The massive Warriors -13.5 spread is a direct result of the Jazz’s miserable 1-6 road record, but the line is severely inflated by the Warriors’ catastrophic frontcourt injuries. With Jonathan Kuminga (OUT), Al Horford (OUT), and Draymond Green (Q) all compromised, the Warriors lack the defensive personnel and depth to sustain a blowout margin. With the final score predicted to finish with only a 9-point margin, the Jazz +13.5 is the clear contrarian value play, betting on Lauri Markkanen’s 29.3 PPG to exploit Golden State’s thin rotation.
The Setup: Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are laying 13.5 points at Chase Center against a Jazz team that’s 1-6 on the road and just got torched by the Lakers at home. Golden State’s sitting pretty at 5-1 at home, and the books are practically begging you to take Utah and those juicy points. But here’s the thing—when a line looks this obvious, that’s exactly when Vegas burns you. The Warriors are dealing with some serious injury concerns with Kuminga out and Draymond questionable, while the Jazz are missing their defensive anchor Walker Kessler for the entire season. Lauri Markkanen’s been putting up video game numbers at 29.3 PPG, but can one man carry a 5-11 team against Steph Curry at home? The market’s disrespecting Utah here, but I’m not sure they deserve respect with that 1-6 road record screaming “fade me.”
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 24, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Chase Center
Spread: Golden State Warriors -13.5 (-110) | Utah Jazz +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors -909 | Jazz +573
Total: Over/Under 239.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Look at that moneyline—the Warriors at -909? That’s basically the books saying Golden State wins this game 90% of the time. But 13.5 points is a massive number in the NBA, and there’s a reason for it. The Jazz are an absolute disaster on the road at 1-6, and they’re coming off a home loss to the Lakers where they couldn’t close out a two-point game. Golden State’s 5-1 at Chase Center, and even with Kuminga sidelined and Draymond’s status up in the air, they’ve got Steph Curry averaging 28.6 PPG and Jimmy Butler chipping in 20.1 PPG. The total sitting at 239.5 tells you the books expect a high-scoring affair, which makes sense when you’ve got Markkanen dropping 29.3 PPG and Keyonte George adding 23.1 PPG for Utah. The problem? The Jazz can’t stop anybody without Kessler protecting the rim, and that’s a season-ending injury that’s gutted their interior defense. This number screams “take the favorite and run,” but I’ve seen this movie before—when the public’s all over a home favorite laying double digits, that’s exactly the spot where the dog covers even in a blowout loss.
Utah Jazz Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Jazz are a mess, plain and simple. That 5-11 record tells you everything, but dig deeper and it gets uglier—they’re 1-6 on the road, which is borderline unplayable territory. Lauri Markkanen is having a career year at 29.3 PPG and 6.1 RPG, and Keyonte George is emerging as a legitimate secondary scorer at 23.1 PPG and 7.2 APG. That’s a potent one-two punch that can score with anybody. The problem is Walker Kessler’s season-ending shoulder surgery has destroyed their rim protection. Kessler was averaging 14.4 PPG and 10.8 RPG before going down, and losing that kind of interior presence is devastating. Georges Niang’s also out with a foot injury, taking away another rotation piece. This team can score—you don’t have two guys averaging over 23 PPG without offensive firepower—but they can’t defend, they can’t win on the road, and they’re coming into the toughest building in the Western Conference. That’s a recipe for getting boat-raced.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
The Warriors are 9-9 overall, but don’t let that .500 record fool you—they’re 5-1 at Chase Center, and that’s where they do their damage. Steph Curry’s still Steph Curry at 28.6 PPG, and the addition of Jimmy Butler at 20.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.8 APG gives them a legitimate two-way wing they’ve been missing. Jonathan Kuminga’s absence hurts—he’s been solid at 13.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG—but the bigger concern is Draymond Green’s questionable status with that foot issue. Draymond’s the defensive quarterback, and without him, the Warriors lose some of their identity. Al Horford’s also out with sciatica for at least three games, which thins out the frontcourt rotation. But here’s the thing: even banged up, this is a Warriors team that’s 5-1 at home, and they’re facing a Jazz squad that can’t defend and can’t win on the road. The matchup favors Golden State in every conceivable way, which is exactly why this line feels like a trap.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: can the Jazz keep pace with the Warriors at Chase Center? Golden State’s 5-1 home record suggests they’re nearly unbeatable in San Francisco, while Utah’s 1-6 road mark says they’re practically unbackable away from Salt Lake City. The pace should favor Golden State—they’ll push the tempo with Curry and Butler in transition, and the Jazz don’t have the defensive personnel to slow them down without Kessler anchoring the paint. Markkanen and George can score, but they’re going to have to do it in a track meet, and that’s not Utah’s game. The Warriors will attack the rim relentlessly knowing there’s no rim protector waiting for them, and that should lead to easy buckets and free throws all night. The injury situations cut both ways—Utah’s missing their defensive anchor for the season, while Golden State might be without Draymond and is definitely without Kuminga. But the Warriors have the depth and home court to overcome it. Sharp money knows what’s up here: the Warriors should win comfortably, but 13.5 is a monster number that gives Utah multiple backdoor cover opportunities in garbage time.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m going Jazz +13.5 for 2 units, and here’s why: yes, the Warriors should win this game. Probably comfortably. But 13.5 points is a massive number, and the Jazz have enough offensive firepower with Markkanen and George to keep this from turning into a complete blowout. The Warriors are banged up with Kuminga out and Draymond questionable, and even at home, laying double digits in the NBA is a dangerous proposition. The total at 239.5 suggests a high-scoring game, which means the Jazz will get their points even in a loss. I’m not saying Utah wins outright—that 1-6 road record is disqualifying—but they cover in a 118-107 type game where they hang around just enough. The market’s disrespecting Utah here, and while they deserve some disrespect, they don’t deserve to be treated like a 14-point dog with two 23+ PPG scorers. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because this is exactly the spot where the favorite wins but the dog covers. Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it—give me the points all day long.
