The betting market’s decision to set the line at a virtual pick’em (Trail Blazers -1.0) is the clearest sign of overreliance on home-court advantage and recency bias (Portland’s win over Milwaukee). This line drastically disrespects the Spurs′ sustained excellence, who sit at 11-5 and 5th in the West. With Victor Wembanyama averaging an absurd 26.2 PPG and 12.9 RPG and the Blazers facing significant backcourt injuries, getting the better team at essentially a plus-money price is the sharpest situational value available.
The Setup: Spurs at Trail Blazers
The books have Portland as a 1-point home favorite against San Antonio on Wednesday night at the Moda Center, and I’m seeing a market that’s completely disrespecting what the Spurs have built this season. We’re talking about an 11-5 San Antonio squad that’s been one of the league’s biggest surprises, led by Victor Wembanyama putting up an absurd 26.2 PPG and 12.9 RPG, going up against an 8-10 Portland team that’s barely treading water at home with a 3-4 record. The Trail Blazers are catching the Spurs in a road spot where they’re 3-3, sure, but this number feels like Vegas is begging you to take the home team just because they’re playing in front of their crowd. Sharp money knows what’s up here – when you’ve got a team like San Antonio sitting fifth in the Western Conference going up against a ninth-place squad, and the line is essentially a pick’em, that’s the market screaming value on the better team.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 26, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
San Antonio Spurs: 11-5 (3-3 Road)
Portland Trail Blazers: 8-10 (3-4 Home)
Current Odds (Bovada):
- Spread: Trail Blazers -1.0 (-110) / Spurs +1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Trail Blazers -115 / Spurs -105
- Total: 239.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are setting this trap based purely on home court, and they’re banking on casual bettors seeing Portland’s recent win over Milwaukee where Jerami Grant dropped 35 points and thinking the Blazers have found something. Here’s the reality: Portland is 3-4 at the Moda Center this season, while San Antonio comes in with a legitimate championship-caliber piece in Wembanyama and a supporting cast that includes De’Aaron Fox averaging 23.5 PPG and Stephon Castle contributing 17.3 PPG with 7.5 APG. The market’s giving you essentially a pick’em when there’s a clear talent and record disparity.
What Vegas is counting on is recency bias. Portland just handed Milwaukee their fifth straight loss, and the public’s going to remember that performance. But I’ve seen this movie before – one big road win doesn’t erase an 8-10 record and a home court that’s been anything but an advantage this season. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s 11-5 mark isn’t a fluke. They’ve got three legitimate scoring threats all averaging between 17-26 points per game, and Wembanyama is establishing himself as a legitimate MVP candidate in his sophomore campaign.
The injury situation tilts slightly in San Antonio’s favor too. Portland’s dealing with Shaedon Sharpe questionable with a calf issue – that’s their 22.6 PPG scorer who might not even suit up. They’re already without Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday for extended periods. San Antonio’s only missing Jordan McLaughlin, who’s a role player, while Dylan Harper’s questionable status doesn’t impact their core rotation. This is exactly the spot where Portland burns you – coming off an emotional road win, facing a rested and hungry Spurs team that’s proving they’re legitimate contenders.
Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what makes this San Antonio team dangerous. Victor Wembanyama isn’t just putting up numbers – he’s dominating on both ends with 26.2 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. That’s franchise player production, and he’s got the supporting cast to maximize his impact. De’Aaron Fox gives them a legitimate secondary scorer at 23.5 PPG, and Stephon Castle is facilitating at an elite level with 7.5 assists per game while chipping in 17.3 points.
The Spurs’ 11-5 record tells you everything about their consistency. They’re 8-2 at home, which shows they take care of business in favorable spots, and while they’re 3-3 on the road, that’s still a respectable split for a young team finding its identity. They’re coming off a loss to Phoenix where they saw their three-game winning streak snapped, which means they’ll be motivated to bounce back against a Portland team they should handle.
San Antonio’s biggest advantage is their three-headed scoring attack. When you’ve got three guys who can all go for 20-plus on any given night, it makes you incredibly difficult to game plan against. Portland doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow down all three, especially if they’re without Sharpe’s perimeter defense.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s riding high after that Milwaukee win, but let’s pump the brakes on the hype train. The Blazers are 8-10 for a reason, and their 3-4 home record tells you the Moda Center hasn’t been any kind of fortress this season. Deni Avdija has been their most consistent player at 24.9 PPG, and Jerami Grant just showed he can explode for 35, but consistency has been their issue all season long.
The injury situation is concerning. Shaedon Sharpe’s questionable status is huge – he’s their second-leading scorer at 22.6 PPG, and if he can’t go or is limited, that’s a massive chunk of their offensive firepower gone. They’re already playing without Scoot Henderson for 2-4 weeks and Jrue Holiday for 1-2 weeks, which decimates their backcourt depth and defensive versatility.
Here’s what worries me about backing Portland: they’ve won just twice in their last seven games before the Milwaukee victory. That’s a team that’s been struggling to find any rhythm, and one road win against a Bucks team that’s lost five straight doesn’t suddenly make them world-beaters. Grant’s 35-point explosion was great, but he’s averaging 19.5 PPG on the season – that was an outlier performance, not the norm.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the boards, where Wembanyama’s 12.9 rebounds per game should give San Antonio a massive advantage. Portland doesn’t have anyone who can match his combination of size, length, and athleticism. When the Spurs can control the glass and get second-chance opportunities, they’re lethal.
The other key factor is scoring balance. San Antonio brings three guys averaging 17-plus points, while Portland is heavily reliant on Avdija and a potentially compromised Sharpe. If Portland’s second option is limited or out entirely, the Blazers are asking Avdija and Grant to carry too much of the offensive load against a team with multiple defensive matchup options.
Portland’s home court advantage isn’t the factor it should be based on their 3-4 record at the Moda Center. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s shown they can win on the road with their 3-3 split, and this is a favorable matchup against a team they’re simply better than on paper. The Spurs’ ability to score from multiple positions makes them incredibly difficult to defend, especially for a Portland team that’s dealing with significant backcourt injuries.
The total sitting at 239.5 suggests the books expect a high-scoring affair, which makes sense given both teams have capable offensive players. But I’m more interested in the side here, where the value is screaming Spurs.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: San Antonio Spurs +1.0 (-110) – 2 Units
I’m hammering this number before it moves. The market’s disrespecting San Antonio here, plain and simple. You’re getting an 11-5 team that’s fifth in the Western Conference as an underdog against an 8-10 squad that’s ninth and struggling at home. Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level, Fox and Castle provide elite complementary scoring, and Portland’s dealing with injury issues that could sideline their second-leading scorer.
This line exists because Vegas knows casual bettors will see Portland at home coming off a big win and bite. But sharp money knows what’s up here – San Antonio’s the better team with the better record, and getting them at plus-money or even as a small dog is a gift. The Spurs should win this game straight up, which makes taking the point an absolute steal.
Portland’s home court hasn’t been an advantage all season, and one emotional road win over a reeling Milwaukee team doesn’t change the fact that the Blazers are a below-.500 squad for a reason. San Antonio’s got the star power, the depth, and the motivation coming off a loss. This is exactly the spot where the Spurs remind everyone they’re legitimate contenders and Portland comes crashing back to earth. Lock in the Spurs, cash the ticket, and don’t overthink it.
