Atlanta Falcons (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. New York Giants (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)
NFL Week 2
Date/Time: Sunday, September 20, 1:00pm
Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, NJ
TV:FOX
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ATL +2.5/NYG -2.5
Over/Under Total: 51
This Sunday at 1:00pm, the 1-0 Atlanta Falcons will head into East Rutherford in attempt to start the 2015 season at 2-0. The home team Giants sit at 0-1 after a heartbreaking loss this past Sunday night to the Dallas Cowboys. New York pretty much controlled the entire game but in the final moments made some boneheaded play calls and the clock management looked like that of a local YMCA coach. However, you live you learn. The Falcons were also in control of their game from the start only to see the lead slip away late, but a field goal by kicker, Matt Bryant, a missed field goal by Cody Parkey, and a late interception by Ricardo Allen sent Atlanta to the upset win over the Eagles on Monday night by a 26-24 score. I see this game being another one that goes down to the very end and this point spread is tight.
The Giants open as a 2.5 home favorite over the Falcons, and as we speak, 61% of the cash is being laid on the home Giants, while just 39% of bettors are putting their faith in the Falcons. The over under has been set at 51 total points and 57% of the gamblers are laying the over. Both teams covered their week one spreads, so this week, something has to give in that areanot that its a big deal this early on.
The Atlanta Falcons have officially begun the Dan Quinn Era. Coming from Seattle and taking over the Falcons all time winningest head coach, Mike Smith, who was fired after horrible 2013 and 2014 seasons, Quinn has already put his stamp on the Falcons defense. A defense that was considered the worst in the league over the last two seasons, came into Monday night against the high flying Chip Kelly scheme that the Eagles run and in the first half shut them down. When I say shut them down, it was nasty. The second half, the Eagles upped the tempo and had much more success, but in the final seconds, it was the Falcons defense that made the play to seal the game with an interception of Sam Bradford that hit the hands of Jordan Matthews while attempting to drive for the winning field goal. This weeks game against the Giants should honestly not be as tough of a match-up for the Atlanta Falcons defense. The Giants play a much slower tempo and it will allow the Falcons defense to not get gassed and also give them time to make the substitutions needed in the appropriate situations. Offensively, the Falcons looked pretty good. Julio Jones is establishing himself as one of the best wide outs in the league, and Matt Ryan is still a top ten QB. Ryan, however, did make a few boneheaded throws, but when the Falcons needed him most, he drove them down for the score. The key to this game is for Atlanta to again play solid defense. Do not miss tackles, pressure Eli Manning, and for the offense, do not turn the ball over. Turnovers is what nearly lost the last game for the Birds. If they do that in MetLife Stadium, it will not be as easy to overcome.
The New York Giants should be 1-0. Yea, and the Seattle Seahawks SHOULD have handed the ball to Lynch in the Super Bowl. Fact is, the Giants are looking for their first win of the 2015 season and an 0-2 start would not be good, especially being in the NFC East battling with both Dallas and Philly for playoff spots. Against the Cowboys, the Giants defense played solidfor a half or so. Forcing turnovers, scoring on defense, and just flat out making life tough for Romo and the boys. Everything seemed to be going the Giants way, until their own coaching staff got in the way. I am still puzzled at some of the playcalling down the stretch and I believe a few more running plays and we are talking about a totally different outcome. Well, now the Giants are at home and need a win, bad. The key to this game is to get after Matt Ryan. The Falcons offensive line has been their downfall for two years, but against the Eagles, they didnt look TOO bad. Not only that, but Atlanta just signed Jake Long, who at one time was a number one overall pick to add depth to the O-Line. Rumor is that Long will not play til week three but that has not been totally confirmed. Regardless, if the Giants defense does not get after Matt Ryan, he and Julio Jones will play catch all day and it could get really ugly. Long offensive drives and keep the Falcons offense off the field. THAT is how New York wins and covers.
To me this is a toss up. In my opinion, these teams are very similar from a talent standpoint. The home crowd will make a difference, and in recent history, the Falcons have not faired well against the Giants on the road. With that said, 61% of the public taking a home favorite? That just seems too easy. I think the Dan Quinn Era starts 2-0 and I think the Atlanta Falcons again escape with another nail biter win by a 24-23 score.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: ATLANTA FALCONS +2.5 AND UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL OF 51
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