The public sees a blowout; the sharps see value. Bryan Bash dissects the Spurs vs. Pelicans matchup to show why the market is disrespecting New Orleans’ ability to score at home. Find out why the smart money is grabbing the points and fading the popular road favorite.
The Setup: Spurs at Pelicans
The Spurs are laying 10 points in New Orleans, and the books are practically begging you to hammer San Antonio. But here’s the thing – when a 15-7 team travels to face a 3-21 squad and the spread sits at double digits, that’s exactly the spot where casual bettors get torched. The market’s telling us the Pelicans are dead money at 3-21, sitting dead last in the Western Conference at 15th. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s sitting pretty at 5th in the West with Victor Wembanyama dropping 26.2 points and 12.9 boards per game. The public’s all over the Spurs here, which means we need to dig deeper into what’s actually happening on the court. New Orleans is 2-11 at home, and with Zion Williamson, Jordan Poole, and potentially Herbert Jones all on the injury report, this looks like a layup for San Antonio. But I’ve seen this movie before – the worst teams in the league don’t just roll over when the spread gets this fat. The Smoothie King Center has been a house of horrors for the Pelicans faithful, but double-digit spreads in the NBA are never as easy as they look on paper.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 8, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
Spread: Spurs -10.0 (-110) / Pelicans +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Spurs -480 / Pelicans +343
Total: Over/Under 236.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it – at least not completely. That -480 moneyline on the Spurs tells you everything about how lopsided this matchup appears on the surface. The books have set this total at 236.5, which suggests they’re expecting a relatively high-scoring affair despite New Orleans being absolutely decimated by injuries. Here’s what the oddsmakers are banking on: the public sees a 15-7 team with two legitimate stars in Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox going up against a Pelicans squad that’s won just three games all season. That’s an easy sell for the casual bettor who just wants to lay the points and move on with their day.
But sharp money knows what’s up here – that 10-point number is designed to create two-way action. The Spurs are 6-5 on the road this season, which isn’t exactly world-beating. They just got torched by Cleveland 130-117, and now they’re walking into a road spot against a desperate team with nothing to lose. The Pelicans are 2-11 at home, sure, but that +10 is a massive cushion for a team that can still put points on the board when healthy bodies are available. Trey Murphy III is averaging 20.5 points and 6.5 boards, giving them at least one legitimate scoring threat. The market’s disrespecting New Orleans here to the point where the value might actually be on the home dog, as ugly as that sounds on paper.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
San Antonio’s got the firepower to blow this game wide open, no question. Wembanyama is putting up video game numbers at 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. The addition of De’Aaron Fox has been massive, giving them a legitimate second scoring option at 25.0 points and 6.5 assists per contest. Stephon Castle adds another dimension at 17.3 points and 7.5 assists, though his status is questionable with a hip injury. That’s three guys who can get you 20-plus on any given night, and Wembanyama’s defensive presence alone changes the entire complexion of games.
The concern? That 6-5 road record tells me this team isn’t invincible away from home. They just got worked by Cleveland, allowing 130 points in a game where they never really had control. Jordan McLaughlin is out with a hamstring injury, and Luke Kornet is day-to-day with an ankle issue. If Castle can’t go, that’s a significant chunk of their playmaking and secondary scoring off the board. The Spurs are talented enough to win this game by 20, but they’re also capable of playing down to competition on the road, which is exactly what makes this 10-point spread so dangerous to blindly back.
Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
Let’s not sugarcoat it – New Orleans is a disaster right now. That 3-21 record isn’t a fluke; they’re legitimately one of the worst teams in basketball. Zion Williamson is out for at least three more weeks with an adductor injury, robbing them of their 22.1 points per game. Jordan Poole is definitely out with a quad injury, taking away another 17.3 points. Herbert Jones is questionable with a calf issue, and if he can’t go, their defensive identity takes another massive hit.
But here’s the thing – Trey Murphy III is still balling at 20.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. That’s a legitimate NBA scorer who can get hot and keep games competitive, especially at home where crowd energy can provide a spark. The Pelicans are 2-11 at the Smoothie King Center, but those two wins prove they’re capable of showing up occasionally. This is exactly the spot where a desperate team plays with house money. They’ve got nothing to lose, no playoff aspirations to protect, and every reason to come out firing against a Spurs team that might be looking ahead or taking them lightly. The public’s writing them off completely, which is precisely when NBA underdogs tend to cover these massive spreads.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can the Pelicans score enough to stay within 10 points, or will the Spurs’ talent advantage be too overwhelming? Wembanyama is the X-factor on both ends. His 12.9 rebounds per game give San Antonio a massive edge on the glass, and his defensive presence can completely neutralize Murphy’s scoring ability. Fox’s 25.0 points and 6.5 assists give them a secondary creator who can attack a depleted Pelicans defense that has no rim protection with Zion out.
The pace of this game matters significantly. If San Antonio pushes tempo and turns this into a track meet, the Pelicans simply don’t have the depth to keep up for 48 minutes. But if New Orleans can slow this down, grind possessions, and turn it into a half-court game, that 10-point spread becomes much more manageable. Murphy needs to get going early to give the home crowd something to cheer about and keep his teammates engaged. The Spurs’ road struggles this season suggest they’re vulnerable to motivated opponents, and New Orleans has every reason to play inspired basketball in front of their home fans.
The total of 236.5 suggests the books expect both teams to score, which makes sense given the Pelicans’ defensive limitations without Zion and potentially without Jones. But can New Orleans actually get there offensively with Poole definitely out? That’s the million-dollar question. The Spurs have the offensive firepower to hit 120-plus, but they’ll need the Pelicans to cooperate and actually show up offensively to push this total over.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering this number before it moves – but not the way you’d expect. Give me the Pelicans +10.0 at home, and I’m putting 2 units on it. This is exactly the spot where the Spurs burn you. Yes, they’re the better team by a mile. Yes, they should win this game. But 10 points is a massive number in the NBA, especially for a road favorite that’s just 6-5 away from home this season. The Pelicans are desperate, playing at home, and getting double digits against a Spurs team that might be looking past them.
Murphy gives them enough offensive punch to stay competitive, and the Smoothie King Center crowd will be fired up for one of the few winnable games on their schedule. San Antonio’s talented enough to win by 15, but they’re also capable of sleepwalking through the first half and letting New Orleans hang around. That’s all we need – keep it within single digits at halftime, and this spread takes care of itself down the stretch. The public’s all over the Spurs, which tells me the value is on the home dog. Take the points and don’t look back. This line’s a joke, and I’m cashing on the other side.
