Portland heads to the desert fresh off a 54-point humiliation in Denver, yet the oddsmakers still have them laying points. Phoenix might be banged up, but they just proved their grit with a double-OT win, and Grayson Allen is playing like a man possessed in the absence of Devin Booker.
Portland’s laying 3.5 points on the road in Phoenix on Sunday night, and this line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. The Suns are catching points at home against a Blazers team that just got obliterated 157-103 in Denver—the worst defensive showing you’ll see all season. But Phoenix is missing both Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, and the projection has the Suns winning this game straight up by 4.1 points. The market’s disrespecting Phoenix here, even with the injury concerns, because the efficiency gap is too wide to ignore.
Portland’s defensive rating sits at 116.0—bottom-tier stuff—while Phoenix checks in at 112.8 despite playing without their top two scorers. The net rating edge favors the Suns by 4.1 points per 100 possessions, and when you blend the pace to 100.5 possessions, you’re looking at a game that should tilt Phoenix’s way by a full possession more than this spread suggests. The Blazers are 11-16 on the road. The Suns are 19-10 at home. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup, and I’m taking the points all day long.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Portland Trail Blazers (27-30) at Phoenix Suns (33-24)
Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
TV: Home: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Suns Live | Away: KUNP 16, BlazerVision, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
Spread: Phoenix Suns +3.5 (-105) | Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 223.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Phoenix Suns +135 | Portland Trail Blazers -160
Why This Line Exists
The market hung Portland as a road favorite because the Suns are down two starters and the Blazers have legitimate offensive firepower when healthy. Deni Avdija is averaging 25.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, and Jerami Grant adds another 18.4 per game. On paper, that’s enough to justify laying a short number against a banged-up Phoenix squad.
But here’s what the market missed: Phoenix’s defensive rating of 112.8 is nearly three and a half points better than Portland’s 116.0, and that gap doesn’t disappear just because Booker’s out with a hip strain. The Suns still have Grayson Allen, who dropped 27 points in Saturday’s double-overtime win over Orlando, and Collin Gillespie has been running the offense efficiently at 4.8 assists per game with a 41.7% mark from three. Phoenix’s offensive rating sits at 114.0 compared to Portland’s 113.1—basically in line with the market—but the defensive mismatch is where this spread falls apart.
The pace blend projects 100.5 possessions, which sits right between Portland’s 102.2 tempo and Phoenix’s 98.8. That’s enough possessions for the efficiency gap to manifest into actual points, and my model projects a final margin of 4.1 points in favor of the home team. Getting Phoenix at +3.5 means you’re getting a half-point of value on a team that should win outright, and that’s exactly the spot where the Blazers burn you.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Blazers just surrendered 157 points to Denver on Friday night—the most points the Nuggets have scored on the road in franchise history. Nikola Jokic had 32 points in under 30 minutes, and Denver led by 55 at one point in the second half. Portland’s defense was non-existent, and that 116.0 defensive rating isn’t a fluke—it’s a season-long pattern of getting torched in transition and giving up quality looks.
Shaedon Sharpe remains out, which removes 21.4 points per game from the rotation, and Deni Avdija is questionable with a lingering back issue that’s kept him out of all but three games this month. If Avdija sits, Portland loses their primary playmaker and their most efficient scorer. Jrue Holiday led the team with 19 points against Denver, but he’s averaging just 15.8 on the season, and Scoot Henderson’s 13.4 points per game isn’t enough to carry the offensive load on the road.
Portland’s clutch record sits at 16-16 with a -0.5 plus/minus in close games, which tells you they’re basically a coin flip when it matters. Their turnover rate of 14.5% is higher than Phoenix’s 12.9%, and that ball security gap becomes critical in a game projected for 100.5 possessions. The Blazers shoot 34.1% from three as a team—nothing special—and their offensive rebounding rate of 31.1% gives them second-chance opportunities, but not enough to overcome a three-and-a-half-point defensive gap.
Phoenix Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
Phoenix just survived a double-overtime thriller against Orlando, with Jalen Green hitting a buzzer-beating three from the corner to win 113-110. Green went 6-for-26 from the field, but he made the shot that mattered, and that’s the kind of grit this Suns team has shown all season. Grayson Allen returned from a four-game absence and immediately dropped 27 points, including all seven of Phoenix’s points in the first overtime. That’s the kind of performance that keeps you competitive even when your best player is out.
Devin Booker is out for at least another week with a right hip strain, and Dillon Brooks left Saturday’s game after just seven minutes and is now sidelined for the majority of the playoff push. That’s a combined 45.6 points per game missing from the rotation, but Phoenix’s offensive rating of 114.0 suggests they’ve adjusted. Collin Gillespie has stepped up as a facilitator, and Jalen Green’s 13.3 points per game gives them another scoring option in the backcourt.
The Suns’ defensive rating of 112.8 is the foundation here. They force turnovers at a 12.9% clip, and their ball movement—60.2% assist rate—keeps the offense flowing even without Booker’s isolation scoring. Phoenix is 19-10 at home, and their clutch record of 15-12 with a +0.6 plus/minus tells you they know how to close games. Jordan Goodwin is questionable after leaving Saturday’s game, but even if he sits, Ryan Dunn and Isaiah Livers can absorb minutes without cratering the rotation.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here. Phoenix’s net rating edge of 4.1 points per 100 possessions means that over 100.5 possessions, the Suns should outscore Portland by roughly four points—exactly what the projection shows. The offensive rebounding gap favors Portland by 2.1 percentage points, which gives the Blazers an extra possession or two per game, but that’s not enough to overcome the defensive mismatch.
Portland’s offense runs through Deni Avdija when he’s healthy, but if he’s out or limited, you’re asking Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant to carry the load against a Phoenix defense that’s been stingy all season. The Suns’ turnover edge of 1.6 percentage points means they’ll protect the ball better, and in a game with 100.5 possessions, that’s an extra possession or two that Portland won’t get. Phoenix’s home-court advantage is real—they’re 19-10 at Mortgage Matchup Center—and the Blazers are 11-16 on the road for a reason.
The possessions math tells a different story than the spread suggests. Portland’s defensive rating of 116.0 means they’re giving up 116 points per 100 possessions, and Phoenix’s offensive rating of 114.0 means they’re scoring 114 per 100. That’s a -2.0 mismatch in Phoenix’s favor when the Suns have the ball. When Portland has the ball, their 113.1 offensive rating against Phoenix’s 112.8 defensive rating is basically within noise—no real gap there. The game gets decided on Portland’s defensive possessions, and I’ve seen this movie before: the Blazers get exposed on the road, and the home team capitalizes.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The model projects Phoenix to win this game by 4.1 points, and the market is giving you the Suns at +3.5. That’s a 7.6-point edge against the spread, and this number points to value on the home dog. Portland’s defensive rating is bottom-tier, they’re missing Shaedon Sharpe, and Deni Avdija is questionable. Phoenix is missing Booker and Brooks, but their defensive rating and net rating edge tell you they’re still the better team in this spot.
The risk here is that Grayson Allen played heavy minutes in double overtime on Saturday and might be gassed, and if Jordan Goodwin sits, Phoenix’s backcourt depth gets tested. But even with those concerns, the efficiency gap is too wide to fade. Portland just gave up 157 points to Denver, and now they’re laying points on the road against a team that defends at a 112.8 clip. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup, and I’m taking the points all day long.
BASH’S BEST BET: Phoenix Suns +3.5 for 2 units.
