The red-hot San Antonio Spurs travel to Chase Center on Wednesday night, and our expert prediction focuses on whether Victor Wembanyama can dominate a depleted Golden State frontcourt.
San Antonio brings a five-game win streak and Victor Wembanyama’s nuclear scoring into Chase Center on Wednesday night, laying 6.5 against a Warriors team that just lost Stephen Curry to injury. The Spurs are 37-16 and rolling, the Warriors are 29-25 and suddenly without their engine. This line opened at 6.5 and hasn’t budged—the market knows exactly what it’s pricing.
Wembanyama just dropped 40 points on the Lakers with 37 coming in the first half alone. De’Aaron Fox is averaging 19.3 points and 6.2 assists since joining the Spurs. Golden State rallied to beat Memphis on Monday, but that was with Curry still available. Now they’re facing a top-three Western Conference team without their 27.2 points per game centerpiece. The number tells you the market respects Golden State’s home floor—18-9 at Chase Center—but it also tells you the Spurs are the significantly better team right now.
Game Info & Betting Lines
San Antonio Spurs (37-16) at Golden State Warriors (29-25)
When: February 11, 2026, 10:00 ET
Where: Chase Center
Watch: ESPN
Current Spread: Spurs -6.5 (-110) | Warriors +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Spurs -250 | Warriors +198
Total: 219.0 (Over/Under -110)
Odds via Bovada
Why This Line Exists
The Spurs average 118.0 points per game compared to Golden State’s 115.6—a 2.4-point scoring edge that aligns almost perfectly with this 6.5-point spread once you factor in home court. San Antonio also holds a plus-5.8 point differential on the season against Golden State’s plus-2.1. The Warriors shoot 36.2 percent from three compared to San Antonio’s 34.9 percent, but the Spurs hold edges in field goal percentage (47.7 to 46.1), rebounding (46.6 to 42.6), and turnovers (13.8 to 15.7). Golden State commits nearly two more turnovers per game, and that matters when you’re trying to hang with a team that’s won five straight.
The line respects Chase Center. Golden State is 18-9 at home, and even without Curry, they’ve got Jimmy Butler averaging 20.0 points and 4.9 assists, Kristaps Porzingis at 17.1 points and 5.1 rebounds, and enough depth to stay competitive. But the Spurs are 17-10 on the road, and they’re not a team that folds in hostile environments. Six and a half points is the market saying Golden State can keep this close with home energy and secondary scoring, but San Antonio is the better team with or without Curry in the building.
San Antonio Spurs Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Wembanyama is the story. He’s averaging 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor and 37.0 percent from three. He just torched the Lakers for 40 points with 37 in the first half—the highest-scoring half in the NBA this season. When he’s in that mode, there’s no scheme that slows him down. De’Aaron Fox gives the Spurs a legitimate secondary creator at 19.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, and Stephon Castle adds 16.7 points and 7.0 assists when healthy. Castle is questionable after hitting the floor hard blocking a dunk attempt, which could shift minutes to Harrison Barnes or Dylan Harper, but the Spurs have enough weapons to absorb his absence if necessary.
San Antonio’s rebounding edge is significant—46.6 boards per game compared to Golden State’s 42.6, including 11.3 offensive rebounds per game. That’s extra possessions against a Warriors team that’s already giving the ball away 15.7 times per game. The Spurs don’t beat themselves—13.8 turnovers per game is disciplined basketball, and their plus-5.8 point differential reflects a team that controls tempo and executes in the half court.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Curry is out, and that’s the headline. He’s been their 27.2 points and 4.8 assists per game, and without him, the offensive burden shifts entirely to Butler and Porzingis. Butler is efficient at 51.9 percent shooting and 20.0 points per game, but he’s not a volume scorer in the same way Curry is. Porzingis gives them 17.1 points and 5.1 rebounds, but he’s a complementary piece, not a primary engine. Brandin Podziemski at 11.9 points and 3.6 assists will see more ball-handling responsibility, but he’s not replacing Curry’s gravity or shot creation.
Golden State does generate defensive activity—10.0 steals per game leads the league in that category, and they’re disruptive in passing lanes. But they also turn the ball over 15.7 times per game, nearly two more than San Antonio, and that’s a problem when you’re trying to maximize possessions without your best player. The Warriors assist the ball well at 28.7 per game, but that’s a system number built around Curry’s movement. Without him, the ball sticks more, and the Spurs can load up on Butler and Porzingis without worrying about weak-side threes.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to whether Golden State can generate enough offense without Curry to stay within a possession or two late. The Spurs average 2.4 more points per game, rebound the ball at a 4.0 board advantage, and commit 1.9 fewer turnovers. Over 95 possessions—a reasonable estimate for a game involving these two teams—that rebounding edge translates to three or four extra chances, and the turnover gap means San Antonio gets cleaner looks in transition and half-court sets.
Wembanyama is the best player on the floor by a significant margin. He’s averaging 24.4 points and 11.1 rebounds, and he just went for 40 against a Lakers team that had no answer. Golden State doesn’t have a rim protector who can challenge him—Porzingis at 1.3 blocks per game is solid, but he’s not switching onto Wemby in space or contesting his pull-up threes. If Castle sits, the Spurs lose some playmaking, but Fox and Devin Vassell (14.3 points, 3.9 rebounds) can absorb those minutes without a significant drop-off.
Golden State’s best path is forcing turnovers and running. They average 10.0 steals per game, and if they can turn San Antonio over and get out in transition, they can generate efficient looks before the Spurs set their defense. But San Antonio only turns it over 13.8 times per game, and they’re disciplined enough to limit those opportunities. The Warriors also need Butler and Porzingis to combine for 45-plus points, and that’s asking a lot against a Spurs defense that’s allowing just 112.2 points per game based on their plus-5.8 differential.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Spurs are the better team, they’re healthier, and they’ve got the best player on the floor. Golden State is tough at home, but 18-9 at Chase Center doesn’t mean much when you’re missing your best player and facing a team that’s won five straight. San Antonio is 17-10 on the road, and they’ve shown they can win in hostile environments. Wembanyama just dropped 40 on the Lakers, Fox is settled into his role, and the Spurs control the glass and protect the ball better than Golden State does.
Six and a half points feels like the market giving Golden State credit for home court and competitive depth, but the gap in talent and health is wider than that. The Spurs should win this game by double digits if Wembanyama plays anywhere near his recent level, and even if it’s close late, San Antonio has the discipline and firepower to cover. The risk is Golden State shooting lights out from three and stealing possessions with their defensive activity, but over a full game, the Spurs are the sharper, more complete team.
BASH’S BEST BET: Spurs -6.5 for 2 units.
