e 20-10 Timberwolves head to Denver for a Christmas night showdown against a Nuggets squad missing three key starters. Bryan Bash breaks down why the absences of Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cameron Johnson make the +3.5 spread a massive value for Minnesota.
The Setup: Timberwolves at Nuggets
Denver is laying 3.5 points at home against Minnesota on Christmas night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Nuggets are 21-8, sitting third in the conference with Nikola Jokic putting up a triple-double every other night. The Timberwolves are 20-10 and rolling after Anthony Edwards dropped 38 in their last outing. This looks like a classic Christmas showcase between two Western Conference contenders.
Here’s the thing — Denver’s home performance this season doesn’t support laying nearly four points against a legitimate playoff team. The Nuggets are just 9-5 at Ball Arena, while Minnesota has been the better road team at 8-5. When you factor in that Edwards is playing at an MVP-caliber level right now and the Timberwolves have the defensive personnel to make Jokic work for everything, this spread starts to feel stretched. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m fading the home favorite.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 25, 2025, 10:30 ET
Venue: Ball Arena
Spread: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-110) | Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 241.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Denver -160 | Minnesota +135
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Denver 3.5 points based on three factors: Jokic’s dominance, home court advantage, and Minnesota’s potential uncertainty with Jaden McDaniels listed as questionable. Jokic is averaging 28.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.9 assists — those are video game numbers that force oddsmakers to inflate any line where he’s playing. Jamal Murray adding 25.1 points and 6.9 assists gives Denver two legitimate offensive engines that can dictate pace and create high-percentage looks.
The Nuggets also get the presumed benefit of playing at altitude in their building, which historically wears down opponents late in games. That’s worth about 2-2.5 points in most markets. Add in the fact that Minnesota might be without McDaniels, who’s their most versatile defender, and you get to 3.5.
But here’s what the number doesn’t account for: Denver’s home splits are actually worse than their road performance this season. They’re 9-5 at Ball Arena but 12-3 on the road. That’s not a typo. The Nuggets have been a better team away from home, which completely flips the traditional home court narrative. Meanwhile, Minnesota has won 8 of 13 on the road, and Edwards is averaging 28.7 points per game with Julius Randle providing a legitimate second scoring option at 22.6 points and 7.2 rebounds. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests.
Minnesota Timberwolves Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Timberwolves are built around two things: Anthony Edwards’ offensive explosion and Rudy Gobert’s defensive anchor. Edwards is playing at a career-best level, and in their last game against New York, he showed exactly what he’s capable of with 38 points in a 115-104 win. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this team tilts when Edwards is aggressive and getting to his spots.
Randle has been the perfect complementary piece since arriving from New York, averaging 22.6 points while handling secondary creation duties. In that same Knicks game, he dropped 25 points with 17 coming in the fourth quarter, showing he can close games when Minnesota needs a bucket. That two-headed offensive attack gives the Timberwolves the firepower to hang with anyone in the league.
Defensively, Gobert pulled down 16 rebounds against his former teammate Karl-Anthony Towns and continues to be one of the league’s most impactful rim protectors. The concern is McDaniels’ status — he’s questionable with an oblique injury and provides crucial perimeter defense. But even if he sits, Minnesota has enough defensive versatility to make Denver work in the halfcourt. At 20-10, this is a legitimate contender, not a team that should be getting nearly four points against anyone.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: The Other Side
Jokic is the best player on the floor in this game, and that matters. His 28.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.9 assists make him virtually impossible to game plan against because he can beat you in every conceivable way. Murray’s resurgence to 25.1 points per game gives Denver a legitimate pick-and-roll threat that can punish switching defenses, and Aaron Gordon at 18.8 points and 5.9 rebounds provides the athletic finishing piece around the rim.
The problem is depth. Cameron Johnson is out with a knee injury and expected to miss “some time,” while Christian Braun remains sidelined with an ankle issue. That’s two rotation players unavailable, which matters in a game against a deep Minnesota roster. The Nuggets are also dealing with the reality that their home court hasn’t been the fortress it’s supposed to be — that 9-5 record at Ball Arena includes some head-scratching losses to inferior competition.
Denver just lost to Dallas 131-130 in a game where they couldn’t get stops down the stretch. That’s been a recurring theme this season: when teams can match their offensive firepower, the Nuggets don’t have enough defensive versatility to close games. Against a Timberwolves team with Edwards, Randle, and Gobert, that’s a real concern.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Minnesota can limit Denver’s offensive efficiency in the halfcourt and whether Edwards can match Jokic’s production on the other end. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap: Denver is elite offensively, but they’re not built to win rock fights anymore. They need to push pace and generate easy looks in transition, but Minnesota has Gobert camping in the paint to take away rim attempts.
Once you dig into the matchup data, the Timberwolves have the personnel to make this uncomfortable for Denver. Gobert can handle Jokic’s interior touches better than most centers in the league, forcing him into more perimeter actions. That’s not ideal for Denver because it slows their pace and makes them more reliant on Murray and Gordon creating in isolation.
On the other end, Minnesota can attack Denver’s perimeter defense, which has been inconsistent without Braun. Edwards can get to the rim at will against this group, and Randle has the size to punish smaller defenders in the post. The key is whether Minnesota can generate enough high-percentage looks to keep pace with Jokic’s orchestration.
The total is set at 241.0, which feels about right given both teams’ offensive firepower. But in a game where defensive intensity typically ticks up on a national stage, I’m more interested in the spread. When you do the math over 96-100 possessions, Minnesota has enough offensive weapons and defensive versatility to keep this within a single possession. That makes 3.5 points too many.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Denver’s 9-5 record at Ball Arena tells me this isn’t the dominant home environment that warrants laying nearly four points against a 20-10 team with two legitimate stars. Edwards is playing at an MVP level right now, Randle gives them a reliable second option, and Gobert provides the defensive anchor to make Jokic work for everything.
The main risk here is Jokic simply taking over and Denver winning by double digits because they’re the more cohesive offensive unit. That’s always possible when you’re fading the best player on the floor. But Minnesota has the defensive personnel to limit Denver’s efficiency, and even if McDaniels sits, they have enough depth to rotate fresh bodies at Jokic and Murray all night.
This number should be closer to 2 or 2.5, which means we’re getting value on the dog. Take the Timberwolves plus the points and expect a competitive game that comes down to the final possessions. Denver might win, but Minnesota covers.
