Minnesota heads into Memphis as 8-point favorites, but the questionable status of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle has the market on edge. Bash breaks down the efficiency metrics to provide an expert prediction for the Monday night rematch.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Grizzlies
Minnesota laying 8 points in Memphis on Monday night looks straightforward until you factor in the context. The Timberwolves just dismantled this same Grizzlies squad 131-114 on Saturday, with Anthony Edwards dropping 33 and Julius Randle adding 27. Now they’re right back at FedExForum 48 hours later, except both Edwards and Randle are listed as questionable. Edwards is dealing with recurring back spasms, while Randle apparently injured his left thumb in Saturday’s wire-to-wire win. Memphis sits at 18-29 and 9-15 at home, but this number assumes Minnesota shows up at full strength. If the Wolves are without their two best players against a team they just embarrassed, this spread becomes a completely different animal.
The market opened Minnesota at 8, which tells you the oddsmakers are banking on Edwards and Randle suiting up. That’s the baseline assumption baked into this price. But the injury report creates legitimate uncertainty about whether the Timberwolves can replicate Saturday’s dominance or if we’re looking at a motivated Memphis team getting a second crack with Minnesota compromised.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Minnesota Timberwolves (31-19) at Memphis Grizzlies (18-29)
When: Monday, February 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Where: FedExForum
Watch: Peacock
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -8.0 (-110) | Grizzlies +8.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -323 | Grizzlies +246
- Total: 228.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Eight points reflects the talent gap between a 31-19 Western Conference playoff team and an 18-29 squad that’s been inconsistent all season. Minnesota’s 14-11 road record isn’t elite, but it’s competent. Memphis at 9-15 at home has struggled to defend their building. The Grizzlies are missing Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke in the frontcourt, which gutted their interior presence Saturday when Minnesota scored 131. That’s the foundation for why this spread exists at this number.
The total at 228 anticipates another high-possession game. Saturday’s 131-114 result landed at 245 total points, well over this closing number. But totals tend to regress after blowouts, and the market is accounting for potential revenge-game intensity from Memphis defensively. The Grizzlies got embarrassed on national television in their own building. Teams typically tighten up defensively in immediate rematches, especially at home. The number dropped from what we saw Saturday, but 228 still expects scoring.
What the line doesn’t fully account for is Minnesota’s injury uncertainty. If Edwards and Randle both sit, this becomes a fundamentally different matchup. The Wolves averaged 52 combined points from those two on Saturday. You can’t just redistribute that production and expect the same result. The market is pricing Minnesota at full strength, which creates either massive value on the Wolves if they play, or massive value on Memphis if they don’t.
Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Anthony Edwards is averaging 29.4 points per game this season, establishing himself as Minnesota’s primary offensive engine. Julius Randle chips in 22.3 points and 5.4 assists, giving the Wolves a legitimate second creator. Jaden McDaniels adds 14.9 points as a tertiary option. When all three are healthy, Minnesota has the firepower to overwhelm mediocre defenses like Memphis.
Saturday’s performance illustrated Minnesota’s ceiling. Edwards scored efficiently, Randle controlled the paint, and the Wolves dominated from wire to wire. That’s what happens when their top-end talent executes against inferior competition. But the back spasms for Edwards are concerning because they’ve been recurring since the start of the 2025-26 campaign. This isn’t a new issue. Randle’s thumb injury is fresher, sustained during Saturday’s game, and potentially more limiting for a player who needs to handle the ball and finish through contact.
If both sit, Minnesota’s depth gets tested immediately. The Wolves would lean heavily on McDaniels and role players in a hostile environment against a team looking for payback. That’s not an ideal scenario for covering 8 points on the road, regardless of Memphis’s record. The 31-19 record is built on Edwards and Randle being available. Without them, this becomes a completely different team.
Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is limping through the season at 18-29, sitting 12th in the Western Conference. Ty Jerome leads the team at 20.0 points per game, with Ja Morant contributing 19.5 points and 8.1 assists. Jaren Jackson Jr. adds 19.0 points and 5.8 rebounds. That’s a balanced scoring attack on paper, but the results haven’t followed. The 9-15 home record exposes their inability to defend their building consistently.
Saturday’s 131-114 loss was ugly. Minnesota controlled tempo, attacked the paint relentlessly, and the Grizzlies had no answer defensively. The absence of Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke in the frontcourt leaves Memphis vulnerable inside. Without rim protection, teams can attack downhill and finish at the basket without resistance. That’s exactly what Edwards and Randle did Saturday, and it’s what they’ll do again Monday if healthy.
The revenge-game narrative matters here. Memphis gets another crack at Minnesota 48 hours later in their own building. Teams typically respond better in immediate rematches, especially after getting blown out. The Grizzlies know what’s coming. They’ll game-plan specifically for Edwards and Randle, load up defensively, and try to force role players to beat them. If Minnesota is compromised by injuries, that defensive strategy becomes significantly more viable.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game hinges entirely on Minnesota’s injury report. If Edwards and Randle both play, the Wolves should replicate Saturday’s dominance. Memphis doesn’t have the personnel to slow down two elite offensive players simultaneously, especially without interior rim protection. Minnesota would control pace, attack the paint, and put up points in transition. The 8-point spread becomes manageable because the talent gap is real.
But if one or both sit, the entire complexion changes. Memphis suddenly has a path to keeping this competitive. The Grizzlies can load up defensively on Minnesota’s remaining threats, force role players into uncomfortable offensive situations, and use home-court energy to fuel a more competitive effort. Eight points is a significant cushion, but not insurmountable if the Timberwolves are missing 50+ combined points from their top two scorers.
The total at 228 assumes both teams score efficiently, but Memphis’s defensive intensity in a revenge spot could suppress that number. If the Grizzlies tighten up defensively and slow the pace, we’re looking at a grinder rather than the track meet we saw Saturday. The under becomes viable if Memphis controls tempo and turns this into a halfcourt battle. But if Minnesota’s stars play and push pace like Saturday, the over is in play again.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
This line is entirely dependent on injury news, which makes it impossible to commit before lineups are confirmed. If Edwards and Randle both play, Minnesota -8 is the correct side. The Wolves just dismantled this team by 17, and nothing has changed structurally in 48 hours. Memphis still can’t protect the rim, and Minnesota still has superior talent. The Timberwolves would control this game from the opening tip.
But if either Edwards or Randle sits, the value flips to Memphis +8. A compromised Minnesota team laying 8 points on the road against a motivated revenge-spot opponent is asking for trouble. The Grizzlies would have the emotional edge, the home crowd, and a legitimate chance to keep this within the number.
The safest play is waiting for injury clarity, then attacking the side with the clearest edge. If forced to pick now, I’d lean Minnesota assuming health, but that’s a dangerous assumption given the questionable tags. The smart money waits for confirmation.
BASH’S BEST BET: Wait for injury news. If Edwards and Randle play, Timberwolves -8 for 2 units. If either sits, Grizzlies +8 for 2 units.
