2023 AFC South Betting Preview: Win Total Projections
Everyone knows the AFC is loaded this year, but there must be some weak teams. As we walk through the AFC South, we are going to find two or possibly three of the worst teams in the Conference. The NFC South and AFC North are the divisions that the AFC South will do battle with this year. Both divisions are a mixed bag. Rookie quarterbacks will determine the ceilings for two of these teams, which generally doesn’t work out very well. Here are some thoughts about how to play BOVADA.LV’s win totals and some other bets.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 9.5 Wins -130
Doug Pederson took over the reins in Jacksonville in 2022 and completely turned the franchise around. They sat at 4-8 after week 13, then proceeded to reel off five straight wins to win the division before beating the Chargers in the playoffs and eventually losing by a touchdown to the Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence played like the quarterback everyone expected coming out of Clemson rather than the overmatched QB we saw under Urban Meyer. Now the Jags are the overwhelming favorite to repeat atop the division, which is hard to argue with when looking at the other three teams, but that is a new dynamic for the team to overcome. I think Pederson can coach his team through it, and although it will be new for Lawrence at the professional level, it is very similar to the expectations for his final year at Clemson. The Jaguars bring back all of their skill players and add prolific wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who was suspended last year. They did lose a key piece of their offensive line in tackle Jawaan Taylor. That will be a challenge, but Pederson should be able to figure that out. Surprisingly the Jags’ defense ranked 12th in opponents’ points allowed last year, which is very respectable. I like Jacksonville Over based on how much better they are compared to their division, and I think Lawrence establishes himself as the top 5 QB this year. Lawrence’s Touchdown and Yard props are right where he finished last year, so I wouldn’t bet those Over since there is always a chance he misses a couple of games, but I like his interception total Under 10.5, -115. Last year he only threw 8, and if he misses games, it helps in this case.
Tennessee Titans: Under 7.5 -105
Mike Vrabel has earned a reputation as one of the best coaches in the NFL, and through 10 games last year, he was earning it. His Titans sat at 7-3, comfortably leading the AFC South, when the wheels fell off. QB Ryan Tannehill got hurt, rookie QB Malik Willis was absolutely horrible, and Tennessee would not win another game. I still believe in Vrabel, but this roster has no business winning eight games. The Titans made a splash in July when they signed DeAndre Hopkins, who will join Treylon Burks to form a solid receiving 1-2 punch, and along with Derrick Henry, give OC Tim Kelly lots of options. But that’s where the talent ends for Tennessee. The biggest problem is the offensive line, which, even with the addition of 1st round pick Peter Skoronski will be a bottom 5 unit. Tannehill has proven he won’t protect himself, so we should expect he will miss time again this year, and Henry will have defenders hitting him behind the line of scrimmage before he can get up a head of steam. The defense was mediocre at best last year, though they will get back Harold Landry to line up next to Jeffrey Simmons, who will strike fear in opposing offenses. However, their defense gave up the most passing yards in the league last year, and the back end won’t be any better. I look for back-to-back losing seasons for Vrabel and expect the Titans not get to 8 wins. I also like Under 5.5 wins at +205. The player props are already low for Tennessee, and as I prefer to primarily play player props Under, I would not fire on them.
Indianapolis Colts: Under 6.5 +105
This is my favorite bet in this division. The Colts were a clown show last year after the firing of Frank Reich in week 10. ESPN Commentator and Owner Jim Irsay’s buddy Jeff Saturday came in to coach the team to a 1-7 record in their final eight games and be the most ridiculed team in recent history. This year Shane Steichen takes over after serving as the Eagles’ Offensive Coordinator to try to work some of the Jalen Hurts magic with 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson. Richardson may be a better athlete and runner than Hurts, but he completed only 54% of his passes at Florida last year. The early reports out of Colts camp are not good, to the point that Richardson may not even start the year on the field. There is no basis to think he is ready to take on NFL defenses.
Additionally, star running back Jonathan Taylor is having a Twitter war with Irsay. The Colts need Taylor to return to his 2021 form to give the offense a chance, as Richardson learns, but this situation is going down a bad path and may not get fixed. On top of these issues, the offensive line that was a top unit a few years ago wasn’t very good last year and will be about the same this year. Their defense was 28th in the league in points allowed, so they will be playing from behind, which makes things worse for the offense. At plus money, I love the Colts Under. I also like Richardson passing yards Under 2700, +100.
Houston Texans: Over 6.5 +115
The other rookie QB in this division is C.J. Stroud, 2nd overall pick from Ohio State. Stroud is considered more pro-ready as a passer than Richardson, but of course, it is a big jump from the Big 10 to the NFL. I think the Texans are in a better spot to support their new QB, which will give him a better chance of success. Houston has a much better offensive line and a solid running game to make life easier on Stroud. Though rookie runner Dameon Pierce wore down as 2022 progressed, he proved he is a legitimate NFL back, and ex-Bill Devin Singletary joins the backfield to even out the load. DeMeco Ryans is the 3rd Texan head coach in 3 years, but they should be the guy that has led the team for several years. Ryans led the 49er defense last year and will have the top edge rusher in the draft Will Anderson Jr. to improve the defense, which has to be better than Lovie Smith’s stale cover two scheme last year. Ryans will breathe some life into this franchise, and they will surprise the league with at least seven wins.
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