The market is hammering Golden State due to the Blazers’ injury report, but Portland is a resilient 10-10 ATS on the road and just finished a five-game heater. Shaedon Sharpe is poised for a massive usage spike, and if the Warriors continue to struggle with perimeter containment, this game will stay much closer than a field goal. See why the efficiency numbers suggest the best bet lies with the underdog points.
The Setup: Trail Blazers at Warriors
Golden State is laying 10.5 points at home against Portland on Tuesday night at Chase Center, and on the surface, this number makes sense. The Warriors are 13-6 at home, the Blazers are 9-11 on the road, and Golden State has Stephen Curry putting up 28.8 points per game alongside Jimmy Butler. Portland just had a five-game winning streak snapped by the Knicks, while the Warriors are coming off a disappointing 124-111 home loss to Atlanta where they couldn’t slow down Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Jalen Johnson.
Here’s the thing — when you dig into what Portland has been doing offensively with Deni Avdija leading the charge at 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, and you factor in that Golden State just gave up 124 points at home to a Hawks team that’s been inconsistent all season, this 10.5-point cushion starts to feel stretched. I’m not saying the Warriors shouldn’t be favored. I’m saying the margin might be wider than what this matchup actually produces over 48 minutes.
Let me walk you through why this line exists, and more importantly, why I think there’s value on the other side of it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Portland Trail Blazers (19-21) at Golden State Warriors (21-19)
Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Time: 11:00 PM ET
Venue: Chase Center
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -10.5 (-110) | Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -455 | Trail Blazers +337
- Total: Over/Under 224.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is giving Golden State a double-digit spread for three primary reasons: home court advantage at Chase Center where they’re 13-6 this season, the presence of Stephen Curry averaging nearly 29 points per game, and Portland’s mediocre 9-11 road record. The Warriors are also the higher seed at 8th in the conference compared to Portland’s 9th, and conventional wisdom says a team with Curry and Butler should be able to handle a Blazers squad that’s missing Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle, and Scoot Henderson.
But here’s what the line doesn’t fully account for: Portland’s offensive firepower with Deni Avdija having a breakout season, Shaedon Sharpe averaging 21.5 points per game, and the fact that this Blazers team just won five straight games before running into a focused Knicks squad. That’s not a fluke — that’s a team that’s figured out how to score efficiently even without Grant in the lineup.
The Warriors’ -455 moneyline tells you the market expects them to win this game. The 10.5-point spread tells you the market expects them to win comfortably. Once you dig into the matchup data, though, I keep coming back to Golden State’s defensive inconsistency. They just gave up 124 points at home to Atlanta, and that Hawks team isn’t dramatically different from what Portland brings offensively. The Blazers have multiple scoring threats, they move the ball well with Avdija facilitating, and they’ve shown they can hang around in games on the road with a 9-11 record that includes some competitive losses.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Trail Blazers are 19-21 overall and sitting 9th in the Western Conference, but this isn’t the same Portland team that was getting blown out earlier in the season. Deni Avdija has emerged as a legitimate three-level scorer and playmaker, averaging 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this offense functions. Avdija creates for others, he can score in isolation, and he gives Portland a legitimate closer in tight games.
Shaedon Sharpe at 21.5 points per game provides secondary scoring, and while Jerami Grant is doubtful with left Achilles tendonitis, the Blazers have adapted to his absence over 13 consecutive games. They wouldn’t have won five straight if they were falling apart without him. The concern here is depth — Matisse Thybulle is out indefinitely, Scoot Henderson remains out despite progressing in his rehab, and if this game turns into a track meet, Portland’s rotation gets tested.
But Portland’s 9-11 road record isn’t terrible for a team in their position. They’ve been competitive away from home, and with Avdija’s usage rate and Sharpe’s ability to get hot, they have the offensive weapons to keep pace with Golden State’s firepower.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State is 21-19 and 13-6 at Chase Center, which is where this line gets most of its juice. Stephen Curry averaging 28.8 points per game is still one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in basketball, and the addition of Jimmy Butler at 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists gives them a second legitimate closer. Jonathan Kuminga at 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds provides size and athleticism, though his consistency remains a question mark.
The problem I keep coming back to is Golden State’s defense. They just allowed 124 points at home to Atlanta, and it wasn’t just one guy beating them — Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 24, Jalen Johnson had 23 with 11 rebounds, and Luke Kennard went off for 22 off the bench. That’s a defense that got picked apart by multiple scoring threats, which is exactly what Portland brings with Avdija, Sharpe, and their supporting cast.
The Warriors are also 8-13 on the road, which tells you this is a team that relies heavily on home court. But relying on home court and covering 10.5 points are two different things. Seth Curry remains out, which doesn’t dramatically impact their rotation, but it does limit their perimeter depth slightly.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to whether Golden State’s offense can consistently separate from Portland’s, and whether the Warriors’ defense can get enough stops to build a double-digit lead and maintain it. Based on what we just saw against Atlanta — where Golden State gave up 124 points at home — I have serious doubts about their ability to lock down Avdija and Sharpe.
Portland’s offensive approach with Avdija facilitating creates the kind of ball movement that exploits Golden State’s defensive rotations. When you do that math over 95-100 possessions, you’re looking at a game where both teams are scoring efficiently, and the margin stays tighter than 10.5 points suggests. The Blazers aren’t going to blow Golden State out, but they don’t need to — they just need to stay within striking distance and cover this inflated number.
The main risk here is if Curry gets nuclear and drops 40-plus with efficient shooting, or if Butler takes over defensively and disrupts Portland’s offensive flow. But even accounting for those possibilities, I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Golden State should win this game, but asking them to win by 11 or more against a Portland team that just won five straight and has multiple offensive weapons feels like too much.
This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests because Portland has the offensive firepower to trade baskets, and Golden State’s defense hasn’t shown the consistency needed to pull away from competent offensive teams.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing Portland to cover the 10.5-point spread at Chase Center. The Warriors should win this game — I’m not arguing against that. But 10.5 points is a massive number to cover against a Blazers team that’s playing competitive basketball, has Deni Avdija averaging 26.1 points and facilitating the offense, and just won five consecutive games before losing to a legitimate Knicks squad.
Golden State’s defensive performance against Atlanta where they gave up 124 points at home is a massive red flag. Portland brings similar offensive versatility with multiple scoring threats, and the Blazers have shown they can hang around in road games with their 9-11 away record. When you factor in that this number requires Golden State to not just win but dominate, and you consider Portland’s ability to score with Avdija and Sharpe, this line feels at least three points too high.
The main risk is Curry going supernova and the Warriors building a 20-point lead by halftime. But even accounting for that possibility, I trust Portland’s offense to keep this game competitive enough to cover 10.5 points. This is a two-unit play on the Blazers plus the points, and I feel confident this number holds up over 48 minutes of basketball.
