Just 24 hours after a lopsided affair, the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves meet again at Target Center. With Jimmy Butler out for the season and Jonathan Kuminga sidelined, our betting preview examines if Minnesota can snap their losing skid and cover as a 7.5-point favorite.
The Setup: Warriors at Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are laying 7.5 at Target Center on Monday night against a Warriors squad that just dismantled them 111-85 less than 48 hours ago. Minnesota’s sitting on a five-game losing streak—their longest skid in over three years—and the market still trusts them as a full touchdown favorite in the immediate rematch. That tells you everything about how the Warriors’ injury situation has shifted the calculus here. Golden State’s down Jimmy Butler for the season and Jonathan Kuminga for an extended stretch, both sidelined with knee issues. The Warriors got 20 steals and held Minnesota to 85 points on Sunday, but that defensive performance came against a Timberwolves team that’s now desperate to stop the bleeding at home. The line reflects Minnesota’s structural advantages in this spot, even after getting embarrassed.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Golden State Warriors (26-21) at Minnesota Timberwolves (27-19)
Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Target Center
TV: Peacock
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Warriors +7.5 (-110) | Timberwolves -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors +237 | Timberwolves -303
Total: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Minnesota a full possession edge despite Sunday’s blowout loss, and the reasoning comes down to depth and home-court context. The Timberwolves are 15-8 at Target Center this season, while the Warriors sit at 9-14 on the road. That’s a six-game gap in venue-specific performance, which translates to roughly 3-4 points of spread value before you factor in anything else. Add in Golden State’s injury crisis—Butler’s done for the year, Kuminga’s week-to-week with left knee soreness after exiting Thursday’s game—and you’re looking at a rotation that’s running on fumes. Stephen Curry’s still putting up 27.3 points per game, but the supporting cast has thinned considerably. Brandin Podziemski at 12.2 points per game becomes your second-most reliable scoring option in this configuration.
Minnesota counters with Anthony Edwards averaging 29.7 points and Julius Randle chipping in 22.3 points with 7.0 boards. The Timberwolves have the personnel advantage across the board, and the 7.5-point spread reflects the expectation that they’ll assert that depth over 48 minutes. The total sitting at 232.5 suggests the market expects a faster pace than Sunday’s 85-point defensive slog. That makes sense—Minnesota’s not going to shoot that poorly twice in a row at home, and Golden State’s depleted rotation can’t sustain that level of defensive intensity on back-to-back nights.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Warriors are running a skeleton crew right now, and it shows in their road splits. At 9-14 away from home, they’ve struggled to maintain consistency when they’re not feeding off Chase Center energy. Curry’s carrying the offensive load at 27.3 points per game with 5.0 assists, but the efficiency drops when he’s the only legitimate scoring threat defenses need to account for. Podziemski’s emergence at 12.2 points has been helpful, but he’s not a guy who collapses defenses or creates easy looks for others consistently.
The loss of Butler—who was contributing 20.0 points, 5.6 boards, and 4.9 assists before the season-ending knee injury—removes a secondary creator and perimeter defender. Kuminga’s absence compounds the problem because it strips away another athletic wing who could attack closeouts and provide transition scoring. Seth Curry remains out with sciatic nerve irritation since early December, further limiting backcourt depth. This is a team that’s leaning heavily on Curry’s shot-making and hoping role players can hit open threes. On back-to-back nights, that’s a fragile formula.
Timberwolves Breakdown: The Other Side
Minnesota’s five-game losing streak is concerning, but the underlying talent level hasn’t evaporated. Edwards at 29.7 points per game gives them an elite shot creator who can generate offense in isolation or transition. Randle’s 22.3 points and 7.0 rebounds provide interior scoring and glass work that Golden State’s thin frontcourt can’t match. Jaden McDaniels adding 14.8 points gives them a third perimeter threat who can also defend multiple positions.
The Timberwolves’ 15-8 home record indicates they’re significantly better at Target Center than their overall 27-19 mark suggests. That home-court advantage becomes even more pronounced when they’re facing a road-weary opponent on a back-to-back. Minnesota’s biggest issue has been consistency—they laid an egg on Sunday with just 85 points—but the talent disparity in this matchup is stark. When you’re facing a Warriors team missing two rotation players who combine for 30-plus points per game, the margin for error widens considerably.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Minnesota can impose their depth advantage over the course of 48 minutes. The Warriors generated 20 steals on Sunday and turned that defensive chaos into easy transition buckets, but replicating that effort level on the second night of a back-to-back is a different challenge entirely. Golden State’s rotation is already stretched thin—you’re asking Curry to play heavy minutes and carry the offensive load without Butler or Kuminga to spell him or create secondary offense.
Minnesota’s response to Sunday’s embarrassment matters here. They shot poorly and got carved up defensively by a Warriors team that forced turnovers and ran. But at home, with an extra day to stew on that performance, the Timberwolves have every incentive to come out aggressive. Edwards and Randle should see increased usage, and the pace should tick up from Sunday’s defensive grind. The total at 232.5 suggests the market expects somewhere around 115-117 points for Minnesota and 115-117 combined from both sides. That’s reasonable if the Timberwolves shoot closer to their season averages and Golden State’s defense regresses to the mean after an outlier performance.
The key possession math here: if Minnesota controls the glass and limits second-chance opportunities for a Warriors team that lacks frontcourt depth, they should generate 5-7 more possessions over the course of the game. That’s where the 7.5-point spread gets covered—not in a blowout, but in a steady accumulation of advantages that compound over four quarters.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 7.5 with Minnesota at home. The Warriors played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday, and I don’t believe they can replicate that intensity on back-to-back nights with a rotation this depleted. Curry’s brilliant, but he’s one guy, and the Timberwolves have too many weapons for Golden State’s thin supporting cast to contain. Edwards and Randle should feast in the paint, and Minnesota’s home-court advantage is real—15-8 at Target Center versus 9-14 for the Warriors on the road tells you everything about venue-specific performance.
The main risk here is Minnesota’s current funk—five straight losses will mess with any team’s confidence. But this is a get-right spot at home against a team they just lost to, and the talent gap is undeniable. The Warriors are running on fumes, and the Timberwolves have every reason to assert their depth and physicality over 48 minutes. I expect a more competitive game than Sunday’s blowout, but Minnesota should pull away in the second half as Golden State’s legs give out.
BASH’S BEST BET: Timberwolves -7.5 for 2 units.
