The Rockets head to the Moda Center as 6.5-point favorites, but they’ll be without offensive hub Alperen Sengun and floor general Fred VanVleet. Bryan Bash breaks down why Kevin Durant’s heroics might not be enough to cover against a Trail Blazers squad that just dropped 137 points.
The Setup: Rockets at Trail Blazers
The Rockets are laying 6.5 points on the road in Portland on January 7, 2026, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Houston sits at 22-11 with Kevin Durant anchoring a legitimately dangerous squad, while Portland checks in at 17-20 and firmly on the playoff bubble. Here’s the thing — this line exists before you account for what Houston is missing. Alperen Sengun is out with a sprained right ankle, and Fred VanVleet remains sidelined, stripping the Rockets of two players who defined their identity all season. That’s not just rotation depth — that’s their primary facilitator and their best interior scorer gone in one swoop.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why it might be giving Portland more credit than the market realizes. The Blazers just dropped 137 on Utah with Deni Avdija going for 33 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds in three quarters. Shaedon Sharpe added 29. They’re playing with pace, confidence, and offensive rhythm at home. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a dramatic 100-97 win over Phoenix where Durant hit a 27-footer with 1.1 seconds left — the kind of game that wins you two points but costs you energy. Now they’re flying to Portland on short rest without two of their best players. The Rockets are still favored because Durant is that good, but 6.5 points feels like the market is betting on star power without fully pricing in the efficiency gap this creates.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 7, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Spread: Houston Rockets -6.5 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -270 | Trail Blazers +212
Total: Over/Under 225.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Houston 6.5 points on the road because of their 22-11 record and the presence of Kevin Durant, who’s averaging 25.7 points per game and just proved he can win games in the clutch. The Rockets have been one of the more disciplined teams in the league this season, and their 11-9 road record shows they can win away from home. Portland, at 17-20, is below .500 and ranked 9th in the conference. That’s typically enough to justify a road favorite in the 5.5 to 7-point range.
But once you dig into the matchup data, this line starts to feel stretched. Sengun was averaging 21.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists — he wasn’t just a scorer, he was Houston’s offensive hub. VanVleet’s absence is equally significant. The Rockets went 41-19 with him on the court last season, and while Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson will absorb ball-handling duties, neither provides the same floor management or shooting gravity. Steven Adams will likely start in Sengun’s place, but he’s not a pick-and-roll threat or a passer. Clint Capela will see more minutes off the bench, but this is a roster suddenly relying on Durant to do everything — and asking Amen Thompson, who’s averaging 18.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, to carry creation duties he hasn’t been asked to handle all season.
Portland, meanwhile, is healthier than they’ve been in weeks. Deni Avdija is playing like an All-Star, putting up 25.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game. Shaedon Sharpe is scoring 21.6 per game, and the Blazers just hung 137 on Utah at home. They’re missing Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant, but Caleb Love has stepped up, averaging 16.9 points and 3.6 threes over 29.5 minutes in his last eight games. The Blazers aren’t a great team, but they’re playing with offensive pace and confidence, and they’re at home where they’re 8-9 — not dominant, but competitive.
Houston Rockets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Rockets are built around Durant’s scoring and Sengun’s playmaking, and without the latter, this offense loses its most versatile piece. Durant is still Durant — he just hit a game-winner against Phoenix and remains one of the most efficient scorers in the league at 25.7 points per game. But asking him to carry the offensive load without a secondary creator or a true pick-and-roll threat changes the math. Amen Thompson will handle more on-ball reps, and while he’s talented, he’s not a floor spacer. That clogs driving lanes for Durant and limits Houston’s ability to generate easy looks in transition or in the half-court.
Defensively, Houston has been solid, but Sengun’s absence hurts their ability to protect the rim and switch on the perimeter. Steven Adams is a traditional big who can rebound and set screens, but he’s not mobile enough to defend in space against a team like Portland that wants to push pace and attack in transition. The Rockets are also playing their second game in three nights after a tight win over Phoenix. That’s not a back-to-back, but it’s short rest on the road, and the emotional drain of a buzzer-beater win can linger.
Houston’s 11-9 road record shows they can win away from home, but those wins came with Sengun and VanVleet on the floor. This is a different team now, and the margin for error is much thinner.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s season has been inconsistent, but they’re starting to find an identity around Avdija and Sharpe. Avdija has been a revelation, averaging 25.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists — he’s not just scoring, he’s facilitating and controlling pace. Sharpe is a dynamic scorer at 21.6 points per game, and when both are clicking, this offense can put up points in bunches. They just dropped 137 on Utah, and Avdija nearly had a triple-double in three quarters. That’s not just a hot shooting night — that’s offensive rhythm and execution.
The Blazers are missing Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant, which hurts their perimeter defense and secondary scoring, but Caleb Love has filled in admirably. His 16.9 points and 3.6 threes over 29.5 minutes in his last eight games gives Portland another shooter who can punish defenses that load up on Avdija and Sharpe. The Blazers want to play fast, and they’re at home where they’re 8-9 — not great, but they’ve been competitive in most games at the Moda Center.
The main concern for Portland is consistency. They can score, but they can also go cold for stretches, and their defense isn’t good enough to win low-scoring games. But against a shorthanded Houston team that’s missing its two best facilitators, Portland’s pace and offensive firepower could be enough to keep this game close — or even win it outright.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the margins, and I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Houston’s offense runs through Sengun’s playmaking and VanVleet’s ball-handling, and without them, the Rockets are relying on Durant to create everything. That’s a lot to ask, even for a player of his caliber. Portland, meanwhile, has two dynamic scorers in Avdija and Sharpe who can attack a Houston defense that’s thinner at the point of attack without VanVleet’s perimeter pressure.
Pace is another factor. Portland wants to push, and Houston’s best way to control this game is to slow it down and play through Durant in the half-court. But without Sengun’s passing, Houston’s half-court offense becomes more predictable, and Portland can load up on Durant and force role players to beat them. Steven Adams and Clint Capela are solid, but neither is a pick-and-roll threat or a floor spacer. That limits Houston’s ability to generate easy looks, and over 96 possessions, that adds up.
The Blazers are also at home, and while their 8-9 home record isn’t dominant, they’ve been competitive in most games at the Moda Center. Houston’s 11-9 road record is solid, but again, those wins came with a full roster. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Houston covering 6.5.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) for 2 units. Here’s the thing — I’m not saying Portland wins this game outright, though they certainly could. I’m saying Houston doesn’t have the firepower or the depth to win by seven or more on the road without Sengun and VanVleet. Durant will get his, but asking him to carry this offense for 35-plus minutes against a Portland team that’s playing with confidence and pace is a tall order. Avdija and Sharpe have the scoring punch to keep this game within a possession or two, and Portland’s home court gives them just enough edge to stay competitive.
The main risk here is Durant going supernova and willing Houston to a double-digit win. He’s capable of it — we just saw him hit a game-winner against Phoenix. But over a full game, against a team that can score and push pace, I don’t see Houston pulling away. The math doesn’t support it, and the matchup doesn’t either. Give me Portland to cover at home.
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110) | 2 units
