Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium
Cincinnati is a 7-point road favorite over Miami with a total of 42.5. My play is the Under 42.5.
Miami can’t score. The Dolphins are 0-4 and haven’t topped 13 points in a game this season. They have four offensive touchdowns through four weeks. Last week they managed 198 total yards in a 15-10 loss to Minnesota. Malik Willis is running an offense with few weapons, and De’Von Achane is still out. Asking this unit to carry its share of 43 points is a stretch.
Cincinnati’s receiving corps is banged up. Ja’Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol, Tee Higgins is dealing with an adductor strain, and Andrei Iosivas is out after thumb surgery. If Chase and Higgins can’t go, Joe Burrow is throwing to a depleted group of backups. The running game won’t take pressure off him either. The Bengals ran for 23 yards on 15 carries in last week’s 22-17 loss to Jacksonville, and Chase Brown had 10 yards on the ground.
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The market has already come down. Early totals on this game sat as high as 48.5, and the number has fallen to 42.5 as the Bengals’ injury news piled up. The drop is deserved. A Cincinnati offense without its top receivers and without a running game has trouble finishing drives in the red zone, which turns touchdowns into field goals.
The risk is Burrow. He threw for 428 yards against Jacksonville even with a thin receiving group, and he can pile up yards against a Miami defense that has been on the field a lot. He also threw two interceptions in that game. If the Bengals get short fields from Miami turnovers, a 31-14 game is possible. But the Dolphins’ offense is the anchor here, and a 24-13 type of game is the most likely outcome. That stays under.
The Pick: Bengals/Dolphins Under 42.5
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