The Golden State Warriors head into Minneapolis as a 6.5-point underdog, searching for answers after Jimmy Butler’s season-ending ACL tear. My ATS pick (taking the -6.5) hinges on whether Minnesota’s 7th-ranked defense can suffocate a depleted Golden State roster that has struggled to find secondary scoring in back-to-back losses.
The Setup: Warriors at Timberwolves
The Warriors are getting 6.5 points on Saturday at Target Center, and that number tells you everything about what Golden State looks like without Jimmy Butler. The Timberwolves are laying nearly a touchdown at home against a Warriors squad that just dropped their second straight since Butler went down for the season with a knee injury. Minnesota sits at 27-18 and ranks 7th in the West, while Golden State has fallen to 25-21 and 8th in the conference. But here’s what matters: the Warriors are 8-14 on the road this season, and now they’re traveling without their second-leading scorer and with Jonathan Kuminga also sidelined. Stephen Curry dropped 38 in Dallas on Thursday and still couldn’t get Golden State over the line. That’s the reality of this rotation right now—Curry can give you elite shot-making, but the depth behind him is razor-thin, and Minnesota has the two-way efficiency to exploit that over 48 minutes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
When: Saturday, January 24, 2026, 5:30 ET
Where: Target Center
Watch: ABC
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Timberwolves -6.5 (-110) | Warriors +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -250 | Warriors +200
- Total: 235.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing in Golden State’s rotation collapse. Butler’s season-ending knee injury removed 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game from a Warriors team that was already struggling to find consistent depth. Now add Kuminga’s absence—he left Wednesday’s game in Dallas and won’t suit up here—and you’re looking at a Golden State rotation that’s asking Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, and Gary Payton to absorb significant minutes against one of the West’s better two-way teams. Minnesota counters with Anthony Edwards averaging 29.6 points, Julius Randle at 22.6 points and 7.0 rebounds, and Jaden McDaniels chipping in 15.1 points. The Timberwolves are 15-7 at home this season, and they’re getting a Warriors team on a back-to-back after playing in Dallas on Thursday. The 6.5-point spread reflects Minnesota’s home-court advantage, their depth edge, and Golden State’s inability to generate consistent offense beyond Curry. The total sitting at 235.0 suggests the market expects Minnesota to control pace and force Golden State into half-court execution without the playmaking Butler provided.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Golden State’s offense lives and dies with Stephen Curry, who’s averaging 27.4 points and 4.9 assists this season. He just went for 38 in Dallas, but the Warriors still lost 123-115 because the supporting cast couldn’t generate enough efficiency. Brandin Podziemski is averaging 12.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, but he’s not a primary creator who can take pressure off Curry for extended stretches. Without Butler and Kuminga, the Warriors are leaning heavily on role players who aren’t built to carry offensive possessions. The 8-14 road record is the key context here—Golden State struggles away from Chase Center, and now they’re traveling on a back-to-back with a depleted rotation. Defensively, the Warriors don’t have the size or rim protection to consistently contain Randle and Edwards in the paint. This is a team that needs Curry to be perfect for 35+ minutes, and even then, they’re vulnerable to runs they can’t answer.
Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota’s strength is balance. Anthony Edwards is the engine at 29.6 points per game, but Randle gives them a second creator who can punish mismatches and facilitate from the elbow. McDaniels provides two-way versatility at 15.1 points, and the Timberwolves have enough depth to rotate fresh bodies against a Warriors team playing its second game in two nights. The 15-7 home record matters because Minnesota controls pace at Target Center and forces opponents into half-court sets where their size and length create problems. Chicago just beat them 120-115 on Thursday, but that was a game where the Bulls hit shots and the Timberwolves couldn’t stop a 13-0 run late. Against a Warriors team without Butler and Kuminga, Minnesota has the defensive tools to limit Golden State’s secondary options and force Curry into contested looks. The Timberwolves don’t need to be perfect—they just need to stay disciplined and make Golden State’s role players beat them.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to possession efficiency and rotation depth. Golden State is playing on a back-to-back, and their rotation is stretched thin without Butler and Kuminga. That means extended minutes for players who aren’t primary creators, and Minnesota has the defensive personnel to exploit that. Edwards and McDaniels can switch across multiple positions, and Randle gives the Timberwolves a physical advantage in the paint that Golden State can’t match. The Warriors need Curry to carry the offensive load for 35+ minutes, but even when he dropped 38 in Dallas, they couldn’t generate enough complementary scoring to win. Minnesota’s advantage is simple: they can rotate fresh defenders at Curry and force Golden State’s role players to execute in the half-court. Over the course of 95-100 possessions, that depth edge compounds. The total at 235.0 reflects the likelihood that Minnesota controls pace and limits Golden State’s transition opportunities. If the Timberwolves can keep this game in the half-court and make the Warriors grind through possessions, the efficiency gap widens. Golden State’s 8-14 road record tells you they struggle to find rhythm away from home, and now they’re doing it without two rotation pieces who provided scoring and playmaking.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the number with Minnesota. The Warriors are too thin right now, and Golden State’s 8-14 road record reflects their inability to generate consistent offense away from home. Curry can give you 35-40 points, but the supporting cast isn’t built to carry possessions without Butler and Kuminga. Minnesota’s 15-7 home record and their balance with Edwards, Randle, and McDaniels give them the depth edge to pull away in the second half. The back-to-back factor matters—Golden State played in Dallas on Thursday, and now they’re traveling to face a rested Timberwolves team with the defensive length to make Curry work for everything. The risk is Curry getting nuclear and dragging Golden State to a cover, but the math says Minnesota’s depth and home-court advantage are worth more than 6.5 points against this depleted Warriors rotation. The Timberwolves control pace, force Golden State into half-court execution, and cover by double digits.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves -6.5 for 2 units.
