the offense. Toronto needs to speed the game up to create transition opportunities, but without Hepburn and Barrett, they don’t have the ball handlers to consistently push in transition.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the point with the Lakers at home. Yes, they’re missing Reaves, but they still have Doncic and LeBron, and that’s more star power than Toronto can match with their current rotation. The Raptors are playing on one day of rest after an overtime loss, and they’re missing three rotation players. That’s too much to overcome on the road against a Lakers team that can control pace and grind out possessions.
The risk here is that the Lakers’ depth issues catch up to them in the fourth quarter, and Toronto steals a close game. But I trust Doncic and LeBron to execute in crunch time more than I trust Ingram and Barnes to carry the Raptors without their full supporting cast. The Lakers are also at home, where they’ve been solid at 11-8, and they’re coming off an embarrassing loss to Portland. That’s a motivational spot for a team that needs to prove they can win without Reaves.
BASH’S BEST BET: Lakers -1.0 for 2 units.
This line is tight because the injuries matter, but the Lakers have the better stars and the home court. That’s enough to cover a single point in a game that should stay close throughout.
