Barking Dog Alert: Dolphins vs. Jets

by | Last updated Oct 6, 2022 | nfl

Miami Dolphins (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 9, 2022 at 1 PM EDT

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey


Point Spread: MIA -3.5/NYJ +3.5 (Bovada – Grab a 50% bonus up to $250 and bet at the football sportsbook with the most props of any other! Plus, they’ll give you a rebate on every bet; win, lose or draw!)

Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Miami Dolphins come to MetLife Stadium on Sunday for an AFC East showdown with the New York Jets. With a 24-20 road win over the Steelers on Sunday, the Jets are a mild surprise at 2-2. They have some pieces back and look to catch a suddenly troubled Miami team coming into town. At 3-1, the Dolphins are coming off a 27-15 loss to the Bengals, where they lost their QB. They had the long week to get it together but still face a tough road-test against their divisional rival on Sunday.

What to Make of the Dolphins

You almost have to wonder about any residual letdown from what was really a deflating moment with Tua Tagovailoa last Thursday. Beyond that are the somewhat dim prospects of moving forward with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and others running loose in this offense, the QB position is important. While Tua didn’t have a cannon arm, and Bridgewater should still get some production through the air, it’s not ideal. You can do a lot worse for a backup quarterback than Teddy, but you still can’t expect some of the fireworks we have seen recently from this offense. To his credit, Bridgewater racked up decent yardage and connected well with Hill, though he did toss a pick on Thursday in relief of Tua.

In this game, a possible ‘Fins backer could take some solace in a few things. One is that they’re playing the Jets. And though the Jets enter this at 2-2 and have cause for some real optimism, it’s not the toughest road spot. They got some extra time when it was really needed, having last played on Thursday. And though the Miami system as a whole has caught some flack in the past week, Mike McDaniel has shown a certain offensive flair, and given some time, you could almost see him making things work a little even with an old hand like Bridgewater, who is on his fourth team in as many years.

Jets Not Looking Bad

With road wins over the Browns and Steelers, the Jets have shown some pluck this season. Breece Hall has been productive as a rookie back, and along with Michael Carter, they have an interesting tandem in the backfield. Rookie receiver Garrett Wilson has also delivered, with new addition tight end Tyler Conklin. Throw in Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Braxton Berrios, and Zach Wilson returns with a nice set of tools at his disposal. There was some understandable rust on the second-year former top pick with a lot of errant throws on Sunday, along with two costly picks. But a win is a win, and he looks to get better moving forward. Still, until we see him do it, Wilson still has something to prove.

With a lot of attention on Wilson and offense in general, it might escape most people’s attention that the Jets aren’t the automatic failure on “D” that some assume. They might not get mistaken as a good defense, perhaps, but they didn’t allow a complete carnival to Baltimore and did enough against Cleveland and Pittsburgh while giving up 27 to the Bengals’ high-powered offense. They’re not getting run over and have some burgeoning bright spots, including a pass defense that gets a boost with Sauce Gardner and LeMarcus Joyner. With Bridgewater now running the Miami offense, this at least shakes out as a spot where the Jets’ defense can make an impact.

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Can Wilson Step Up?

It’s a bad reflection on a number-one pick when you’re thinking if it’d be better with Flacco in there. You almost wonder if that extreme pass-heavy approach could work against a Miami pass defense that has been really leaky this season. There were the scoring extravaganzas against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and even though they kept the score down and helped get the win, Josh Allen did a lot through the air against this bunch too. That led to a big passing day for Cincy last week. Wilson has yet to forge much of a reputation, but you can sense where this is a line in the sand in his mind against a divisional foe where he needs to showcase his wares in what seems like an exploitable spot.

We see the Jets trying to make a move and at least graduate from the ranks of a doormat and move into a level of some respectability. This is a show-and-prove spot. The defense won’t be facing a dialed-in Tua feasting aerially or a defense that is gifted in stopping aerial yards. Both sides of the ball, the coaching staff, and everyone should be putting a lot into a home spot that sure has the looks of one of those fork-in-the-road moments for the Jets. And after two 7-point losses to the Dolphins last season, maybe they’re in a spot to reverse those fortunes a bit in this game.

Take the Points

The Dolphins may have gotten lucky by drawing the Jets on the long week, but it’s still a tough road spot where it’s hard to imagine them being shot out of a cannon after last week. It could be wrong to think that, especially against a Jets team, that is anything but automatic or dependable. I just think that with a defense that has gotten a little better and an offense with more firepower that surfaces with more regularity, they can hang in there in this one. I like the Jets to cover the spread at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New York Jets plus 3.5 points. Bet your Week 5 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 125% real cash bonus when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook! They’ll give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite teams as well!