Fading the public pays. Bash breaks down why the massive line on Denver is a fool’s errand. Read his sharp prediction for Spurs at Nuggets and grab the value before the line moves.
The Setup: Spurs at Nuggets
This line’s a joke. The Nuggets are laying 8.5 points at home against a Spurs squad that’s 12-5 straight up and hanging tough on the road at 4-3? I’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends with the public getting torched. Look, I get it—Nikola Jokic is putting up a triple-double every other night at 29.6 points, 12.8 boards, and 11.1 assists per game. The man’s an absolute monster. But let’s pump the brakes on laying nearly nine points against a San Antonio team that’s got Victor Wembanyama averaging 26.2 points and 12.9 rebounds while playing legitimate two-way basketball.
The books are begging you to take Denver here, and I’m not buying it. Yes, the Nuggets are 13-4 and sitting pretty at third in the West. Yes, they’re 6-2 at Ball Arena. But San Antonio just went into Portland and hung 115 on the Blazers with De’Aaron Fox dropping 37 and Devin Vassell adding 23. This Spurs squad has legitimate firepower, and they’re not rolling over for anyone. The market’s disrespecting San Antonio here, and that’s exactly where we find value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 28, 2025, 9:30 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-110) | San Antonio Spurs +8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets -370 | Spurs +283
Total: Over/Under 238.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down why Vegas hung this number at 8.5, because it’s not as straightforward as you think. The Nuggets are 13-4 and riding high after Jamal Murray dropped 29 with eight assists and Peyton Watson went off for 27 in Memphis. That recency bias is real, and the public eats it up. Everyone sees Jokic’s triple-doubles and thinks this is an automatic cover at home.
But here’s what the market’s not telling you: the Spurs are 12-5 with legitimate star power. Wembanyama is averaging 26.2 and 12.9—those are franchise player numbers. Fox is chipping in 25.0 points and 6.3 assists per game. This isn’t some bottom-feeding tanking squad rolling into Denver to collect a paycheck. San Antonio’s got a fifth-ranked conference position for a reason.
The injury situation tilts this perception even more. Denver’s missing Aaron Gordon (18.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG) for four to six weeks with a hamstring issue, plus Christian Braun is out for six weeks with an ankle sprain. That’s real rotation depth gone. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s only missing Jordan McLaughlin and has Stephon Castle (17.3 PPG, 7.5 APG) working his way back from a hip flexor strain. The market’s giving you 8.5 points on a team that’s healthier and hungrier than the spread suggests.
Sharp money knows what’s up here—this number should be closer to six. The fact it’s pushed to 8.5 tells me they want Denver action, and I’m fading that all day long.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
San Antonio’s 12-5 record isn’t a fluke. This team is built around Wembanyama’s generational two-way ability, and they’re getting offensive contributions from multiple sources. Fox at 25.0 points per game gives them a legitimate secondary scorer who can attack the rim and create for others with 6.3 assists nightly. When Vassell adds 23 like he did in Portland, this offense has three legitimate weapons.
The Spurs are 8-2 at home and 4-3 on the road, which shows they can compete anywhere. That road split is crucial here—they’re not some soft squad that wilts under pressure in hostile environments. They just won in Portland, keeping their NBA Cup hopes alive with a 115-102 victory where they controlled the game from start to finish.
Castle’s absence hurts (17.3 PPG, 7.5 APG), but they’ve managed without him. The real story is Wembanyama’s development. At 26.2 points and 12.9 rebounds per game, he’s not just meeting expectations—he’s exceeding them. His defensive presence alone changes how teams attack, and against a Nuggets squad missing Gordon’s athleticism and Braun’s perimeter defense, Wemby could absolutely dominate the paint on both ends.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Denver’s 13-4 record is impressive, and Jokic’s 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per game make him the best player on the floor in any matchup. The man’s recording triple-doubles like clockwork—he’s already got 10 this season. Murray’s 23.2 points and 6.8 assists provide the perfect complement, and when he’s hitting like he did in Memphis (29 points, eight assists), this offense is virtually unstoppable.
But here’s the problem: they’re missing significant pieces. Gordon’s 18.8 points and 5.9 rebounds aren’t easily replaced, especially against a length-and-athleticism team like San Antonio. Braun’s absence removes perimeter defense and transition scoring. Julian Strawther is also out, further thinning the rotation. That’s three rotation players gone, and in a game where depth matters, that’s a real issue.
The Nuggets are 6-2 at Ball Arena, which is solid but not dominant. They’re also 7-2 on the road, suggesting they’re a better overall team than a home-court juggernaut. This is exactly the spot where Denver burns you—they’re favored heavy at home, everyone expects them to cruise, and suddenly a motivated opponent with elite talent keeps it close or wins outright.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to two critical battles: Jokic versus Wembanyama in the paint, and the depth game on the perimeter. Jokic is the better player right now—there’s no debate. But Wembanyama’s length and defensive instincts can disrupt Denver’s offensive flow in ways most centers can’t. If Wemby forces Jokic into tough shots and cleans the glass (12.9 RPG says he will), San Antonio stays in this game.
The total sitting at 238.0 tells you Vegas expects points, and with two offensively gifted teams, that makes sense. But here’s the thing: San Antonio’s got the defensive personnel to slow Denver down. Wembanyama’s rim protection combined with Fox’s on-ball pressure creates problems. Denver’s missing Gordon’s versatility on both ends, which means they’re more predictable offensively and vulnerable defensively.
The pace will favor Denver at Ball Arena—they’ll want to push tempo and get Jokic operating in space. But San Antonio’s shown they can control games in hostile environments (4-3 road record). If they turn this into a halfcourt grind and make Denver execute in the clutch without Gordon’s athleticism, the Spurs can absolutely cover this bloated number.
Fox and Murray is another key matchup. Both are averaging over 23 points per game, both facilitate for others, and both can take over games. The difference? Fox just dropped 37 in Portland and looks locked in. Murray’s been solid (29 in Memphis), but he’s not carrying the same momentum as Fox right now.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Spurs +8.5 before this number moves. This line’s a trap, plain and simple. The public’s all over Denver because they see Jokic’s triple-doubles and assume this is a blowout. But San Antonio’s 12-5 with legitimate star power, they’re healthier than Denver’s depleted rotation, and they just proved in Portland they can win on the road when it matters.
Eight and a half points is way too many. This game stays within single digits, and there’s a real chance San Antonio wins outright at +283. Wembanyama’s going to make life difficult for Jokic, Fox is playing at an elite level, and Denver’s missing three rotation players. That’s a recipe for a competitive game, not a blowout.
The Play: Spurs +8.5 (-110) | 3 Units
Confidence Level: High. I’ve seen this movie before—the market overvalues the home favorite with the big-name star, and the underdog with elite talent keeps it close or steals it outright. San Antonio’s not scared of Ball Arena, and they’re not backing down from Jokic. Take the points and cash the ticket. That’s a trap, and I’m taking the points all day long.
