If you’re blindly laying 7.5 points with a road favorite just because they’re on a heater, you’re asking for a bad night at the window. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Raptors are the sharp ATS pick here, as the efficiency math suggests the books have inflated this line by nearly three full buckets.
The Setup: Spurs at Raptors
The Spurs are laying 7.5 points in Toronto on Wednesday night, and at first glance, that number looks steep for a road favorite. But once you run the efficiency math, this line doesn’t add up the way the market thinks it does. San Antonio rolls into Scotiabank Arena riding a nine-game win streak with Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell clicking on all cylinders. My model projects this game at Spurs by 0.4 points, which means the Raptors are getting 7.1 points of cushion beyond what the efficiency gap suggests. That’s a strong edge toward Toronto plus the points, and the possessions math tells a different story than what this spread implies.
The Raptors just got worked by Oklahoma City on Tuesday night in a game that exposed some defensive cracks, but they’re catching a Spurs team playing their second road game in three nights. Toronto’s 16-14 at home this season—not dominant, but competitive enough to hang around in a pace environment that actually favors their style. The efficiency gap is real, but 7.5 points is asking San Antonio to dominate in a spot where the rotations and tempo create natural compression. I’m taking the points all day long.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 25, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
TV: TSN (Home), FanDuel SN SW, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Spurs -7.5 (-110) | Raptors +7.5 (-110)
- Total: 229.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
- Moneyline: Spurs -303 | Raptors +238
Why This Line Exists
The market’s pricing in San Antonio’s +6.7 net rating against Toronto’s +1.9, which creates a season-long efficiency differential of -4.8 per 100 possessions in the Spurs’ favor. That’s a medium-sized gap, and it’s the foundation of why this spread sits at 7.5. Add in the fact that San Antonio just dismantled Detroit on Monday night—Wemby with 21 points, 17 boards, and six blocks—and you’ve got a team that looks like they’re peaking at the right time. The Spurs are 41-16 overall and 19-10 on the road, so the market respects their ability to win away from home.
But here’s where the line gets interesting: the pace blend projects at 100.2 possessions, which is elevated for both teams but especially for Toronto, who plays at 99.3 pace naturally. San Antonio runs at 101.0, so this game should move, but not at a breakneck speed that amplifies the talent gap. The projection lands at 227.0 total points, which is 2.5 points below the market’s 229.5 number. That medium edge toward the under makes sense when you consider Toronto’s 111.8 defensive rating isn’t elite, but it’s competent enough to slow down possessions in stretches. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—the Spurs are better, but the pace and structure keep this tighter than the spread suggests.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
San Antonio’s offense is a 117.2 offensive rating machine, and it’s built around Wembanyama’s versatility and the scoring depth from Devin Vassell, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle. Wemby’s averaging 24.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game this season, and he’s shooting 50.8% from the field and 35.8% from three. That’s a nightmare matchup for Toronto’s frontcourt, especially if Jakob Poeltl is questionable and Scottie Barnes is dealing with a knee issue. Vassell dropped 28 points in Detroit, and Fox continues to facilitate at 6.3 assists per game while adding secondary scoring punch.
The Spurs’ 58.9% true shooting and 55.1% effective field goal percentage rank among the league’s best, and their 110.5 defensive rating gives them the ability to win games on both ends. They’re 19-10 in clutch situations this season, which tells you they don’t fold under pressure. But here’s the catch: they’re playing their second game in three nights on the road, and while they don’t have major injury concerns beyond Mason Plumlee ramping up, the travel and scheduling spot could create just enough fatigue to keep this game within a possession or two late.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s been inconsistent at home this season, sitting at 16-14 at Scotiabank Arena, but they’ve got enough offensive firepower to hang around in a game like this. Brandon Ingram leads the way at 21.9 points per game on 47.2% shooting, and his ability to create in isolation gives the Raptors a pressure valve when the offense stalls. Scottie Barnes is averaging 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, and RJ Barrett chips in 18.1 points per night. Immanuel Quickley’s 37.9% three-point shooting and 6.0 assists per game keep the ball moving, and the Raptors’ 69.5% assist rate is one of the league’s highest.
The concern is defense. Toronto’s 111.8 defensive rating ranks middle-of-the-pack, and they just gave up 116 points to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night in a game where Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe combined for 49 points. The Raptors are also dealing with potential absences—Scottie Barnes is questionable with a knee issue after appearing to favor it late in Tuesday’s loss, and Jakob Poeltl is probable but was held out Tuesday for injury management on the front end of this back-to-back. If Barnes is limited or Poeltl sits, the Raptors lose rim protection and defensive versatility, which plays right into San Antonio’s hands. Still, Toronto’s 19-10 clutch record matches the Spurs, so they’ve shown they can finish games when it matters.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the offensive efficiency mismatch, and the numbers favor San Antonio in a meaningful way. The Spurs’ offense against Toronto’s defense projects at +5.4 per 100 possessions, which is a medium-sized advantage that should allow San Antonio to score efficiently throughout. On the flip side, Toronto’s offense against San Antonio’s defense projects at +3.2 per 100 possessions, which means the Raptors can generate decent looks, but they’ll have to work harder for them. Over 100.2 projected possessions, that differential adds up to roughly 2.2 points of separation in favor of the Spurs—not the 7.5 points the market is asking them to cover.
The pace blend changes everything in this matchup. At 100.2 possessions, this game moves fast enough to create variance, but not so fast that the Spurs can blow the doors off. Toronto’s 113.7 offensive rating isn’t elite, but it’s functional, and their 57.2% true shooting keeps them within striking distance if they hit open threes. The Raptors’ 34.6% three-point shooting and 29.3 assists per game suggest they’ll generate quality looks, especially in transition. The Spurs’ 1.7 percentage point true shooting edge is small enough to be within noise, which means shooting efficiency alone won’t determine this outcome—it’s about how many possessions each team can control and convert.
The key factor is whether Toronto can force San Antonio into half-court grind possessions late. If Barnes plays and Poeltl suits up, the Raptors have the defensive personnel to make Wembanyama work for his looks. If either sits, the Spurs’ size and skill advantage becomes overwhelming. But even in the best-case scenario for San Antonio, the math suggests a 0.4-point margin, not a blowout.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The projection says this game should be a coin flip, and the market’s giving us 7.5 points of cushion with Toronto. That’s exactly the spot where the Spurs burn you—not by losing outright, but by winning a tight game that stays within a possession or two. San Antonio’s the better team, no question, but they’re on the road, playing their second game in three nights, and facing a Raptors squad that’s scrappy enough at home to keep this competitive. The 7.1-point edge toward Toronto plus the points is too wide to ignore here, and I’ve seen this movie before with road favorites laying big numbers in pace-neutral environments.
The total also leans under at 227.0 projected versus 229.5, but the spread is the cleaner play. The Raptors’ ball movement and Ingram’s ability to create in isolation give them enough offensive juice to stay within the number, even if they don’t win outright. The main risk is Barnes or Poeltl sitting, which would tilt the defensive matchup heavily toward San Antonio, but even then, 7.5 points is a lot to ask in a game that projects this tight.
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors +7.5 for 2 units.
this number points to value on the home dog, and the possessions math backs it up. Take the points and let the Spurs prove they can cover a big road number against a team that’s got enough talent to keep it close.
