San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 11, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Lumen Field
Seattle is a 3-point home favorite over San Francisco with a total of 46.5. My play is the 49ers plus the points.
San Francisco is the best team in football right now. The 49ers are 4-0 and lead the NFL in EPA per play, and Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play. They’ve beaten the Rams and Broncos along the way. Getting a field goal with an unbeaten team that’s playing this efficiently is the kind of spot I want.
Seattle’s offense is the weaker unit in this matchup. The Seahawks rank 29th in rushing EPA, and they’re without Jadarian Price, their Week 1 starting running back, who is on injured reserve. An offense that can’t run has to beat San Francisco through the air, and the 49ers rank second in the league in limiting explosive plays on defense. If Seattle can’t hit big plays, it will have to string together long drives against one of the better defenses in the league.
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The playoff blowout is in the rearview. Seattle crushed San Francisco 41-6 in the divisional round last January on the way to its Super Bowl title. But the 49ers won at Seattle in last season’s opener, and San Francisco was dealing with key injuries in the other meetings. San Francisco is 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, and this series has usually been competitive. Kyle Shanahan’s group has had all offseason to think about that playoff loss.
The line has moved toward Seattle. The Seahawks opened as 2.5-point favorites and are now laying 3. That puts the most common NFL margin on the 49ers’ side. A Seattle win by exactly three is a push, and anything less is a cover.
The risk is San Francisco’s defense without Nick Bosa. Bosa is out, and the 49ers are also likely to be without safety Marques Sigle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Seattle’s defense is elite too, ranking first in limiting explosive plays, and Lumen Field is one of the hardest road environments in the league. But the 49ers are the better team on a per-play basis, and in a game projected to be decided by a field goal, I’ll take the points with the more efficient offense.
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers +3
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