The Setup: Timberwolves at Knicks
This line’s a joke. The Knicks are laying 5.5 points at Madison Square Garden against a Timberwolves squad that’s 3-1 on the road? The books are begging you to take New York here, and I’m not falling for it. Minnesota’s averaging 118.75 points per game away from home while the Knicks are putting up 117.75 at MSG. The market’s trying to sell you on home-court advantage, but the numbers tell a different story.
The Wolves just demolished Brooklyn 125-109 without Anthony Edwards, and Julius Randle dropped his first triple-double in Minnesota threads. Meanwhile, the Knicks beat up on a 1-6 Wizards team and suddenly everyone thinks they’re world-beaters. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the public darlings. The sharp money knows what’s up here – Minnesota’s getting disrespected at 4-3 with more offensive firepower than the stat sheet shows.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- Spread: Knicks -5.5 (some books showing -5.0)
- Total: 229.0 – 229.5
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +165 to +171 / Knicks -195 to -213
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Vegas wants you thinking the Knicks are unbeatable at home after starting 4-0 at Madison Square Garden. But here’s what they’re not telling you – New York is 0-3 on the road. That’s not dominance, that’s a team that only shows up in their comfort zone. The Knicks are averaging 116.29 points per game overall with a defensive rating of 113.57. Minnesota’s putting up 116.86 PPG while allowing 115.57. That’s a razor-thin difference that doesn’t justify giving away 5.5 points.
The total sitting at 229-229.5 is exactly where the books want to trap both sides. Look at the trends: the under has hit in 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams. New York’s home games have gone under in 4 of their last 6 at MSG. But here’s the kicker – Minnesota’s last 6 road games have gone over in 4 of them, and they just dropped 125 on Brooklyn without their best player.
The market’s trying to make you believe in New York’s home-court mystique while ignoring that Minnesota shoots 49.83% from the field and is grabbing 10.29 offensive rebounds per game. The Wolves are getting double-digit rebounds on the offensive glass, which means second-chance points and extended possessions. That 5.5-point spread is soft, and I’m not buying the narrative.
Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what Minnesota’s actually doing out here. Julius Randle is averaging 26 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists through seven games. The man just posted a triple-double (19-11-10) against Brooklyn without Anthony Edwards on the floor. That’s not a fluke – that’s a veteran baller who knows how to fill the stat sheet when his team needs him.
The Wolves are shooting 49.83% from the field as a team with a 74.73% mark from the charity stripe. They’re averaging 25.29 assists per game with a 1.72 assist-to-turnover ratio. Minnesota’s taking care of the basketball, moving it well, and creating high-percentage looks. Jaden McDaniels (18.6 PPG) and Donte DiVincenzo (15.1 PPG) are both scoring in double figures consistently, giving Randle legitimate help.
Here’s the real edge: Minnesota outrebounded Brooklyn 53-40 in their last game and are averaging 41.58 total rebounds per contest. They’re grabbing 10.29 offensive boards per game, which ranks in the top half of the league. Even if Edwards sits again with that hamstring issue, this team has proven they can score in bunches. They dropped 122 on Charlotte, 125 on Brooklyn, and they’re doing it with balanced offense and second-chance opportunities.
New York Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
Karl-Anthony Towns had a season-high 33 points and 13 rebounds against Washington, and suddenly the Knicks look like contenders. But let’s pump the brakes. Towns is averaging 20.4 PPG and 13.1 RPG through seven games with a field goal percentage of just 40.8%. For a player of his caliber, that’s rough. He shot 72.2% in one quarter against the Wizards and still ended up under 41% for the game overall.
Jalen Brunson is carrying the offensive load at 29 PPG, but he’s shooting 46.4% from the field and just 32.1% from three-point range. That’s not efficient scoring, and against Minnesota’s defensive length, he’s going to have to work for every bucket. OG Anunoby (17.1 PPG) and Mikal Bridges (16.4 PPG) provide secondary scoring, but the Knicks are averaging just 43.46% from the field as a team.
New York’s grabbing 14.43 offensive rebounds per game and shooting 84.71% from the free-throw line, which are both solid numbers. But their defensive efficiency at home isn’t as dominant as the 4-0 record suggests. They allowed 125 to Chicago and gave up 135 in their road loss to the same team. The defense shows up when it matters, but there are cracks in the foundation. The Knicks are 4-3 against the spread this season, meaning they’re barely covering when they win.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to rebounding, pace, and who can sustain their offensive efficiency. Minnesota’s averaging 10.29 offensive boards compared to New York’s 14.43, but the Wolves are more efficient from the field at 49.83% versus the Knicks’ 43.46%. That field goal percentage gap is massive – nearly 7 percentage points. In a game projected to feature 105-110 possessions, that efficiency matters.
The pace favors Minnesota. The Wolves are scoring 118.75 PPG on the road this season while the Knicks are putting up 117.75 at home. New York’s defense allows 106 PPG at Madison Square Garden, which is solid, but Minnesota’s road offense is built to attack in transition. The Wolves average 12.7 fastbreak points per game, and with New York committing 13 turnovers per contest, there will be opportunities to run.
Looking at the head-to-head history, these teams have split the last 10 meetings 5-5 straight up. The under has hit in 9 of the last 13 games between them, but four of the last six on the road have gone over for Minnesota. That tells me the Wolves can score when they travel, and this total might be set a touch high based on old data rather than current form.
The X-factor is Anthony Edwards. If he plays, Minnesota’s a different animal offensively. Even at 70-80%, Edwards commands defensive attention that opens up driving lanes for Randle and spot-up threes for DiVincenzo. If he sits, Randle’s proven he can carry the load as a point-forward, and Minnesota’s supporting cast is deep enough to hit 110+ points.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering Minnesota +5.5 before this line moves. The Wolves are 3-1 on the road, they’re shooting nearly 50% from the field as a team, and they just dropped 125 without their All-Star guard. The Knicks are getting too much credit for beating up on a Wizards team that’s 1-6 and has zero defensive identity. New York’s 0-3 away from MSG, which tells me they’re not as complete as the 4-0 home record suggests.
The market’s disrespecting Minnesota here, and that 7-point field goal percentage gap is going to show up in a close game. Randle’s playing like a man possessed, Jaden McDaniels is giving you 18+ per night, and the Wolves are grabbing offensive boards to extend possessions. The Knicks will keep it close because of home court, but I don’t see them covering 5.5 points against a road team that’s proven they can score with anyone.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves +5.5 (-110) – 2 UNITS
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup. Minnesota’s too efficient, too deep, and too hungry to roll over for the Knicks just because it’s Madison Square Garden. Load up on the points before the sharp money moves this to +4.5. This is exactly the spot where New York burns you if you chase the home favorite. Take the Wolves and cash that ticket.
